An encouraging but tenuous economic forecast for the State of Oregon during the first quarter of 2011. Oregon has had some good job gains, but such industries as banking and real estate remain weak. Economist Bill Watkins is with the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at Cal Lutheran University: “Our forecast right now is for more slow growth, slow job growth. Worried about the sustainability. We’re in a very risky time right now; particularly oil prices could push us back into a recession pretty easily.”  Watkins predicts if oil prices reach $150 a barrel, we'll slip back into a recession.