Happy Halloween. It is the last trading day of what is been a very volatile October. October 2018 is on pace to be the biggest down month in a decade. (CNBC)
While it has been a rough October for equities, there is a piece of good news for investors: During midterm years, the S&P 500 has gained from the October lows until the end of the year every single year since World War II. That is 18 out of 18 years, with an average gain of 10.6%. (LPL)
Earnings results better than headlines suggest. With nearly half of the S&P 500 constituents having reported third quarter results, the numbers have been excellent overall. According to Thomson Reuters, 78% of companies have exceeded consensus earnings estimates, putting the index on track for a 25.2% year-over-year increase in earnings. Resilient earnings estimates amid the stock market decline have left the S&P 500 valued at roughly 15 times next 12 months estimates, similar to the attractive levels reached during the late 2015-early 2016 market correction. (LPL)
Rate hike in December still likely, but odds falling. Fed fund futures currently show investors expect the Fed to increase short-term interest rates when it meets in December. No hike expected at November meeting. (LPL)
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.