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Amazon will open another fulfillment center in North Portland in 2018, creating 1,000 full-time jobs. That is in addition to the opening of fulfillment centers in Troutdale and Salem next year along with another 2,500 jobs. The Portland facility will be 918,400-square-feet. (OregonLive)

 

NORPAC Foods officially notified Oregon employment officials the company will close its Hermiston Foods plant in November and eliminate 199 jobs. The closure is tied to NORPAC's decision to sell its canning operations to Seneca Foods. (OBN)

 

Last week, the bull market that started in March 2009 moved ahead of the bull market from 1949 to 1956 to officially make it the second largest bull market gain since World War II. The current gain of 270% is second only to the 417% gain seen during the bull market of the 1990s. (LPL Research)

 

Communications chipmaker Qorvo, the combination in 2015 of Hillsboro-based TriQuint Semiconductor and North Carolina, RF Micro Devices, plans to eliminate an unspecified number of jobs. Qorvo's employs about 1,000 at a factory and administrative office in Hillsboro. Qorvo did not specify when the cuts will take place, or how large they will be. (Oregon Live)

 

The S&P 500 is down 2 and the NASDAQ is down 4.  The MSCI international index is higher.

Oil is down 53 cents at $50.16 a barrel.

Gold is down $21 at $1296 a Troy ounce.



Toys 'R' Us, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. They have 1,600 stores and 64,000 employees. Stores and online sites remain open. The company has debt from a $6.6 billion buyout in 2005 by private equity firms. It's the second-largest retail bankruptcy, trailing the filing in 2002 by Kmart. (Reuters)

 

The Commerce Department says housing starts slipped 0.8% in August. Single-family home permits fell 1.5%, while permits for the construction of multi-family homes soared 19.6%.

 

The Labor Department says import prices rose 0.6% in August. In the last 12 months import prices have surged 2.1%. The report also showed export prices rose 0.6% in August. They have increased 2.3% year-on-year.

 

FedEx will raise shipping rates in January. FedEx Express, Ground and Home Delivery will go up about 5%. The One Rate shipping, which offers a simple flat price, will increase 3.5% (CNBC) 

 

Gun stocks rose yesterday as President Trump prepares to ease rules for overseas sales of US guns. Strum Ruger stock was up 13% and American Outdoors was up 10%.     (Yahoo Finance)

 

The S&P 500 is up 1 and the NASDAQ is flat. The MSCI international index is higher. 

Oil is up 57 cents at $50.05 a barrel.

Gold is up $7 at $1318 a Troy ounce.



The Fed's policy making arm, the FOMC, will starts its sixth of eight meetings today. We do not expect a rate hike, but do expect to see the Fed announce the start of its balance sheet normalization program. Markets will be parsing the Fed statement, economic projections, and press conference comments for any sign of a shift in the Fed's inflation expectations and what that could mean for the future path of rate hikes. (LPL Research)

 

The Dow closed at a new high five consecutive days and was higher seven days in a row. Incredibly, the Dow had a 9-day new-high streak in July and August, and a 12-day new-high streak in February. The S&P 500, meanwhile, made new highs five of the past six days. (LPL Research)

 

The mining equipment market will grow next year boosting Caterpillar's business, according to UBS.  Caterpillar stock is up 33% year to date. 

 

The Wall Street Journal reports the damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma stands to hinder US economic growth as August saw a 0.9% drop in industrial production and a 0.2% decline in spending at retailers. Americans’ perceptions of the economy which was highest before the storms since 2000 and are now 1.5% lower, according to the University of Michigan.

 

The S&P 500 is up 9 and the NASDAQ is flat.  The MSCI international index is higher.  

Oil is up 33 cents at $50.25 a barrel.

Gold is flat at $1311 a Troy ounce.



98 days till Christmas and Macy's will increase by 20% the number of workers it hires during the holiday shopping season to fill online orders.  They will hire 18,000 holiday workers to fulfill online orders, an increase of about 3,000 from last year. Total hiring for the holiday season will be 83,000 workers. Target said it will hire 43% more seasonal workers, or a total of 100,000, for the holiday season. Staffing firm Radial expects retailers, to hire 35% more workers this holiday season.

 

The Commerce Department says retail sales fell in August by 0.2%. The hurricanes put the brakes on shoppers as motor vehicle sales tumbled 1.6%. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and has increased at a 3.3% rate through the second quarter. Sales at building material stores fell 0.5%, receipts at service stations increased 2.5%, sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 0.7% and receipts at clothing stores dropped 1.0%.

 

People are cutting the cord at a faster rate according to eMarketer. There will be 22.2 million cord cutters this year. That is up more than 33% over 2016. As a result, TV ad spend expectations for 2017 are expected to expand by only 0.5% to $71.65 billion.

 

The S&P 500 is up 4 and the NASDAQ is up 10.  The MSCI international index is higher.

Oil is down 30cents at $49.59 a barrel.

Gold is down $9 at $1316 a Troy ounce.

 



The Labor Department says consumer prices rose 0.4% in August. These gains are the largest in seven months and CPI is up 1.9% year-on-year. Gasoline prices surged 6.3%, the biggest gain since January. Food prices rose 0.1% and the cost of rental accommodation surged 0.4%. .

The Census Bureau says Oregon's median household income is $59,135. Oregon's poverty rate is 13.3%.

President Donald Trump has blocked the $1.3 billion sale of Lattice Semiconductor to Chinese investors over national security concerns. Founded in Oregon 34 years ago by veterans of Tektronix and Intel, Lattice makes a class of programmable computer chip used in consumer gadgets and industrial and networking equipment. (OregonLive)

Chinese economic data was weaker than expected. Retail sales were up 10.1% (year-over-year); while industrial production grew at 6%, both less than expectations and previous data. (LPL Research)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio, the truth in wealth building, when we will talk about if inflation is about to take off.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



It was record closing highs for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq yesterday as the session marked the first time all three have closed at record highs on the same day since July 26th.

The Census Bureau reports middle-class income hit a record level in 2016. Median household income was $59,039, surpassing the previous record of $58,655 set in 1999. The poverty rate fell to 12.7%. Lowest since 2007.

Major events such as hurricanes have both human and economic impacts. Reinsurers lost almost 2% in market cap last week and gained almost all that back this week. It appears that economic growth in the third quarter could see a hit of -0.5% to -1.0% to GDP, bringing growth down to ~2.0%, due to storm damage. The rebuilding process, though, will last for some time, boosting output by a similar magnitude in ensuing quarters. Material, energy, and home improvement retailers are among those poised to potentially benefit. (LPL Research)

It is not just the big boys that have security worries. Bright Wood, Jefferson County’s biggest employer, has notified its 915 workers of a security breach. Names, birthdates, addresses and Social Security numbers may have been compromised. (KTVZ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



...without a big weekly decline. The S&P 500 has now gone 52 straight weeks without closing lower by at least 2%. This is the longest such streak since 61 weeks in a row that ended in late 1995. The longest ever was 90 consecutive weeks ending in December 1958. (LPL Research)

Busy week of economic data ahead. Small business optimism, labor market turnover, inflation, industrial production, and retail sales. Overseas, a plethora of Chinese data is due out, including inflation, retail sales, industrial production, money supply, and new loan growth. (LPL Research)

The National Federation of Independent Business reported its small business optimism index for August rose 0.1% to 105.3, matching the year-to-date high posted in January. Some 28% of small business owners reported raising employees' pay in the past three months. Only 15% of small business owners are planning to raise wages in the next three months. Business owners said their single most important problem is taxes (20%), followed by quality of labor (19%). Government regulations and red tape (16%) and cost/availability of insurance (11%) were the third and fourth most-cited problems.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



When I was a kid it was the go to place, but the Salishan Spa & Golf Resort on the Oregon Coast is up for auction. The minimum starting bid is $5.25 million. The resort underwent a $7 million remake over the past two years. The property is currently bank-owned. Built in 1965 Salishan sold in 1996 for $25.3 million and sold again in 2003 for $13 million. (PBJ)

Market leadership continues to shift as the healthcare sector hit new absolute and relative highs versus the S&P 500 Index. Biotechnology stocks are at their highest levels in over two years and small cap healthcare stocks are also working well for investors, which is one of the lone groups supporting small caps. (LPL Research)

Panasonic is eliminating 92 jobs as it closes its Salem solar energy operations. Layoffs will begin on November 4th. Panasonic bought the factory from Sanyo in 2012. Domestic solar producers have struggled to compete against less expensive Chinese imports. (Oregon Live)

The chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is floating the idea to provide relief for those suffering from the hurricanes by allowing affected residents to access their 401(k) retirement savings without paying a penalty, but pay taxes. Bad idea. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The Labor Department says worker productivity rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter.  Compared to the second quarter of 2016, productivity increased at a 1.3% rate. That is the strongest performance in two years.
Wage growth has remained sluggish even as the labor market nears full employment as unit labor costs fell at a 0.2% rate.

CNBC is reporting Toys R Us has hired a law firm to help restructure its roughly $400 million in debt due in 2018, a move that could include the marquee toy store filing for bankruptcy protection.

Yesterday officially marked 10 consecutive months without so much as a 3% correction for the S&P 500. Dating back to 1928, this is now the second longest streak ever without a 3% correction, bested only by 11 months in the mid-1990s. (LPL Research)

American Outdoor Brands, the former Smith and Wesson saw a sharp drop in quarterly earnings and sales, and lowered its fiscal 2018 guidance, as the firearms business slows. (CNBC)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will give you the truth in wealth building.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Portland-based helicopter operator Erickson has named Doug Kitani as their new CEO. Kitani is a West Point graduate who has worked in the defense contractor and aerospace industry for the past 14 years. For the past three years, he was CEO at IAP Worldwide Services. (Oregon Live)

Frozen concentrated orange juice futures are spiking higher as Hurricane Irma approaches Florida. In 2017 Florida was expected to produce more than half of the U.S. oranges and nearly half of the nation’s grapefruit. (CNBC)

Just 109 days till Christmas and Wal-Mart has started its holiday layaway plan. The program allows customers to put as little as $10 down to hold items with a minimum sales price of $50. (CNBC)

Nike has informed the State of Oregon it is terminating 490 workers. The reductions, all non-union workers, will take place by September 30th. Nike employs more than 70,000 workers world-wide and over 12,000 in Oregon. (PBJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



...and traders are back at their desks. The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.6% in August to mark its fifth consecutive monthly gain. The Dow has also gained five months in a row, while the Nasdaq has been higher nine of the past 10 months. On a total return basis, including dividends, the S&P 500 gained for the tenth consecutive month. That is the longest streak since 10 in a row in 1995. (LPL Research)

Apple is getting closer to the $1 trillion valuation mark. Shares of the iPhone maker hit another all-time high last week. At about $163, they are just $30 a share away from making Apple the first U.S. company to cross the $1 trillion threshold in terms of market capitalization. (CNBC)

Costco saw a 6.1% increase in U.S. same-store sales, excluding gasoline, for August, topping the 3.7% percent consensus estimate. (Reuters)

A sign of the digital age. As the human attention span shortens, so do the efforts to capture it. For NFL games on FOX this season, the network will debut six-second commercials. They'll be used along with the more traditional 15-second and 30-second spots. (NBC Sports)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Department of Labor says the US economy added 156,000 new jobs in August, 165,000 in the private sector and government cut 9,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate was up to 4.4%.

Reuters and Bloomberg report Oregon’s largest tech company, Lattice Semiconductor, is making a direct appeal to President Trump to salvage its sale to Chinese firm Canyon Bridge Capital Partners. The company, backed by the Chinese government, has made an offer for Lattice of $1.3 billion, or $8.30 a share.

Wilsonville based Flir Systems, says their new CEO is reorganizing.  Flir COO Tom Surran will resign effective September 30th. Flir is a manufacturer of night-vision and thermal imaging cameras. Flir reported $1.66 billion in revenue last year, and profits of $167 million.

The Commerce Department said U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% in July and inflation increased at a 1.4% annualized rate, its slowest pace since late 2015.
Personal income increased 0.4% last month. Wages and salaries advanced 0.5%.

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will talk about – is it better after 50?

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.

 



ADP says that private sector payrolls in August grew at its fastest pace in five months as companies added 237,000 positions. Service-related industries gained 204,000 jobs, construction 18,000 and manufacturing 16,000.

The Commerce Department says economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter with gross domestic product growing at a 3% annual rate.

A homeowner lawsuit accuses Wells Fargo of improperly charging thousands of customers nationwide to lock in interest rates when their mortgage applications were delayed. (Reuters)

Last week the S&P 500 Index posted its 50th consecutive week without posting a weekly decline of at least 2%. How meaningful is a streak of 50 consecutive weeks without a 2% drop? Well, for starters, this is only the sixth time in history it has happened. 2017 has been a very unvolatile year as far as markets are concerned. (LPL Research)

Gas prices could rise 25 cents a gallon or more for several weeks as the energy industry recovers from hurricane Harvey according to GasBuddy.  The flooding has shut down 13 refineries, erasing more than 10% of U.S. gasoline production capacity.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Wall Street Journal reports that America’s retailers and manufacturers are adding inventories, resulting in near-record levels of shipments of goods through US ports. Some 1.72 million 20-foot containers worth of goods arrived at US ports in July.  Automobile parts, furniture, and goods related to back-to-school needs were seen to have the largest growth.

Amazon will open a fulfillment center in Salem, its second in Oregon. The $90 million, 1 million-square-foot facility will be completed in fall of 2018. (OBN)

The Commerce Department said U.S. goods trade deficit increased 1.7% in July as exports fell 1.3%. Exports were weighed down by an 8.0% drop in shipments of motor vehicles. Imports fell 0.3%.

The Commerce Department also reported that wholesale inventories increased 0.4% in July. Retail inventories fell 0.2%.

The Consumer Confidence Index rose in August to 122.9
Consumer confidence is at its second best level this year. Those saying business conditions are "good" increased to 34.5%, while those who said business conditions were bad was 13.1%.  (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



As August winds down the S&P 500 is up 10% this year. But gold, is up about 12% in 2017 to nearly $1,330 an ounce, putting it on track for the best performance since 2010. It has been a great year for emerging markets, as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up more than 25%, more than double the 10% gain for the S&P 500. This shows why portfolio diversification is important. (CNN)

The hazelnut crop in Oregon is predicted to produce 36,000 tons of hazelnuts this year, down 18% from 2016. There are less nuts per tree, and the nuts were smaller than usual. Most of the decline has been to blight. Oregon produces 99% of the U.S. hazelnut crop, but only about 5% of the world crop, according to the Oregon Hazelnut Industry Office. (Oregon Live)

Do you still have to tip? Ford and Domino's are doing research trial that will see Ford cars equipped with self-driving technology deliver pizzas, as a way of figuring out how everyday people will react to, and interact with, autonomous service vehicles in the future. (TechCrunch)

Small-business hiring showed a slowdown for the sixth consecutive month in August says a report from Paychex.
Small-business wages continue to rise, reaching a 3%, or 76 cents, annual growth rate in August.  

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Orders for non-defense capital goods increased 0.4% in July. Shipments of capital goods jumped 1%. Business spending on equipment added 0.4% to the economy's 2.6% annualized growth pace in Q2, the most in nearly two years. Orders for machinery fell 1.4%, the biggest drop since May 2016. Orders for motor vehicles and parts fell 1.2%.  (Commerce Department)

Quintiles an integrated information and technology solutions healthcare provider will join the S&P 500 prior to the open on Tuesday replacing Whole Foods. (CNBC)

Hurricane Harvey will be impacting oil and gas prices. Oil prices initially rose on this news, but have since given back some of those gains. Gasoline prices are up, but this hurricane has hit the heart of U.S. refining; and as these refiners are shut down and this will result in a build-up of oil inventories, which will lead to lower oil prices. This is unusual, but not unheard of. How long any additional oil glut will last will be a function of how long refiners are closed, which is impossible to predict at this point. (LPL Research)

Remember you can also check out our blog at FinancialFocusRadio.com .

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Debt ceiling negotiations may be difficult and cause some market volatility. Some of us have painful memories of 2011 when we first learned of an arcane piece of federal legislation that led to Standard & Poor's decision to cut the U.S. credit rating from AAA. Those events drove the S&P 500 Index down 19.4% peak to trough between April and October of that year. The deadline to raise the debt ceiling is October 1st. (LPL Research)

The National Association of Realtors says existing home sales fell 1.3% last month. Home supply was down 9.0% from a year ago. Housing inventory has declined for 26 consecutive months. The median house price is $258,300, a 6.2% rise from one year ago. The number of days homes were on the market in July was 30.

Sears posted a $251 million loss and a 11.5% decline in sales for Q2. They also plan to close 28 more Kmart stores this year. That's in addition to the 180 Sears and Kmart stores it has shuttered this year, and the 150 stores it plans to close by the end of this quarter. Sears stock has fallen more than 40% over the past 12 months. (CNBC)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will answer your questions – with the truth in wealth building.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



PacificSource Health Plans posted a profit of $22 million on sales of $687 million in the first half of the year. That is much than profits of $5.2 million on sales of $620 million last year. In 2016, Portland-based Legacy Health bought 50% of the Springfield-based PacificSource for $100 million. PacificSource insures more than 300,000 people and has 3,900 employer clients in Oregon, Idaho and Montana. It employs more than 900 people, including 472 in Springfield and Eugene. (Eugene Register)

As interest rates rise and refinancing falls this could become a trend. Wells Fargo has laid off 72 people at its Vancouver call center due to fewer home foreclosures.  
Employees received a 60-day notice on August 10th. They will receive pay and benefits through Oct. 9. The call center will be closed. (PBJ)

New single-family home sales fell 9.4% in July, their lowest level in seven months. The housing market is being constrained by a shortage of properties, land and labor, which are driving up home prices. The inventory of new homes on the market rose 1.5%, its highest level since June 2009. At July's sales pace, it would take 5.8 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 5.2 months in June. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. (Reuters)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



We're starting to enter a slower period of news flow, which along with weak August seasonals could make markets more susceptible to volatility from things like political discussions, geopolitical factors, or other unexpected events in the near term. Earnings season is over and the economic calendar is slow. (LPL Research)

Beware of this potential bomb in your portfolio. Despite year-to-date returns of 4.79% according to the Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corporate Index, the sector is underperforming the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index. Pressure in the lower rated credit spreads is leading to underperformance this month. (LPL Research)

Second quarter earnings season is over, and it was a good one. The S&P 500 has produced a solid 12% year-over-year growth rate. Energy, financials, and technology shared the load in making the biggest contributions to earnings growth. (LPL Research)

The SEC has approved Arcimoto, the Eugene-based electric vehicle maker, to start selling shares to the public. The stock will be listed on the Nasdaq. The company looks to raise $30 million to pay debts, set up a Eugene factory and start up production. (The Register Guard)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Symposium begins later this week, taking place from August 24-26. This gathering of central bankers has taken place annually since 1978 and tends to be closely watched by markets. (LPL Research)

Macy's has named eBay executive Hal Lawton as its new president.  He will report to CEO Jeff Gennette. Lawton will join Macy's on September 8th. Macy's is restructuring its management ranks, cutting about 100 jobs. (CNBC)

The U.S., Mexico, and Canada have completed the opening round of renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement. However, tensions remain over certain areas, including the cars, signaling tough bargaining ahead. (WSJ)

Former General Electric chairman Jeff Immelt has become the front-runner candidate to become CEO of car-hailing company Uber. (Recode)

Goldman Sachs has received approval for a license to trade stocks in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government eased restrictions last year on foreign ownership in its stock market. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Amazon sold $16 billion in bonds this week and they had demand equivalent to the gross domestic product of the country Belarus. The money will be used to fund its acquisition of Whole Foods. (CNBC)

Factory output fell 0.1% in July, as auto production slowed. Overall industrial production, which adds output by mines and utilities, rose 0.2%. Mining output rose 0.5% and utility production rose 1.6%. (AP)

Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 232,000 near a six-month low. That is the lowest level since the week ending Feb. 25th when claims fell to 227,000, which was the best reading since March 1973. It was the 128th week that claims remained below 300,000. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller. (Reuters)

After five months of either stagnation or decline, NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index finally showed increased optimism. In July, the Index increased by 1.6 points to 105.2—due to a surge in the labor market with job creation and more hiring.

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will answer the question – Is the Trump Trade Dead?

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



U.S. home building fell unexpectedly by 4.8% in July. Single-family home building slipped 0.5%. Despite strong demand for housing, groundbreaking on single-family homes has slowed since posting 9-1/2-year highs in February. Homebuilders say they cannot find skilled labor, especially framers, and that buildable lots remain in short supply. Multi-family housing fell 15.3%. (CNBC)

Do transports matter? The weak action lately in transports has many wondering if this is a potential warning sign for the broader markets. The big worry stems from August 1, when the Dow closed at a new 52-week high and transports closed at a new 52-week low relative to the Dow. This rare combination also took place ahead of the 1973-1974 bear market, the 1987 crash, and the tech bubble in 2000. Keep your eyes peeled. (LPL Research)

Business inventories rose 0.5% their biggest increase in seven months as retailers accumulated stock. Car inventories increased 0.7%. At the current sales pace, it would take 1.38 months for businesses to clear shelves. (Reuters)

Wal-Mart beat the street as online purchases grew 60%. Same-store sales for U.S. stores climbed 1.7%. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Retail sales jumped 0.6% in July, the biggest increase in seven months. June was upwardly revised to a 0.3%. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is climbing at a 2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter. The savings rate dropped to 3.8% in the second quarter of this year from a rate of 6.2% in the second quarter of 2015. Car sales climbed 1.2%, service stations sales fell 0.4%, sales at clothing stores fell 0.2% and sales at online retailers jumped 1.3%.  (Commerce Department)

A federal judge says Costco owes Tiffany $19.4 million in damages over the sale of counterfeit Tiffany diamond engagement rings. Costco said it will appeal. (CNBC)

Reuters is reporting that a poll of economists says the majority believe that “the U.S. economic expansion will last at least another two years.”  The U.S. expansion has more than two years to go, according to 34 of 57 economists. Of those economists, 21 said it would last two to three years and 13 said more than three years.

The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index rose 4 points to the highest level since May and now stands at 68. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The index was at 59 last August. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Eugene-headquartered Papé Group, has purchased Rowand Machinery of Spokane. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Rowand Machinery is a John Deere dealer and has been in operation for 55 years. Papé now has 23 locations in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, California and Nevada. (Spokane Tribune)

Data related to economic activity remains largely supportive of slow and steady growth. Inflationary pressures remain elusive. Globalization, aging demographics, technological innovation, slow wage growth, and less than desired productivity gains have all combined to dim potential price increases, especially on the services side. Productivity continues to lag the average annual pace of +2.1% since WWII. Weakness in output-per-hour-worked has weighed on economic growth and living standards, and if it persists, will have a critical effect on the future trajectory of wages, prices, gross domestic product, tax receipts, and federal budget balances. This suggests a lack of urgency for the Fed to increase interest rates from current levels. (LPL Research)

Dick's Sporting Goods shares are down almost 16% as Q2 profits rose to $112.4 million, from $91.4 million a year ago. Sales rose 9.6% to $2.2 billion. Both fell short of street expectations.  Same-store sales for the year are now expected to be between flat to down. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



It was the calmest three weeks ever for stocks. You would never know it by reading the headlines, but the S&P 500 was in the midst of the calmest three-week period ever. In fact, during the past 15 trading sessions, ending 8/9/17, it had closed between 0.3% and -0.3% every single time. That has never happened in the history of the S&P 500 and the previous record was 10 back in 1969. The S&P 500 was down 1.45% yesterday. (LPL Research)

Producer prices fell in July by 0.1%, the biggest drop in 11 months. In the last 12 months PPI increased 1.9%. Last month, prices for services fell 0.2%. That accounted for more than 80% of the decrease in the PPI. Energy prices fell 0.3%, declining for a third straight month. Food prices were unchanged in July. (AP)

Jack In The Box reported a quarterly profit of $36.4 million. The burger chain had sales of $357.8 million in the period. Jack In The Box shares have declined 15% since the beginning of the year. (AP)

Portland, Oregon-based Electro Scientific Industries reported quarterly profits of $2.9 million, after reporting a loss a year earlier. The semiconductor testing equipment maker posted sales of $72.7 million in the quarter. Electro Scientific Industries shares are up 43% since the beginning of the year. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Oregon headquartered Craft Brew Alliance is building a new $23 million, 30,000-square-foot factory for its Kona Brewing brand in Kona, Hawaii. The new brewery is designed to produce up to 100,000 barrels of beer per year. (PBJ)

Nautilus, the Vancouver, Washington-based fitness equipment maker reported a second-quarter profit of $2.5 million or 8 cents per-share. The results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The company posted revenue of $77 million. Nautilus shares have dropped slightly more than 5% in the last 12 months. (AP)

RadiSys, the Hillsboro, Oregon-based provider of wireless infrastructure systems reported a loss of $7.6 million or 19 cents per-share. They had revenue of $35.1 million in the period. For the third quarter, RadiSys expects to lose 13 cents per share. Shares are down more than 50% from a year ago. (AP)

President Trump is a drag on the gun industry. Industry leader Sturm Ruger saw gun sales plunged 21% last quarter and profit was cut in half. (Money)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The US economy added 209,000 new jobs in July.  The unemployment rate holds steady at 4.3% (Labor Department)

In the slew of earnings results here are some regional companies you may have missed.

Alaska Air and its regional Horizon Air subsidiary reported quarterly earnings topping $2 billion for the first time ever and a profit of $296 million, or $2.38 per share. That's up nearly 14% from Alaska's profit a year ago. Horizon Air accounted for just 1% percent of the company's overall profit in 2016. So far, this year, flight cancellations have been mounting since January as Horizon has lost $16 million. (Oregon Live)

Columbia Sportswear had record second-quarter sales of $398.9 million, but lost $11.5 million, or 17 cents a share. The company lost $8.2 million, 12 cents per share, in the same period last year. The company's flagship Columbia brand saw sales increase 2 %, the Sorel brand of footwear sales climbed 71% from the prior year. The company said most of the 2017 sales growth will come from its own direct-to-consumer sales. (Oregon Live)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will talk about these record markets.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



U.S. factory goods climbed 6.5% in June, the biggest gain in nearly three years. The bulk of the increase came from a 131.2% surge in orders for civilian aircraft. Excluding orders of transportation equipment, which rose 19% overall, durable goods orders edged up 0.2% last month. (Commerce Department)

With lumber prices at $405 it has broken $400/MBF for only the 2nd time in the last 12 years.  So, why are lumber prices surging beyond already-healthy levels in mid-summer?  The answer as always is supply and demand.  This month the new boost in lumber prices is caused by extensive wildfires in British Columbia, accompanied by Canadian mill closures. (Sohn Report)

Coca-Cola plans to stop selling Coke Zero in the US in August, replacing it with a beverage with a different recipe, design, and name: Coca-Cola Zero Sugar. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar is already a hit outside the US, with growth figures reaching the teens. In the US, Coke Zero sales grew 3.5% in 2016, compared with Diet Coke's drop of 1.9%. (Yahoo)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will talk about these record markets.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The declining U.S. dollar is beginning to negatively impact foreign stocks. Since last Thursday, when the European Central Bank issued what was perceived to be somewhat hawkish comments, the euro has increased 1.5% bring foreign markets lower.  The US dollar has declined 8.2%, as measured by the DXY index, since the beginning of the year. This has benefited investors who have held international assets, as the value of the holdings in dollar terms has increased. (LPL Research)

 

Financials and tech strength drive solid earnings upside. With over 50% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, second quarter 2017 earnings are tracking +9.6% year over year, 1.6% ahead of estimates. Beat rates for both earnings (74%) and revenue (70%) are above average. The majority of the upside has been driven by financials and technology, although energy is still expected to make the biggest contribution to growth for the quarter. (LPL Research)

 

Procter & Gamble, maker of Pampers diapers and Crest toothpaste, reported quarterly results of earnings per share of 85 cents on sales of $16.08 billion. Cincinnati-based P&G managed to drive costs lower, which aided in boosting its profit. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.

 



This week the focus will likely be on earnings. Corporate earnings are likely to overshadow the Federal Reserve amid the busiest week of earnings season with nearly 40% of the S&P 500 reporting. The Fed holds their two-day monetary policy meeting with no rate hike expected. The U.S. economic calendar includes housing, manufacturing, durable goods, and second quarter gross domestic product. (LPL Research)

36.6% percent of household in 2016 rented, about the 1965 number of 37%.  That according to a report by the Pew Research Center.  U.S. households grew by 7.6 million over the past decade, but the number of households headed by owners remained relatively flat, while households headed by renters grew by nearly 10%.

Summit Bank expanding its current Bend branch by 745 sq ft and adding four new staff members. (Bulletin)

Hasbro makers of Star Wars, My Little Pony and Transformer toys saw sales rise 11% in Q2. U.S. and Canadian revenue grew 16% to 494.4M. The companies operating margin rate grew 60 bps to 10.3%. (Seeking Alpha)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Portland’s ban on new bulk fossil-fuel terminals has been rejected by the state Land Use Board of Appeals. LUBA said the zoning ordinance was an unconstitutional restraint on interstate commerce. The ordinance banned new storage facilities with capacities greater than 2 million gallons and prohibited existing terminals from expanding. (PBJ)

Sears announced the launch of Kenmore products on Amazon, as well as the integration of the full line of Kenmore Smart appliances with Alexa. (CNBC)

Oregon’s largest employer, Intel, has eliminated most of its health wearables division. (CNBC)

Leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations and pointing to an improving economic outlook. (AP)

It took more than 17 years, but the S&P 500 Information Technology sector finally closed at a new all-time high yesterday. The previous record was set on March 27, 2000 and it took 4,354 trading days until that peak was bested yesterday. One thing to remember is: Adjusted for inflation, tech is still 29.8% away from an all-time high. (LPL Research)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Chinese gross domestic product came in at +6.9% year over year, above expectations, while industrial production and retail sales came in at +7.6% and 11.0%, respectively. (LPL Research)

It’s the Summer doldrums.  Trading volume has been very light lately. It was the second-lowest volume day of the year in the U.S. on Monday, as just 5 billion shares traded on the NYSE and Nasdaq. (LPL Research)

Housing starts jumped 8.3% to an annual rate of 1.22 million units, the highest level since February. Single-family homes, which accounts for the largest share of the residential housing market, surged 6.3%.  Starts for multi-family housing increased 13.3%.  Building permits surged 7.4%.  (Reuters).

Cascades Company from Canada has opened a $64 million factory in Scappoose. The facility employs 70 persons in the manufacturing of toilet paper and paper towels. (OregonLive)

Summit Bank with a branch in Bend and HQ in Eugene reported a 40% jump in Q2 profits of $960,000. The Summit loan portfolio grew by almost 24%. Deposits rose by $44.9 million, or 19% year-over-year. (Eug Reg Grd)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Don Tykeson, a pioneer in Oregon’s broadcasting industry, was 90. At one time he was the owner of Liberty Broadcasting in Eugene and until three years ago owned Bend Broad Band in Bend. Tykeson, was also a founding director of C-Span and grew up on a farm near Newberg. (Bend Bulletin)

With the first 30 company results in, S&P 500 companies are tracking to an 8.1% year-over-year increase, marginally above the 8.0% growth rate expected.  Following Friday's big bank reports, financials have produced a 6.6% upside surprise, above last quarter's 5.5% upside surprise. (LPL Research)

Millions of Americans on Social Security are projected to receive a 2.2% increase or about $28 a month for the average recipient in 2018. This year Social Security recipients received an increase of 0.3%, after getting nothing in 2016. The last time they got a bigger increase was in 2012, when the hike was 3.6%. (SSA)

Goldman Sachs posted a profit of $3.95 per share in the second quarter, on revenue of $7.89 billion. Shares are off over 1% in early trading. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Microsoft is closing its Wilsonville Oregon facility where it builds giant touch-screen computers. The company will eliminate 61 jobs in September and another 63 in the following months. (OregonLive)

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in June as the cost of gasoline and mobile phone services declined. In the last 12 months, the CPI is up 1.6%. (Labor Depart.)

Retail sales fell in June by 0.2%. Down for a second straight month. The number was pushed down by declines in spending at service stations, clothing stores, supermarkets, restaurants and bars and hobbies. Retail sales are up 2.8% year-on-year. (Commerce Department)

Industrial production rose in June by 0.4%. Up for a fifth straight month. Mining output which includes oil and gas increased 1.6% led coal mining and in drilling and support activities. Utilities output was unchanged. Capacity utilization, which measures how fully companies are deploying their resources, rose to 76.6% in June. (Reuters)

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 93.1. In the July survey, a reading of current U.S. economic conditions is at 113.2. (University of Michigan)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Producer prices rose 0.1% in June as increases in the cost of services offset declining energy prices. In the last 12 months, the PPI increased 2.0%.  Energy prices fell 0.5% and food prices jumped 0.6% in June. (Reuters)

Chinese trade data, both imports and exports, were greater than forecast. In general, we look to exports as a sign of global economic health, whereas imports tend to tell us more about the country in question. Chinese exports to other emerging markets were steady, with greater improvement in shipments to developed markets. Exports were led by electronics, while steel exports declined. Chinese imports of oil by volume increased again, suggesting some strength in the Chinese industrial economy. (LPL Financial)

The two hallmarks of 2017 have been a steady climb higher for stock prices amid historically low volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) just marked the 45th time this year it has closed between 10.0 and 11.0. This is already a record, topping the 32 times it closed in the 10s in 2006. The VIX has averaged 11.54 so far, this year the lowest annual average ever. The current low record is 12.42 in 1995. (LPL Financial)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Research Indicates Obamacare May Have Cost 250,000 Small-Business Jobs. Casey Mulligan, author of “Side Effects: Economic Consequences of Health-Care Reform,” wrote in the Wall Street Journal that according to research he commissioned from Hanover Research, the costs of Obamacare have cost roughly 250,000 small-business jobs, even though two-thirds of those businesses offered health coverage even before Obamacare was passed. (NFIB)

Springfield based Roseburg Forest Products will build a $200 million engineered wood products plant in South Carolina. The 450,000-square-foot plant will be constructed in 2018 on 200 acres near Chester, S.C. The facility is expected to create 148 full-time jobs. Roseburg has more than 3,000 employees, in plants in Oregon, California, Montana, Louisiana and Mississippi. (Eugene Register)

The S&P 500 has officially gone more than one-year without a 5% correction (using closing prices). This is only the sixth time since 1950 and the first time since 1995 this has occurred. The longest streak ever was a nearly 20-month streak ending in July 1996. (LPL Research)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Consensus expectations are for S&P 500 Q2 operating earnings per share of +7.0%. We saw +14% in Q1. This would be the fourth consecutive quarterly gain. In the past five years, companies have been beating expectations by roughly +3.5%, if that trends holds, EPS gains could come in near 10%. Thus far, just 5% of companies have reported, with 78% beating expectations.  (LPL Research)

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism shows US small business owners’ optimism waned in June due to Congressional inaction on healthcare reform. The index declined 0.9 points to 103.6. The Index remains at a historically high level, but within the Index there are signs of trouble that should be a concern. Fewer business owners expect business conditions to improve, and fewer expect sales to improve. (NFIB)

The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism are now preaching "high debt levels among nonfinancial corporations” as the coming end of the world. Nonfinancial US corporation debt is at a record high of $18.9 trillion. Since 1980, nonfinancial corporate debt has averaged 44.9% of total assets. Right now, these debts total 44.5% of assets, slightly less than average. The record was 50.6 in 1993, right at the beginning of the longest economic expansion in US history. (FTA Advisors)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Happy Slurpee Day!

Lone Rock Timber of Roseburg has filed a lawsuit, naming the State Land Board and Oregon Department of State Lands, seeking $1.3 million for out-of-pocket expenses plus $2 million in "lost business opportunity damages" after the state reneged on an offer to sell them the Elliott State Forest. The company also seeks 9% interest on the expenses it says it's owed. The suit alleges Oregon violated its own policies when elected officials "unilaterally and wrongfully terminated" an agreement to sell the land to the company for $220.8 million. (OregonLive)

Investors have yanked $26.7 billion from Goldman Sachs mutual funds in 2017. This makes Goldman the world's worst-selling fund manager globally. (Morningstar/FT)

Apple's market share of selling and renting movies is declining. Their market share is now between 20% and 35%, down from 50% in 2012. (Wall Street Journal)

PepsiCo reported a better-than-expected quarterly profits. Sales in the North America beverage business rose 2% to $5.24 billion. Total profits rose to $2.11 billion, or $1.46 per share up from $2.01 billion, or $1.38 per share, a year earlier. Total sales rose 2.1% to $15.71 billion. (Reuters)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.





The big government jobs report is out and the economy added 222,000 new jobs in June. Of those 187,000 were in the private sector. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. (Labor Department)

Ford reported a 15% jump in China vehicle sales in June, its biggest year-over-year increase so far in 2017. (CNBC)

Total mortgage application volume increased 1.4% for the week, but was 26% below one year ago. Refinancing dipped 0.4% for the week. Purchase applications rose 3% for the week and are 6% higher compared with a year ago. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.20%. (Mortgage Bankers Association)

NORPAC Foods will eliminate 223 jobs in Salem with the sale of its canning business to Seneca Foods. NORPAC will also close a processing plant in Hermiston and move that work to Brooks and to Quincy, Washington. No word on associated job loses with that closure. (OregonLive)

Join us this weekend for 2 hours of wealth building advice on Financial Focus Radio, when I will be joined by our two Millennial wealth mangers Josh and Sarah.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.

 



The Paychex Small Business Jobs Index fell to 100.10 in June for the fourth-straight month. Wages rose as national hourly earnings for the month were $25.82, up 2.88%, or 72 cents, year over year.

Second quarter earnings season has started and we might be in for a surprise.  About 5% of the S&P 500 have posted earnings so far and profits are up nearly 12% over last year and sales are up 8.5% with nearly 90% percent exceeding estimates. (CNBC)

The yield curve steepened last week for the first time in seven weeks. A steeper yield curve has historically been a positive leading economic indicator. (LPL Research)

Software giant Microsoft is set to layoff thousands around the world to reorganize its sales force. For years the company has focused on selling software for desktops and servers. Now the company wants to put more effort into cloud services. (OregonLive)

Costco reported sales of $12.17 billion in June an increase of 5% from last year. Costco shares have lost 13.21% over the past month, most of it coming after Amazon announced its deal to buy Whole Foods. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The first six months in the books. It was a solid start to the year, with the S&P 500 up 8.2%, the best start to a year since 2013. The year is going down in history as one of the least volatile starts to a year ever. The largest pullback has been only 2.8%--which is the second smallest first-half of the year pullback ever. Also, only four days have closed up or down 1% or more--the last time that happened was in 1972. (LPL Research)

Factories expanded as the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 57.8. The ISM index now stands at its highest level since August 2014.
Fifteen of 18 manufacturing industries in the survey posted growth in June, including the furniture, machinery, fabricated metals, petroleum and coal sectors. (AP)

Construction spending in May was flat. Spending was at an annual rate of $1.23 trillion. (Commerce Department)

A new report by Fidelity Investments  says the average women investors performed better than men by 0.4%, in 2016.

California owned winery Ponte Family Estate has acquired Sherwood based Hawks View Cellars which was founded in 2007. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. (PBJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Gross domestic product increased at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter, the slowest growth rate since the second quarter of last year. Exports gained by 7.0%.  Business spending on equipment increased by 7.8%. (Commerce Department)

The merger agreement between Walgreens and Rite Aid has been called off. Instead, Walgreens will now buy about 2,000 Rite Aid stores for about $5.2 billion. Rite Aid, had nearly 4,600 stores in the U.S. as of May. Stores included in the Walgreens deal are primarily located in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Southeast. (Reuters)

Nike reported quarterly results and the stocks is up 7% on the news. Nike is entering a pilot with Amazon, where they will directly sell a limited product assortment on Amazon. The offerings will include athletic footwear, apparel and accessories. Oregon’s only Fortune 500 company earnings per share was 60 cents on revenue of $8.68 billion. Total sales climbed 5.3%.  Sales for the Converse brand was $554 million, up 10%.  
(CNBC)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus radio for “the truth in wealth building” with Troy and Tyler.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



U.S. stocks traded close to the flat line yesterday, with afternoon gains driven by a rally in the health-care and biotechnology sectors.  Health-care stocks led the gains, up 1.4%, as lawmakers released a “discussion draft” of the health-care bill that is aimed at repealing and replacing Obamacare. The plan includes cutting Medicaid and eliminating penalties for people who don’t buy insurance among other changes.

Oil finished modestly higher yesterday, with a second weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies helping prices recoup some of their recent losses.  But prices were still stuck in a bear market, defined as a decline from a recent peak of at least 20%, on lingering worries about strong domestic production growth.

Shares of Oracle are up over 8% after reporting earnings that topped Wall Street expectations after the bell yesterday.  Better-than-expected results were driven by its cloud business; revenue in that segment soared 58% to $1.4 billion.

American Airlines is in focus after receiving an unsolicited notice from Qatar Airways indicating that it wants to make a “significant” investment in the US airline, amounting to about a 10% stake.  Shares of American Airlines are higher on the news.

And Staples shares are moving higher following a Reuters report that private equity firm Sycamore Partners is in advanced talks to buy the office-supply retailer.  The deal could be worth more than $6 billion.


 



U.S. existing home sales rose in May by 1.1% to its third highest level in a decade. A chronic inventory shortage pushed the median home price to an all-time high. The number of homes on the market was down 8.4% from a year ago. Housing inventory has dropped for 24 straight months on a year-on-year basis. The median house price increased to an all-time high of $252,800, a 5.8% jump from one year ago.  At the current sales rate, it would take 4.2 months to clear inventory. The median number of days homes on the market in May was 27. (National Association of Realtors)

Total mortgage application volume is nearly 14% lower compared to one year ago. Refinance volume is about 30% lower than a year ago. Mortgage applications to purchase a home are 9% higher than one year ago. (Mortgage Bankers Association)

Private equity firm Sycamore Partners looking to acquire Staples.  The deal could top $6 billion. Staples has 1,255 stores in the United States and 304 in Canada. It has the largest market share of office supply stores in the United States at 48% percent, and its share has increased since 2011. (Reuters)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



CNBC reports that most small businesses still rely on word-of-mouth advertising, and 45% said they do not have a website. Only 36% of the small businesses surveyed use a business website to communicate news to customers and potential customers.


The publication Advanced Manufacturing reports April U.S. cutting tool consumption totaled $168 million, with a year-to-date total of $716 million, up 3.5% compared to 2016.


The market continues to expect slower trajectory of interest rate hikes. The Fed's post-FOMC statement leaned hawkish in that they continued to have an upbeat view of the economy, and didn't scale back on rate hike projections. However, despite this hawkish bent, market expectations for rate hikes fell slightly. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of a rate hike by the end of 2017. (LPL Research)


FedEx quarterly earnings were $4.25 per share on sales of $15.7 billion. Both better than expected. The stock has been on a tear, gaining more than 12% in 2017. (Thomson Reuters)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Vancouver-based Papa Murphy's Pizza has hired former Dunkin' Brands executive Weldon Spangler as its new CEO. He brings 30 years of experience with companies like Starbucks and YUM, serving most recently as senior vice president for Canton, Mass.-based Dunkin' Brands Group, where he oversaw the Baskin Robbins ice cream brand in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico. (PBJ)

Uber is losing U.S. market share, dropping from 84% at the start of 2017 to 77% at the end of May. Meanwhile, smaller ride-hailing rival Lyft is gaining ground. (FT)

Hasbro's is making a big bet on board games. The toy company is launching a subscription service that will send a new board game to consumers every three months. It costs $49.99/quarter. Sales of children's games rose 27%     this year; family strategy games, such as Uno, are up 56% in 2017. Hasbro stock is up more than 43% this year. (CNBC)

Charitable giving in the U.S. topped $390 billion in 2016, up nearly 3% according to the Giving USA Foundation.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Bend-based Humm Kombucha has received its first institutional investment of $10 million from San Francisco-based VMG Partners. The company employs approximately 50 workers and will use the funds for expansion. Humm makes fermented tea in a 40,000 sq ft production facility. Their product is available in all 50 States. Costco in the Northwest and the Southeast carry the brand. (PBJ)

 

Homebuilding slowed for the third straight month in May, with housing starts falling by 5.5%. Home construction is still 3.2% higher year-to-date. (AP)

 

Consumers are less optimistic than expected in June. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 94.5 in June (Reuters).

 

A executive order on drug pricing could come out his week.The order may trigger volatility in drug stocks. Healthcare has somewhat quietly-produced the second best sector return year to date (+13.6%). (LPL Research)

Moda Health Plans has sold its Old Mill office building for $25.5 million or $289 per square foot. Moda completed the 88,229 square-foot building in 2008, and 105 employs there. (Bulletin)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Looking deeper into what the Fed told us on Wednesday they reduced their projection for inflation from 1.9% to 1.7% in 2017. They raised gross domestic product projections from 2.1% to 2.2% for 2017 and lowered the projection for the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.3%. (LPL Research)

The scandals continue at Wells Fargo. Officials in its mortgage business were making unauthorized changes to home loans held by customers in bankruptcy, even as the bank was dealing with last year's sales practices scandal. The changes lowered monthly payments but extended the terms. (NY Times)

Import prices dropped 0.3% in May, the steepest decline in 15 months. The decline was driven by falling fuel prices. The price index for imports climbed 2.1% over for the last 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.7% in May, Export prices are up 1.4% over the last year.  (Labor Department)

Oregon-based Nike is trimming 2% of its global workforce.
Nike plans to focus on serving consumers in 12 cities, across 10 countries, with these locals representing over 80% of Nike's projected growth through 2020. (CNBC)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio Show when Tyler and I will tackle your calls and email questions.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



In the first quarter of 2017, 400 U.S. CEOs surveyed by KPMG said they are “highly confident” in America’s growth engine over the next three years and see the U.S. as a top growth market.  They credit this to harnessing the power of disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning, as well as fending off competition.

Neiman Marcus has been exploring a potential sale. This week it reported its fourth straight quarterly loss in the face of intense competition from online retailers. Same-store sales fell 5% for the quarter. Neiman Marcus posted a loss of $24.9 million in the quarter, compared to a profit of $3.8 million last year. (FBN)

Retail sales had their biggest drop in more than a year in May, down 0.3%.  Over the last year retail sales rose 3.8%.  Some of the drop in monthly retail sales reflected lower gasoline prices. (Reuters)

The cost of goods and services for American consumers fell in May for the second time in three months as inflation continues to slow. The consumer price index, fell 0.1% last month. Inflation over the past 12 months slowed to 1.9% in May from a five-year high of 2.7% just four months ago. (MarketWatch)  

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Inflation at the wholesale level was unchanged in May. Energy prices fell 3% and food costs declined 0.2%. Prices did rise for services such as car rentals and retailing clothing, jewelry, footwear and accessories.
Core inflation, which excludes food, energy and trade services has climbed 2.1% over the last year. (AP)

Sears is cutting 400 full-time jobs at its corporate offices.
The company is restructuring in an efforts to reduce costs by $1.25 billion annualized. Last week, Sears said it would close an additional 66 stores, adding to the list of 180 closures that was announced earlier this year. Sears stock has shed more than 41%over the past 12 months and is down about 25% year-to-date. (CNBC)

The Chinese fixed income market are under pressure. With slightly slower growth in China, the People's Bank of China eased its tightening program. (LPL Research)

It is the coming wave in food service. Digital ordering is boosting sales at the soup and sandwich chain Panera Bread. It's poised to pass $1 billion in annualized digital sales this year. It expects to double that by 2019. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The Vancouver, WA based Papa Murphy’s plans to close up to 16 of its stores by year end. Jean Birch, board chair and interim chief executive replaced Ken Calwell, who took the company public in 2014. Calwell resigned in January. Founded in 1981 Papa Murphy’s, has more than 1,500 franchised and corporate-owned stores in 39 states, Canada and the United Arab Emirates. (OregonLive)

The Nordstrom family is thinking of taking back complete ownership of the company. The board has formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate the possible change. (The Washington Post)

Buy your next car online? Amazon has started hiring people to sell cars online in Europe. A German trade magazine reports the company plans to run the business out of Luxembourg, and it’s looking at Britain as a possible test market. (CNBC)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May matched its strong performance in April of 104.5. The Index has been at a historically high level for six straight months. Five of the Index components posted a gain, four declined, and one remained unchanged. Hiring activity is near the highest levels in the 43-year history of the Index.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



A little cost cutting going on. Ford, the only domestic automaker not bailed out with your tax dollars, is offering buyout packages to about 15,000 workers in North America and Asia as they cut costs. (CNBC)

Emerging Market strength continues and this is why every well diversified and balanced portfolio should have some. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is now up 19.1% year to date. (LPL Research)

The week ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday, June 14th, Flag Day, and will include Chair Janet Yellen's press conference. The Bank of Japan also meets on Thursday. Noteworthy U.S. data due out includes consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts. (LPL Research)

General Electric Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt is stepping down. GE shares climbed on the news. The stock is off about 12% year-to-date. John Flannery, current president and CEO of GE Healthcare, has been named CEO of the company, effective August 1, 2017, and chairman and CEO effective January 1, 2018. Flannery, 55, began his career at GE Capital in 1987. (Bloomberg)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.

 



Home-price growth in the Portland area is slowing but still climbed by 1% in March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Prices are up 9.2% from a year ago. Nationally, prices rose 5.8% in March. Homebuyers face a slim supply of homes for sale. The median sale price in the Portland was $370,000 in March, it rose to $385,000 in April.


Pendleton Woolen Mills President Mort Bishop III will retire effective June 30th. He has served in the role since 1999 and worked for the family-owned company for 40 years. He will continue to serve on the board. (PBJ)

Amazon plans to hire 1,000 workers for its distribution center in Troutdale. Amazon plans to invest $178.4 million in a robotics fulfillment center. (PBJ)

The CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey index posted 60 in the second quarter, on a scale of 0–100. Male small-business owners were found to be more optimistic than females, with a confidence level of 62, versus female small-business owners, with a confidence level of 56. Owners with less than four employees have a confidence level of 58. Those with 50 or more employees scored 67.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



It’s Friday, that means it’s time for non-farm payrolls: US job growth missed expectations in May, while April’s figure was revised significantly lower.  Employers added 138,000 jobs in May, a report from the labor department shows. That compares with Wall Street expectations of 182,000. The April gain was revised lower to 174,000 from 211,000 previously.  Wage growth was also a tad weaker than forecast: Average hourly earnings were up 2.5 per cent year-over-year. (FT)

 

Crude prices have fallen almost 3% amid fears that the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris accord will trigger more American drilling. Is it already happening? The U.S. oil industry exported a record 1.3M barrels of crude per day onto the world market last week - just a half million barrels less than the cuts OPEC and Russia agreed to make to daily production. (SA)

 

Illinois is on the verge of becoming the first state with a junk-bond rating following downgrades from Moody's Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings. Partisan gridlock is to blame. The state hasn't had a budget in place for the past two years because of a standoff between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and the Democrat-run legislature. (SA)

 

S&P 500 futures are up 1 and NASDAQ futures are up 11. The MSCI international index is up 3/5%.

Oil is down $1 at $47.49 a barrel.

Gold is up $1 at $1271 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, I'm Josh Fenili.



Consumer spending recorded its biggest increase, 0.4% in four months in April. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Consumer spending grew at its slowest pace in more than seven years in the first quarter. That helped to restrict gross domestic product growth to a 1.2% annual rate in the first quarter. (Commerce Department)

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index moved up 0.2% in April. In the last 12 months, the PCE price index increased 1.7%. (Commerce Department)

Personal income rose 0.4% last month. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation advanced 0.2%. Savings were little changed at $759 billion in April. (Commerce Department)

The Consumer Confidence Index fell again in May to 117.9, but U.S. consumers remain optimistic on the whole. The Consumer Confidence Index hit 125.6 in March, its highest level since December 2000. Individuals saying business conditions are "good" edged down from 30.8% to 29.4% in May, but those saying business conditions are "bad" was unchanged at 13.7%.  Persons claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased from 19.4% to 18.2%. (Conference Board)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Durable goods orders fell 0.7% in April. The downturn was the first since durable goods orders fell 4.6% in November 2016. Orders for transportation equipment fell 1.2% pulled down by a 9.2% drop in orders for civilian aircraft. (Commerce Department)

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.2% annual rate in Q1. That was the weakest performance since the first quarter of 2016 and followed a 2.1 percent rate of expansion in the fourth quarter. There are signs GDP growth regained speed early in the second quarter. (Commerce Department)

The S&P 500 Index traded for the 100th day of 2017 last Thursday. For the year it is up 7.9% and has made 19 new all-time highs. That is the most all-time highs as of day 100 since 1999. What does a good start to the year mean? Since 1950, there were 23 other years the S&P 500 Index was up 7.5% or more as of day 100 and the rest of the year it was higher 20 of those times with an average return of 9.0% the rest of the year. The full year return those 23 years was 23.4%. (LPL Research)

Shareholders approved the merger of Bend-based Bank of the Cascades with First Interstate Bank of Billings, Montana. The merger will be completed today. (Bulletin)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart



Horizon Air pilots approved an amended contract that raises the carrier's pay scale. Seventy-nine percent of voting Horizon pilots approved ratification with an 88% participating. (OregonLive)

Sears reported a first-quarter loss and same-store sales continued to decline at a double-digit pace. The company sold its Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker in March for $525 million. Sears ended the first quarter with $264 million in cash. Sears stock has fallen more than 19% year-to-date and is down about 40% over the past 12 months. (Reuters)

Best Buy had strong sales of mobile devices and gaming products during the first quarter. Best Buy sales climbed to $8.53 billion. Online sales jumped 22.5% domestically. The company had profits of $188 million, or 60 cents per share. (AP)

Costco shares are on fire posting a quarterly profit of $700 million, or $1.59 per share. Total sales rose 7.8% to $28.86 billion. Sales and how much members pay in annual fees both rose. Total same store sales rose 5%. U.S. same stores sales rose 6%. Of Costco's 732 stores, 510 are in the U.S. Costco shares are up 9% since the beginning of the year. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The Port of Portland has selected Curtis Robinhold as the Port's new executive director. Robinhold, is currently deputy to current executive director Bill Wyatt and is his hand-picked successor. He has been the Port's deputy director since 2013. (PBJ)

Corona beer maker Constellation Brands is looking to buy Jack Daniels producer Brown-Forman. Brown-Forman has indicated it's not interested in selling. (CNBC)

Total mortgage application volume increased 4.4% last week. Refinance volume was higher by 11% for the week, but remains 30% below the same week one year ago. Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.17%.  (Mortgage Bankers Association)

Home resales fell 2.3% in April more than expected.  Mostly due to a shortage of houses on the market that is keeping prices elevated and sidelining prospective buyers. (National Association of Realtors)

Moody's downgraded Chinese sovereign debt citing concerns about excessive leverage. The downgrade isn't really "news," it's more a confirmation of what we already know.  (LPL Research)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Advanced Manufacturing reports that “manufacturing economic growth should continue through the rest of 2017.” The semi-annual forecast predicted “an average revenue increase for the year of 4.4%, compared with 2016.” “The survey showed manufacturers this year expect a 5.2% increase in capital expenditures, a 1.3% rise in employment and a 4.4% rise in revenues.”

New single-family home sales tumbled 11.4% in April from a 9-1/2-year high in March. However new home sales increased 0.5% on a year-on-year basis. April's sales drop came after three straight months of increases. (Commerce Department)

Flir Systems the Wilsonville thermal imaging company has a new CEO.  He is Jim Cannon, an Army veteran who has been at toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker for the past 16 years. Flir is one of Oregon's largest companies, reporting sales of $1.7 billion last year and profits of $167 million. It employs nearly 3,500 worldwide. (Oregon Live)

Home improvement supplier Lowe's profit fell 32% to $602 million, or 70 cents per share last quarter. Sales rose 10.7% to $16.86 billion. Same-store sales rose only 2%. (AP)  

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



It is the unofficial last week of an excellent earnings season. With just 28 S&P 500 companies left to report results, S&P 500 earnings growth for the first quarter is tracking to a very strong +15.2% year-over-year increase, +11.1% excluding energy. Technology jumped ahead of financials and materials last week into second place in the earnings growth rankings (energy is first). (LPL Research)

Amazon is offering live television channels on its platform in Europe as it steps up its push into broadcasting and challenges traditional networks. Today, Amazon holds its annual shareholder meeting in Seattle. (Financial Times)

SolarWorld Americas has filed a layoff notice for its Hillsboro solar panel factory. The German parent company is now insolvent. All the current 800 workers could lose their jobs. The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act requires companies with 100 or more employees to notify affected workers 60 days prior to closures and layoffs. (PBJ)

AutoZone reported quarterly profits rose to $331.7 million, or $11.44 a share from a year ago. Domestic same-store sales declined 0.8%. The stock has tumbled 16.5% year to date. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



This week’s economic calendar includes data on purchasing manager surveys, housing, trade, durable goods, and revised first quarter gross domestic product.  The Fed will remain in focus with minutes from the May 3rd meeting due out Wednesday. We believe the market is correctly pricing in a June 14 rate hike. Overseas include first quarter German and U.K. GDP, German business confidence, and Eurozone purchasing manager surveys. (LPL Research)

Ford will replace CEO Mark Fields. The automaker's new CEO will be Jim Hackett, former CEO of Steelcase and currently chairman of the autonomous vehicles unit at Ford. This comes as profits margins at Ford trail those of other car makers and as the stock price has fallen almost 40% since Field took over three years ago. (CNBC)

U.S.-based chemical company Huntsman and Switzerland's Clariant are combining in a more than $14 billion merger of specialty chemical companies. The all-stock transaction will create a company that will be 52% owned by Clariant shareholders. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Finally, some volatility. After 15 consecutive days without a S&P 500 closing up or down 0.5% (the longest streak since 1969), volatility came back in a big way with an 1.8% drop on Wednesday. This was only the second 1% drop this year and it was the worst one-day drop since September. (LPL Research)
In the radio world - Pandora is in active talks with SiriusXM about being bought by the satellite radio company. (New York Post)

About-face! IBM a pioneer of remote work, is giving thousands of its work-from-home employees in the U.S. a choice this week: Abandon your off-site workspaces and relocate to a regional office, or leave the company. (WSJ)

Big green, big boy toy maker, Deere saw earnings per share to rise 7.7% to $1.68, with revenue growing 3% to $7.32 billion. Agriculture and turf sales grew 1%, construction and forestry sales climbed 7%. Deere profits and revenues have been in a slump since 2014, which the company has attributed to a weak global agricultural economy. Deere says it is starting to see signs of a rebound in some markets hard hit by low crop prices. (Reuters)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will talk about –“Has the Trump rally ended?”

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Oh how the world is changing. McDonald's is expanding delivery via UberEats to about 1000 restaurants nationwide, a move aimed at winning back younger consumers willing to pay more for food brought to their doors. McDelivery, is now available at about 300 restaurants in Los Angeles, 144 in Phoenix and 59 in Columbus, Ohio and 300 in Chicago. Nearly 75 percent of the U.S. population lives within three 3 miles of a McDonald's.  (Chicago Tribune)

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and sales. Red Robin had a profit of $11.6 million, or 89 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $14.2 million, or $1.03 a share, a year ago. Sales were $418.6 million, up 4% from $402.1 million a year ago. Same store sales fell 1.2%. (Market Watch)

Jack In The Box reported quarterly profits of $33.1 million or $1.06 per share. The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The burger chain had sales of $369.4 million.  Jack In The Box shares have dropped nearly 9% since the beginning of the year.

Wal-Mart grew its e-commerce sales a whopping 63% last quarter. The majority of these sales were organic through Walmart.com. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Want a simple example of what we mean by the current lack of market volatility?  Last year at this point the S&P 500 index had closed down 1% or more 17 times.  Only once so far, this year. (S&P)

Construction of new homes fell by 2.6% in April to an annual rate of 1.17 million units.  That is a second straight month of declines and pushes activity to the lowest level in five months. The weakness was led by a big drop in construction of apartments. (Commerce Department)

Home Depot reported earnings per share of $1.67 on revenue of $23.89 billion. Same-store sales grew by 5.5%.  Home Depot stock has climbed more than 18% over the past 12 months. (CNBC)

Industrial production in April grew 1%, the fastest pace in more than three years as manufacturers and mines/oil recovered from a March downturn. Factory production rose 1%. Mine/oil production increased 1.2%. Utility output rose 0.7%. Factory production has risen three of four months this year. Manufacturing has recovered from a rough patch in late 2015 and early 2016 caused by cutbacks in the energy industry and a strong dollar, which makes U.S. goods costlier in foreign markets. (Federal Reserve)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Oregon’s largest employer, Intel, has named Gregory Bryant to lead its PC division. He currently leads the company's connected home and commercial business. (PBJ)

Chinese industrial production growth came in at 6.5% weaker than expected.  On an absolute basis, the economy is still on track to meet its growth goals, though it looks like growth may have peaked for the year. The government continues to crack down on excess leverage in the financial system; these numbers are unlikely to move them off that path. (LPL Research)

The S&P 500 snapped its 3-week win streak last week, with a modest 0.3% drop. Continuing was the incredibly small daily ranges and lack of overall volatility. On the week, the S&P 500 traded in less than a one-percent range (from high to low) for the second consecutive week (only the third time since 1995). Additionally, the intraday range on Friday was 0.22% - the smallest daily range on a full day of trading in nearly three years. (LPL Research)

Ford, the only domestic automaker not too be bailed out with your tax dollars, is cutting 10% of its global workforce or 20,000 jobs. Most of the jobs will be salaried workers who do not have union protection. (CNN)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.

 



Through Friday we have seen the following move in world stock markets for 2017 (NASDAQ).

Mexico - +19%
Emerging Markets - +18%
France - +17%
Europe - +10%
Nasdaq 100 - +17%
S&P 500 - +7%
Russell 2000 - +2%

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in April after dropping in March. Energy prices rose 1.1%. Over the past 12 months, inflation is up 2.2%. (Labor Department)

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index finished April with a reading of 97, up from 89 for the same month a year ago. (CNBC)

Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, missing consensus expectations of 0.6% growth. The pattern appears to be increasing spending on experiences, such as dining and entertainment, rather than goods. More spending is moving to online. (LPL Research)

Apple has issued $7 billion in corporate bonds, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Apple has been using debt to pay shareholders while holding most of its $256 billion in cash overseas to avoid repatriation taxes. Since Apple launched its shareholder-return program in 2012, its long-term debt has risen from zero to nearly $85 billion.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Inflation at the wholesale level jumped in April by 0.5% the largest increase in three months, fueled by rising food and energy prices. Energy prices rose 0.8% in April, while food costs were up 0.9%. Wholesale inflation is up 2.5% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month gain in five years. (Labor Department)

Nordstrom saw profits jump 37% to $63 million, or 37 cents per share at its department stores in the first quarter. But same store sales declined 0.8% in the quarter. Sales results at Nordstrom Rack were up 2.3%.  Nordstrom total revenue grew 3% to $3.35 billion. (AP)

It has not been pretty to watch, the slow death of a once great icon. J.C. Penney's net loss widened to $180 million, or 58 cents per share, in the first quarter, from $68 million, or 22 cents per share a year ago. This was due to weaker sales at brick-and-mortar locations.  Earlier this year Penney's announced it would close 138 stores representing 13% of all their stores but generated less than 5% of annual sales. Shares of Penney's have fallen over 33% over the past year. (AP)

Join us this weekend for the Financial Focus Radio Show when we will talk about the dangers in the stock and bond markets.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.





 



Import prices increased in April by 0.5%.  Over the last 12 months import prices rose 4.1%. Prices for imported petroleum climbed 1.6%.  Export prices increased 0.2% in April. Export prices rose 3.0% year-on-year. Prices for agricultural exports advanced 0.3% as a 37.9% jump in vegetable prices offset falling prices for soybeans, corn and wheat. (Labor Department)

Chinese producer prices rose 6.4% year over year.  Consumer prices remained contained, rising 1.2% year over year. Inflation in China is moderating as less producer inflation is translating into consumer price increases. (LPL Research)

Kohl’s had a first quarter profit of 39 cents per share beating expectations. This came on sales of $3.84 billion.
Kohl's shares have declined 18% since the beginning of the year. (AP)

Whole Foods reported quarterly earnings of $99 million. That produced a profit of 31 cents per share. The results met Wall Street expectations. The grocer had sales of $3.74 billion in the period. Whole Foods shares are up 18% in 2017. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



An Oregon business legend has passed. Benjamin Whiteley was 87. He died on May 4th.  He was the former CEO of The Standard insurance company and chairman of Greenbrier Companies.  He also served on the boards of Northwest Natural Gas and Willamette Industries. (PBJ)

The Volatility Index, also known as the VIX (VIX) closed at 9.77 Monday for the lowest close on the "fear gauge" since December 1993. Going back to 1990, this is only the 10th close beneath 10 and the first since January 2007. (LPL Research)

Total mortgage application volume increased 2.4% last week. Volume is still nearly 14% below a year-ago. Mortgage applications to purchase a home gained 2% for the week and are 6% higher than a year ago. Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan rose 3% for the week but are 32% below last year. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgage remained unchanged at 4.23%. (Mortgage Bankers Association)

Proctor & Gamble's Gillette revamped its subscription-based shaving razor service to include a text-to-order feature, the latest move in its battle with Unilever's Dollar Shave Club. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism posted another historically high reading in April, but expectations for future business conditions plunged by eight points, a sign that business owners were shaken by Congress’ failure at the end of March to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Index dipped 0.2 points April, settling at 104.5. April was the sixth straight month for historically high optimism, a hot streak not seen since 1983.

Strong earnings season got even better last week. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter rose more than 1% over the past week and are now tracking to a 14.7% year-over-year increase, compared with the 10.2% increase in estimates. Both the earnings growth and beat rates (75%) are the best in more than five years. Excluding the rebounding energy sector, earnings are still on pace to grow a solid 10.5% year over year. About 40 S&P 500 companies will report results this week as earnings season winds down. (LPL Research)

Up three weeks in a row. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at its first all-time high since March 1 and in the process rose for the third consecutive week. It was also the first green Friday for the S&P 500 in nearly two months. This was the second three-week win streak of the year, with the earlier streak making it all the way to six weeks in a row. There hasn't been a year with two separate six-week win streaks since 2013. (LPL Research)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



We have had a little time to dig into Fridays big jobs report where the U.S. economy created 211,000 jobs in April, rebounding sharply from a downwardly revised 79,000 in March. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% versus expectations of an increase to 4.6%, helped by a decline in the participation rate. Wage growth climbed 0.3%, in line with expectations, and stands at 2.5% year over year, signaling that wage pressures remain contained despite an improving labor market. The overall jobs picture likely keeps the Fed on track for two more rate hikes in 2017. (LPL Research)

 

The past eight days are about as slow as it gets. The S&P 500 has incredibly closed up or down less than 20 basis points seven of the past eight days, tying the all-time record from 1972. Additionally, it has closed less than 0.5% away from new all-time highs each of those days, but hasn't been able to make new highs. In fact, the S&P 500 hasn't made a new high since March 1st. (LPL Research)

 

Coach is buying the clothing and accessories maker Kate Spade for $18.50 per share or $2.4 billion in cash. Coach said it would save $50 million in operational costs within three years. (CNBC)

 

The S&P 500 is flat and the NASDAQ is up 3.  The MSCI international index is flat.

Oil is down 10 cents at $46.11 a barrel.

Gold is up $6 at $1233 a Troy ounce.



The Labor Department says the US economy added 211,000 new jobs in April. Of those 191,000 were in the private sector and 20,000 in government. The unemployment fell to 4.4%, lowest since May of 2007.

Worker productivity fell 0.6% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2016, leading to a jump in labor-related costs. This was the weakest in a year.  Year-over-year productivity increased at a 1.1% rate. Productivity has increased at a meager average annual rate of 0.6% over the last five years, well below its long-term rate of 2.1% from 1947 to 2016. Per unit labor costs increased at a 3.0% rate in the first quarter. (Labor Department)

The US trade balance was near flat at $-43.7 billion in March. Both imports and exports fell, signaling a decline in trade activity. Services trade activity was strong, exhibiting the continued value of good old American know-how as a national resource. (LPL Research)

Fast food purveyor YUM Brands released same-store Q1 sales at their restaurants yesterday according to a news release:
Pizza Hut: down 3%
KFC: up 2%
Taco Bell: up 8%

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will talk about the danger of bonds.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index posted 57.5 for the month of April, growing for the 88th consecutive month. A reading above 50 on this index indicates expansion in the service sector. The ISM's Prices Index increased 4.1% in April, as prices in the service sector grew for the 13th consecutive month and at a faster rate. (Bloomberg)

First quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Eurozone grew 0.5% as expected. Europe has struggled to grow its economy over the past few years, but this data, suggests full year growth could top economists’ expectations for 1.7% this year. (LPL Research)

Church & Dwight, makers of  Arm & Hammer Baking Soda and Oxi Clean announced first quarter EPS of $0.51 per share, an 18.6% increase. Sales grew 2.3%. (Business Wire

Companies announced 36,602 layoffs in April, a 15% decrease from March. Aprils job cuts were 43% lower than the 64,141 recorded in April 2016. Employers have announced a total of 162,803 planned job cuts through the first four months of 2017, down 35% from a year ago. Retail had the most job losses in April with 11,669 job cuts. (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.

 



Another busy week of earnings on tap. A very strong earnings season continues this week with 127 S&P 500 companies reporting. With about two-thirds of companies having reported, S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter of 2017 are now tracking for a 13.6% year-over-year increase, well above the 10.2% increase expected. The 77% earnings beat rate thus far, should it hold, would be the best since 2010. (LPL Research)

U.S. factory activity slowed in April . The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index of national factory activity dropped to a 54.8 last month, the weakest reading since December. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.  Manufacturing accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy. (Reuters)

Mondelez International, the maker of Oreo cookies, Cadbury chocolate and Trident gum, reported first-quarter profits of $630 million, or 41 cents per share. The company had sales of $6.41 billion in the period.
Mondelez shares are down more than 1% since the beginning of the year. (AP)

The ADP jobs report says the economy added 177,000 private sector positions in April.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The old Wall Street cliché goes "sell in May and go away".  Should you worry? In fact, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have not fallen in May since 2012. (CNBC)

Consumer spending was unchanged in March showing weak domestic demand in the first quarter. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.3%.  Spending has been constrained by the mild winter, which undercut demand for heating and utilities production. Delays in income tax refunds also weighed on consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. (Commerce Department)

Personal income gained 0.2%. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation increased 0.5%, the biggest gain since December 2015. Savings increased to $849 billion from $819 billion in February. (Reuters)

Wages and benefits accelerate. The Labor Department's Employment Cost Index, which includes both wages and benefits, rose 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017, ahead of expectations and the best quarterly rate of growth since before the Great Recession. Stronger wage growth points to a tightening labor market, although spare capacity and a low participation rate will likely keep any possibility for outsized wage acceleration in check. (LPL Research)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 


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