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Target is adding space to its toy business for the holiday season, as it tries to win more toy sales after Toys R Us went out of business earlier this year. (CNBC)

 

US industrial production grew by 0.3% in September. An increase in mining sector activity-which includes oil and natural gas extraction-which has been trending up with oil prices since 2015, helped U.S. industry output increase for a fourth straight month in September. Manufacturing output, the largest component of the index, continued to expand last month also rose for a fourth straight month. (LPL)

 

Housing starts for September that came in modestly below analyst forecasts and prior month figures. Hurricane Florence is credited with disrupting activity in the Southeast, which accounts for about half of starts and fell 13.7% from the prior month; expect Hurricane Michael to impact next month's report. On the positive side, permits for single-family homes were up 2.9% month over month, the biggest gain in a year, suggesting builders have a steady pipeline that could contribute to growth in the fourth quarter as consumer demand, helped by a solid job market and lower taxes, as well as post-storm rebuilding, overshadows headwinds including rising mortgage rates and property prices. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



Job openings hit a record 7.14 million in August, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This indicates companies could face inflationary pressures ahead with a tight labor market. The total number of hires also reached a new record of 5.78 million. Openings dwarfed the total level of workers looking for jobs, which stood at 6.23 million for that month and fell to 5.96 million in September.

 

The National Association of Home Builders index rose one point in October to 68. Anything above 50 is considered positive. The index was unchanged from October 2017. This comes as lumber prices are falling driving down the cost of building a home.

 

Walmart has purchased online lingerie retailer Bare Necessities for an undisclosed amount. (CNBC)

 

A record net 37 percent of biz owners reported raising overall compensation in hopes of hiring and retaining employees in the tight labor market. This surpasses the previous record of a new 35 percent in May 2018. Competition for workers is pushing up compensation as there are more job openings than job seekers. (NFIB)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



The U.S. Postal Service has proposed a 9 to 12 percent increase in fees for the shipping service used by Amazon (CNBC). 

 

Weakness in restaurant receipts weighed on retail sales last month, which fell 0.1% from August, well below consensus estimates for a 0.6% increase. However, the 1.8% drop in consumer spending at restaurants may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence, and broad strength across most other categories suggests consumption remains strong. Also, retail control-group sales, which are used to calculate gross domestic product, and exclude food services, auto dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations, topped estimates with a 0.5% rise month over month. (LPL)

 

Earnings season kicked off Friday. S&P 500 Index companies are expected to report their ninth consecutive increase in profits and third consecutive quarter with an increase of over 20%. We expect strong earnings gains to be driven mostly by solid economic growth, particularly manufacturing, and tax cuts. In addition, higher oil prices should give energy sector profits a boost and the interest rate environment has gotten better for financial companies. This week, 54 S&P 500 companies will report quarterly results.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



For retail investors who are rattled by the upcoming midterm elections. Since 1946, a year after every single midterm election the S&P 500 has been higher. That is 18 for 18. (LPL)

 

Banks kicked off their third-quarter earnings season Friday with mostly well-received results. Loan demand outside of housing is healthy, while consumer credit trends (charge-offs and provisions for loan losses) were solid. (LPL)

 

The S&P 500 lost 5.3% over the two day selloff last week, extending its losing streak to six days. August 2015, Brexit, and early February 2018 had worse two-day stretches. Along the way, the S&P 500 closed beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time in six months. 

 

Amazon will hire 2,000 people in Portland area this fall as it opens new warehouses and delivery centers. 
(Oregonian)

 

Just 75 days till Christmas and USA Today says the “holiday hiring season is in full swing,” noting retailers expect “to hire between 585,000 and 650,000 temporary workers this holiday season, up from last year’s 582,500.” Amazon expects to hire more than 100,000 seasonal employees across the country during the holiday.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



October is known for spectacular crashes (1929, 1987, and 2008), but in reality it's about average in terms of returns. What it really should be known for is volatility. Incredibly, no month has seen more 1% changes (up or down) than the month of October for the S&P 500 going back to 1950. The economy is in excellent shape. By historical standards, interest rates are still fairly low. Pullbacks are normal. Stocks have three to four pullbacks each year (5-10% drops) and at least one 10-20% correction. (LPL)

 

The Consumer Price Index came in weaker than expected. The data show prices rose 2.3% in September vs. the year-ago period, below the 2.7% figure in the prior month. (LPL)

 

International Paper is increasing its dividend by 5.3%. That brings it to $0.50 per share. (CNBC)

The end may be near. Sears has contacted banks in an attempt to arrange financing to allow it to file for bankruptcy after 125 years in business. (CNBC).

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



After reaching new record highs just a week ago, markets are selling off hard. Let’s put this in perspective yesterday markets were down about 3% and are down 4% from their all-time highs. While it is been a swift move downward it should not be unexpected. As I reported last month the S&P 500 went over 3 trading months without a 1% move either up or down. That is now in the past.

 

Volatility is a normal and expected part of the market. We do not view this market turn down as the beginning of the end, but rather a normal anticipated and healthy correction in the market. You just have to look back to last January to see how markets react in a rising interest rate environment. 

 

If you have a well diversified portfolio of high quality stocks and bonds this recent market action should give you no concern.

 

September saw the Producer Price Index-a measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services-increase by 0.2% month over month. Despite the recent softness, prices at the producer level have been ticking higher since early-2016, though most of the increases have been absorbed by businesses instead of being passed along to consumers thus far. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



After returning from the Columbus Day holiday, bond traders bid up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note above 3.25%, a level not seen since 2011. Though higher interest rates tend to weigh on stocks, on the positive side, higher yields benefit savers, who have had significant difficulty finding places to park cash. Also, stocks haven't historically been negatively impacted by higher rates until the 10-year reaches ~5%. (LPL)

 

Though it ticked lower from August's record high, at 107.9, the NFIB Small Business Index came in at its third-highest level in the survey's 45-year history and is the longest streak of small business optimism in history, helped by the recent tax cuts and fiscal policy changes. Among the highlights, a record percentage of small business owners reported raising compensation, and data showed a pickup in investment spending and expectations for higher sales volumes. (LPL)

 

The Kaiser Family Foundation released report found “insurers in the individual health insurance market performed better financially in the first six months of 2018 than they have in all of the years of the Affordable Care Act.”

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



The Nobel economics prize was awarded to Americans William Nordhaus and Paul Romer for transforming our understanding of long-term growth factors, including climate and technology changes. (NY Times)

 

Debra Perelman has been appointed the first female Chief Executive Officer of Revlon. Perelman, 44, has worked at Revlon for 20 years. Her father owns about 87% of Revlon. (CNN)

 

Chinese stocks plunged and the yuan fell nearly 1% versus the dollar after markets reopened following a week off. The slide came despite the central bank cutting the required reserve ratio for the fourth time this year to boost growth; lenders may reduce the amount of cash they hold by 1% beginning October 15th. It's still not clear if the extra liquidity can put a floor under the market, which is down more than 15.0% year to date. (LPL)

 

The XHB, the popular homebuilders-tracking ETF, just posted its longest losing streak ever, falling for 13 consecutive sessions amid a breakout in U.S. Treasury yields that injected new risk into the rate-sensitive group. The XHB has tumbled 9 percent in just one month, entering into a bear market. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



It is a question of pay for performance or pay by the hour. Amazon cut stock options incentive-based bonuses for employees when it raised its minimum wage to $15 per hour, but workers will be better compensated under the new policy. 350,000 employees, including 100,000 seasonal workers, will have their hourly pay rate raised to $15 per hour. (FBN)

 

Barnes & Noble is looking to sell their business after many people have approached them with interest. (CNBC)

 

Yamhill County winery, Domaine Serene Vineyards and Winery has filed a lawsuit against Kansas City whiskey maker J. Rieger & Co. to stop using the brand name "Monogram".  The winery claims it secured its rights to be the sole user of Monogram in its industry after it registered the name with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office in 2006. (Oregonian)

 

Costco reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.36 on $44.41 billion in revenue, slightly higher than expected.  (Yahoo)

 

A rare 60-year-old Macallan whisky fetched $1.1 million at an auction last week. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



The Department of Labor says the US economy added 137,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, lowest level since December 1969.

 

Dutch Bros Coffee will add 500 more coffee stands over the next five years, with funds gained after selling a minority stake two private equity firm. Founded in Grants Pass in 1992, Dutch Bros now has 300 locations in seven states. (Oregonian)

 

When I was younger they were the leader of the pack. Now there a penny stock. Sears share price has fell below $1 for the first time in the company's history. Sears has lost $11.7 billion since 2010, its last profitable year, and sales have plunged 60% in that time. It has fewer than 900 stores, down from a combined 3,500 US stores when Sears and Kmart merged in 2005. (Money)

 

The fast food chain Burgerville has discovered they are part of a security data breach. Customer using debit or charge card between September 2017 and 2018 are at risk. The company first learned of the data breach on August 22 from the FBI. (AP)

 

Join us this weekend for Financial focus with you when we will discuss “why is my account trailing in the markets?”

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.     



US Stocks rose slightly yesterday as investors got a slew of good economic data about the labor market and the non-manufacturing sector.
 
The payroll company ADP reported that the private sector in the US soared in September as employers added 230,000 jobs in which is the most in any month since February.  The gains were well above what economists had expected.
 
The institute for supply management survey of non-manufacturing firms climbed to a 21 year high, it's highest level in this current 9 year expansion.  The survey of business executives pointed to the strongest US growth last month in more than 2 decades.  The biggest challenge for businesses right now is finding skilled workers.
 
With all of the good economic data bonds across the yield curve sold off as the 10 year Treasury Note yield reached it's highest level since 2011 and the 30 year reached it's highest yield since 2014.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones
 



US Stocks as measured by the S&P 500 traded slightly lower yesterday on lingering trade war worries.

Shares of Pepsi gained 0.5% in heaving trading, after the beverage and snack giant reported fiscal third-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations.  However, the company cut their full years EPS outlook for the rest of the year.

Shares of Amazon fell 1.7% after the giant online retailer said it was raising its minimum wage to $15 an hour for all U.S. employees, effective Nov. 1.

According to the personal-finance website WalletHub, Bend is the fourth-fastest growing city in the U.S. this year, based on a study that looked at a variety of factors.  Bend ranks 4th in growth for all US cities and is the 2nd fastest growing small city in the US behind Ft Myers FL.

Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones



US Stocks traded higher on the first day of the 4th quarter after the U.S. and Canada reached an 11th-hour deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement.  This brings Canada into a new trilateral agreement that Mexico had agreed to weeks ago.

 

General Electric it has replaced its chief executive, after just over a year in the role, and investors were so ecstatic they shrugged off a profit warning and a plan to take an impairment charge of close to $23 billion.  GE’s stock gained 7% on the news in very active trading.

 

Shares of Tesla Motors soared yesterday as a surprise settlement with the SEC over the weekend allowing the companies outspoken CEO Elon Musk to retain his CEO role.  The stock got another boost from a report that Musk told employees that the company was “very close” to turning a profit.  Tesla shares jumped more than 16% on the news.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones


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US Stocks ended last week lower but had the best performing quarter since the 4th quarter of 2013, with the S&P 500 gaining 7% in the 3rd quarter.
 
Geopolitical events and the start of earnings season will drive trading in the week ahead.  Italy's anti-establishment government significantly widened its budget deficit for the next year, a move the will certainly anger the European Union.
 
American Homeowners now have a record $6 Trillion in equity in their homes, a figure boosted by surging home prices and a trend of people staying in their homes longer.  That $6 Trillion number is 21% higher than the pre-financial crisis peak in 2006.
 
California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill yesterday mandating that all publicly traded companies with headquarters in California must have at least one woman on their board of directors by the end of the year.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones  



New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 4.5% in August. Growth last month matched the strongest pace in a year. However, orders excluding transportation reflect a slowdown in manufacturing as escalating trade anxieties increasingly weigh on U.S. firms. Excluding transportation, durable goods rose 0.1% in the month. Capital expenditures, measured by new nondefense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and parts), declined for the first time since March. Shipments of these capital goods, which contribute directly to gross domestic product, grew 0.1%.  Unfilled orders ticked up to a record $1.18 billion amid growing tariff-induced supply chain disruptions. (LPL)

 

Amazon is expanding its grocery delivery service from Whole Foods stores to more cities across the U.S. The service is available in Milwaukee, Omaha, Detroit, Jacksonville, Madison, Orlando, St. Louis, Ann Arbor, Tampa and Tulsa. (CNBC)

 

Is this like rats leaving a sinking ship? J.C. Penney CFO Jeffrey Davis is resigning to pursue a new opportunity, after less than a year and a half on the job. (CNBC)

 

Join us on this great station this weekend for Financial Focus Radio, the truth and wealth building. Check out the website financialfocusradio.com for day and time.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



If you think markets have been relatively calm lately you are right. The S&P 500 Index has now gone 64 consecutive days without a 1% change either up or down, the fourth-longest streak since 1990.  (LPL)

 

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3 percent for the week and were 4 percent higher on the year.  Applications to refinance a home loan increased 3 percent for the week and are 34.5 percent lower than one year ago.

 

Retailers Could Hire Over 700,000 Seasonal Workers This Holiday Season. Retailers are expected to hire more than 700,000 seasonal workers for the December holidays. The most since 2015, according to a Challenger Gray Christmas analysis of federal jobs data. 

 

Business Insider reported that with the holiday season approaching, “retailers are scrambling to figure out how to win over workers.” Target, which “is seeking 120,000 workers this season, up by 20% from the year before,” is offering “all new hires, including part-time seasonal workers...a $12-per-hour minimum wage.” JCPenney is offering paid time off and even offering 401(k) benefits for some, Kohl’s is giving seasonal workers a 35 percent discount on purchases. 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



Consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2000. The Consumer Confidence Index reached 138.4 according to the Conference Board. 

 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose for a sixth straight day yesterday, its longest streak of gains since May, to 3.10%. Investors around the world have pivoted back into risky assets recently, boosting the MSCI All-Country World Index to its second straight weekly gain last week (and fourth in five weeks). The 10-year yield's resilience is especially impressive given it's trading a few basis points away from a 7-year high. (LPL)

 

Home prices continued to rise at a slower pace in July. Prices have been increasing at a slower rate since April. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index reported a 6% annual gain in July, down from 6.2% in the previous month. 

 

Inspire Brands is buying drive-in fast-food chain Sonic for  $2.3 billion in cash including assumption of debt. Inspire already owns more than 4,700 Arby's, Buffalo Wild Wings and Rusty Taco restaurants. Arby's purchased Buffalo Wild Wings in November 2017. Sonic will become a privately-held subsidiary of Inspire Brands and will continue to operate as an independent brand. (CNBC) 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.      



The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) monetary policy meeting is the highlight of this week, culminating in a policy decision and a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. An interest rate hike later this week is almost a foregone conclusion, so investors will likely focus more on the Fed's projections for future policy and economic growth. (LPL)

 

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.4% in August and 6.4% year over year. The LEI, which is a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers' new orders, stock prices, and weekly unemployment claims), shows that the economic expansion is still intact and healthy. The LEI also has turned negative year over year before every economic recession dating back to the 1970s. (LPL)

 

Walmart is warning that new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports may prompt the retailer to raise prices. (Reuters)

McDonald's raised its quarterly dividend to $1.16 per share from $1.01, a rise of 15 percent. The restaurant chain has now increased its dividend for 42 straight years. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



The Dow finally joined its index peers in record territory, rising nearly 1% Thursday to close at a fresh record high after a 237-day drought. The Dow has lagged the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 this year amid escalating trade tensions, which have weighed on shares of larger, multinational U.S. companies. The S&P 500 also closed at a record high Friday, its sixth in the last month.(LPL)

 

Existing home sales remained unchanged at 5.34 million in August, the lowest level since March 2016. Year over year, existing home sales fell 1.5%, the sixth straight decline for the data. Existing home sales, which account for 85-90% of total home sales, are a prime signal of a cooling U.S. housing market, an area of the economy that still hasn't fully recovered since the financial crisis. Housing is an important part of output, accounting for approximately 15% of gross domestic product if you include the money spent on construction, maintenance, and rent. (LPL)

 

Embattled Wells Fargo is slashing its workforce by five to ten percent over the next three years, as the bank aims to reduce costs by $4 billion by 2020. Wells Fargo currently employs around 264,500 workers. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



Amazon is considering opening 3,000 of its cashierless stores by 2021 according to Bloomberg. It currently has three locations — known as Amazon Go — open in Seattle. It just opened a new location in Chicago.

 

Higher risk appetite has boosted longer-term yields as investors pivot to stocks from government bonds (leading to lower Treasury prices and higher yields). The 10-year yield has closed above 3% for three straight days for just the second time since July 2011. The 10-year yield is also close to crossing its seven-year closing high. (LPL)

 

USA Today reported, “Americans’ incomes are rising, and a declining share of households are mired in poverty” in “a sign that the healthy economy is lifting Americans across the financial spectrum.” Median US household income rose 1.8 percent to an all-time high of $61,372, according to the Census Bureau. 

 

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its global growth forecast to 3.7% through the end of 2019, down from its March projection of 3.9%. The OECD highlighted increasing downside risks to the global economy, including narrowing growth in major global economies and higher uncertainty around monetary policy normalization and trade restrictions. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



Inconsistent housing recovery evident in August data. Housing starts, or the number of new housing units that have started construction, grew 9.2% in August. On the other hand, building permits declined 5.7% month over month, their biggest slide since February 2017. The NAHB homebuilders' sentiment index remained unchanged at a 10-month low in August. The housing recovery continues to flash conflicting signs, even as consumer sentiment has climbed in other areas of the economy. Housing is an important part of output, accounting for approximately 15% of gross domestic product. (LPL) 

 

After nearly a decade of little to no increases in Social Security benefits, the Senior Citizens League, a senior advocacy organization, forecasts benefits will jump by 2.8 percent in 2019 – the largest increase in seven years. That would boost the average beneficiary’s check by $39 per month. The cost of living adjustment was 2 percent in 2018.

 

Avon Products (AVP) was recently approached by Brazilian cosmetics company Natura Cosmeticos about a possible takeover, according to sources quoted by Dow Jones.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



A record-low 12% of Americans currently cite some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the U.S., down from 17% last month and one percentage point below the previous low of 13% recorded in May 1999. Mentions of the economy as the top problem reached 86% in February 2009, the highest in recent decades. (Gallup)

 

According to an American Action Forum analysis, the Trump Administration scrapped federal regulations at a record pace this year and saved taxpayers $1.3 billion, double the goal set by the president.

 

With just 97 days till Christmas the Wall Street Journal says retailers are struggling to fill seasonal positions ahead of the annual holiday rush, with the number of job openings surpassing the number of hires between March and June for the first time in ten years. Some retailers have started hiring holiday workers earlier this year, offering higher wages and extra perks, and hosting large recruiting fairs.

 

Average fund fees paid by investors decreased 8% in 2017. Morningstar's annual study of U.S. open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds looks at the largest one-year decline ever, and how it saved investors roughly $4 billion in fund expenses. 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 3% yesterday, testing what has been a psychological level for the yield this year. The 10-year yield has trended higher after it jumped 7 bps -- the most on a jobs report day since January 2017 - on September 7, when the August jobs report showed average hourly earnings grew at their fastest pace of the cycle. Calming global conditions have also helped lift longer-term Treasury yields. (LPL)

 

Eighty-two percent of American meals are prepared at home -- more than were cooked 10 years ago, according to researcher NPD Group Inc. The latest peak in restaurant-going was in 2000, when the average American dined out 216 times a year. That figure fell to 185 for the year ended in February, NPD said. (Bloomberg)

 

US capital expenditures are on the rise, with the $341 billion spent this year, putting it on pace to set a 25-year high. Companies are using the windfall from last year's tax cuts to spend freely, and first-half earnings rose some 25 percent for the S&P 500. (CNBC)

 

Share buybacks total more in 2018 than capital expenditures, the first time at least a decade, according to Goldman Sachs.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



U.S. stocks rebounded nicely last week amid the recovery in global equities. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight gain Friday, its longest winning streak since before the February sell-off. Positive developments in emerging-market countries and U.S. trade officials' efforts to arrange a new round of trade talks with China have boosted the MSCI All-Country World Index to five straight days of gains. (LPL)

After a mixed set of Chinese data on credit and lending conditions last week, the overall picture remains stable. Retail sales rose a solid 9% year over year. Industrial production expanded by 6.1%. (LPL)

Retail sales climb for a seventh month, their longest streak of gains since 2014. Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.1% last month. Consistent growth in retail sales reflects the health of the U.S. consumer, emboldened by fiscal stimulus implemented earlier this year. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP, so it is an important barometer for overall economic health. (LPL)

Amazon is investigating suspected data leaks and bribes of its employees. The actions were designed to give an edge to independent merchants who sell their products on Amazon. (WSJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Labor Department said that consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in August as declines in healthcare and clothing costs offset increases in the price of gasoline and rents.

According to the JOLTS report the number of U.S. job openings increased to 6.94 million in July, a record high. Higher job openings signal a healthy labor market with motivated employers. The more interesting was the quit rate, or voluntary quits as a percent of separations, which climbed to a 17-year high. An increasing number of workers quitting their jobs can put upward pressure on wages, boosting inflationary pressures in the economy.

Cross marketing and media content are all the rage. Mattel is launching a theatrical film division to produce features based on its popular toys like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and other brands. (CNBC)

Hershey is buying Pirate Brands, the makers of the very yummy Pirate’s Booty from B&G Foods for $420 million in cash. (CNBC)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when Tyler and I will talk about the burning question, “should retirees worry about inflation”.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Labor Department said U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent in August. Its first drop in 1-1/2 years, as declines in the prices of food and trade services offset an increase in the cost of energy. YOY PPI rose 2.8 percent.

Wells Fargo's plan to reimburse customers who had improperly been sold auto insurance was rejected by regulators. The bank must do more to make sure it has located and compensated every affected driver. (Reuters)

According to Goldman Sachs and Conde Nast’s 2018 Top Brands & Retailers Millennials Love report, Amazon is the leading destination for millennial men, with men ranking the site as their “favorite place to shop” in nearly every category. Men “tend to stick with what they know and like, rather than seek out new products, therefore they turn to Amazon as their one-stop shop.”

Sometimes good marketing ideas go wrong. As part of a Domino's Forever Campaign in Russia, the company offered 100 free pizzas each year for 100 years to customers that got tattoos of the brand's logo on visible parts of their body. Due to the surging number of people getting the tattoo Domino's curtailed the number of accepted winners to 350. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August reached 108.8, a new record in the survey’s history. Small business plans to create new jobs and job openings hit a 45-year high. The survey showed new records of small business owners who believe now is a good time to expand.

On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped the most on a jobs report day since January 2017 after August data showed average hourly earnings grew at their fastest pace of the economic cycle. Accelerating wage growth has re-ignited inflation expectations. (LPL)

ValueInsureds Modern Homebuyer Survey says 63 percent of respondents predicted home prices will see a correction within two years, the highest share since Spring 2016. Asked what will lower home prices, fifty-four percent said rising mortgage rates, 33 percent said the reduction in homeownership incentives under the 2017 tax reform, 16 percent said a stock market correction, and 11 percent said trade wars.

Schmidt's Deodorant, owned by consumer products giant Unilever, will close its Northeast Portland factory and lay off all 57 employees. Workers will lose their jobs effective October 31st. (Oregonian)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



So much for sell in May and going away. The S&P 500 Index has now posted five consecutive monthly gains. This rare feat is actually quite bullish: the S&P 500 has been up a year later in 24 of the 25 times this has happened. The most recent occurrence was actually a year ago, and the S&P 500 gained 17.4% over the ensuing 12 months. (LPL)

Last week, emerging market (EM) stocks officially entered a bear market, posting a 20% decline from their late-January peak. (Yahoo Finance)

On September 14, 2008, the day before Lehman failed, if you had bought the S&P 500 index you be up 130%. You would have been underwater underwater even three years later. But in the last 10 years the S&P 500 is up 130 percent and has posted an annual total return of 11 percent. A 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has returned 8 percent over the same 10 years. This is a great example of it is time in the market, not timing the market that counts. (CNBC)

Starbucks' Frappuccino is getting a makeover. The U.S. coffee giant is putting its drink on a diet, looking to reduce its high sugar levels, which have scared away health-conscious consumers and hurt sales. (WSJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



September has historically been a troublesome month for U.S. stocks. In fact, it has the lowest average return out of all 12 months going back to 1950. So far, September 2018 is off to a tough start, with the S&P 500 down all four days so far this month. Only twice in history has the S&P 500 fallen the first 4 days of September, in 1987 and 2001. (LPL)

 

Nonfarm payrolls rose 201K in August, The unemployment rate (3.9%) remained near its lowest level since 2000. Overall, job growth is slowing, which is expected this late in the cycle, but the labor market remains solid. Average hourly earnings rose 2.9% year over year, its fastest pace of growth in this economic cycle. (LPL)

 

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM's) Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index climbed to 58.5 in August, one of its highest readings of the economic cycle. Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of manufacturing health, rose to a 14-year high last month. With the services and manufacturing sectors firing on all cylinders, the U.S. economy could be poised for another strong quarter of economic growth. (LPL)

 

Costco says same store sales rose 9.5 percent in August. (Yahoo Finance)

 

S&P 500 is up 14 and the NASDAQ is up 37. The MSCI international index is lower.

Oil is up 29 cents at $68.04 a barrel.

Gold is down $3 at $1198 a Troy ounce.

 



The Labor Department says the US economy added 201,000 jobs in the month of August. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.9%. This in conjunction with yesterday’s unemployment report of 203,000 new claims, the lowest level since 1969, shows just how red-hot the job market is.

The Great Oregon Wine Co. has purchased Duck Pond Cellars. The price wasn’t disclosed. Great Oregon is owned by Integrated Beverage Group. Duck Pond, focused on pinot noir and pinot gris. (PBJ)

U.S. trade deficit in July widened by $4.3 billion, the most since March 2015, to $50.1 billion. The U.S. trade deficit has widened for two straight months after $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports were implemented in early July. The widening deficit is further evidence of tariffs' economic drag, which we estimate will weigh on gross domestic product growth this year. (LPL)

Nation’s Restaurant News says 67 percent of restaurant operators “cited increased competition for workers as a key driver in rising costs.”

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio. Tyler and I will discuss this week’s big tech selloff.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Doug Fisher, vice president of Intel's software group and a senior Oregon executive is retiring. Fisher, 57, is an Oregon State University graduate and has worked for Intel for 23 years. (Oregonian)

Delta Dental of California is investing $155 million for a 50 percent ownership stake in Portland-based health insurer Moda. Moda lost $10.1 million in the first half of the year.
Moda's lines of business include health and dental insurance, as well as a specialty pharmacy. (PBJ)

Mortgage Bankers Association says applications to purchase a home increased 1 percent for the week and were 2 percent higher than a year ago.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to a 14-year high of 61.3%.

The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch for August shows a continued decrease in the rates of small business jobs and wage growth, it also reveals that weekly hours worked are on the rise. The top regions for employment growth and wage growth, respectively, are the South and West.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



It's hard to believe, but we are officially in the month of September. Although this means football and cooler weather, it also means a historically poor month for stocks. Since 1950, September has been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500. The good news is when the S&P 500 starts September above its 200-day moving average (like 2018), the returns have been much better. (LPL)
 
The overall trend in CEO optimism has remained largely unchanged, maintaining favorable levels over the past year. In Q2 2018, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 104.1.
 
American Outdoor Brands reported an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share. The parent company of Smith & Wesson was helped by new products and reduced discounts. The company said it would have stronger than expected growth for the current quarter. (CNBC)
 
Uber will start operations in Eugene and Springfield next Thursday. (ERG)
 
Kah-nee-ta Resort & Spa will close for good on today eliminating 146 jobs. Kah-nee-ta opened in 1964. (Oregonian)
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



We start a new month of trading this morning. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher in April, May, June, July, and August only 5 times. 2018 was the 6th time. The good news? In the past instances the final 4 months have never been lower and the usually tricky September is actually quite strong. (LPL)

Personal income rose 0.3% in the month, reducing year-over-year growth to 4.7%. (LPL)

Core personal consumption expenditures (excluding food and energy), the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.0% year over year in July, matching the Fed's target for the first time since 2012.

A federal agency has ruled that Canadian paper imports don't hurt American producers. This eliminates tariffs that had raised prices and squeezed margins at struggling newspapers. (Bloomberg)

The Portland headquartered General Steel Drum company has acquired North Coast Container of Cleveland, Ohio. General Steel Drum is owned by the Stavig family. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. (PBJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



It is the last trading day of the month of August. The S&P 500's incredible summer rally continues, as U.S. stocks are on track to post their fifth straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 has also performed surprisingly strong this month, as its 3% gain is its second-biggest rally in August since 2000. (LPL)

The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high for four consecutive days this week. The longest such streak since six in a row to start 2018. The all-time record for consecutive new highs was 12 in a row in 1929, while in more recent times there was a streak of 11 in 1964. Interestingly, this is the first time the month of August has seen four consecutive new highs since 1987. New highs in August are somewhat rare, as since 1950, no month has "fewer" new highs than August. (LPL)

Consumer spending grew 0.4% month over month in July, boosting its year-over-year growth to 5.2%, the strongest pace since October 2014. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. (LPL)

Join us this weekend on this great station for Financial Focus Radio, the truth can wealth building. This way people talk about the coming bear market.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Same store sales at Dick's Sporting Goods stores tumbled 4 percent during the latest quarter. Dick's raised its profit outlook for the full year. Dick's said online sales increased 12 percent during the quarter. (Reuters)

The Mortgage Bankers Association said total home loan application volume decreased 1.7 percent last week.

Tailored Brands said it expects second quarter earnings to be better than expected. The parent of the Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank clothing chains also said Chief Executive would retire at the end of September. (CNBC)

GDP revision reinforces solid second-quarter growth. Gross domestic product growth was revised up to 4.2%. The contribution to output from business spending was 0.15% higher and the contribution from net exports was 0.11% higher. This puts us on track for GDP growth in 2018 to be at or above 3%. (LPL)

Hood River-based, Tofurky, the vegetarian food-maker, is suing Missouri to defend its right to describe its products with meat terminology such as "sausage" and "hot dogs. The Missouri Cattlemen's Assoc supported the new law banning plant based products from using the terms. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      

 



The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 133.4 in August, its highest level since October 2000.
Consumers expecting business conditions will get better over the next six months increased to 24.3 percent.

In June, home prices nationally rose 6.2 percent year-over-year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. That is down from the 6.4 percent annual gain in May.

Campbell Soup will announce this week that it does not plan to sell the entire company, according to sources quoted by the New York Post.

Data for July showed the U.S. merchandise trade deficit widened to $72.2B, its biggest m-o-m increase since March 2015. Last month's growth in the trade deficit was driven by a sharp decline in exports, reflecting the impact of imposed tariffs over the past few months. (LPL)

Record short position, those speculating on the direction of rates in 10-year Treasury futures, has increased to its biggest size on record.

Oreo's parent company Mondelez announced that its two newest iterations of the cookie, hot chicken wing and wasabi-flavored, are now available in China. (Fortune)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                    



Outstanding earnings season by many measures. Second quarter numbers were strong even without the boost from the new tax law, while guidance was generally positive despite tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. With just 15 index constituents left to report, S&P 500 Index earnings rose 25% year over year, nearly matching the 26% growth rate from the quarter before. Even without the boost from tax cuts (estimated 6-7%) earnings growth came in at a still-outstanding 18-19%. (LPL)

The S&P 500 just made its first new high in 7 months last Friday. Since 1950, the S&P 500 had gone more than 6 months without making a new high 18 other times. What happened after that first new high was made? It was higher a year later 17 times. (LPL)

Oregon has been a smoky place this summer and it comes with a cost. Wildfires have cost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival $2 million in lost revenue because of smoky conditions. (AP)

Oregon hazelnut farmers anticipate a bumper crop this fall and projects Oregon production will double over the next few years as newly planted planted acreage reaches maturity. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



The Commerce Department said orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased 1.4 percent in July. Core capital goods orders increased 7.2 percent on a year-on-year basis.
 
If you were looking for relief on your state tax deduction you are going to be disappointed. The Treasury and IRS issued new rules to block high tax states' attempts to circumvent the new $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions. (CNBC)
 
Procter & Gamble (PG) has applied to trademark millennial-friendly internet acronyms including "LOL," "WTF," "FML" and "NBD" for use on soap and cleaning products. (NY Post)
 
In the midst of the China currency and economic concerns of 2015, three years ago was the first time that the Dow ever fell 1,000 points. It didn't close down 1,000 points and on a percentage basis this wasn't the largest drop ever, but it was still a harsh reminder that volatility can come at any time. Only two other times in history has it dropped 1,000 points during the day and both of those were this past February. On a percentage basis, the Dow was down 6.62% at the lows three years ago today. The largest ever was 25.33% during the Crash of '87. (LPL)
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Short positions in Treasury futures were historically high just two months ago, and now they are 50% higher. Many of these short positions were put on over the last six months while the 10-year Treasury yield has hovered in its current 2.8-3.0% range. Yield moves meaningfully below that level could squeeze short positions, pressuring shorts to buy Treasury futures to cover their positions, which could pressure rates downward further. (LPL)

The Wall Street Journal reports that the unemployment rate for Americans ages 16-24 is at its lowest since 1966. The unemployment rate is 9.2 percent, down from 9.6 percent last year. However, the share of young people looking for work is below the peak hit in 1989.

Barron’s says that the “combination of last winter’s brutal cold and this summer’s droughts has hurt” the wheat crop. Prices will reach “levels not seen since 2012,” with the USDA predicting global wheat production will fall to 730 million tons.  

ValueInsured Modern Homebuyer Survey found that in Q3 2018 only 48 percent of Millennials see value in buying a home, a decrease from 54 percent in Q2. Housing “confidence and enthusiasm of Millennials has plummeted to a record low.”

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Today the current bull market tops the 1990s bull market as the longest ever. However, be aware that the 1990s bull market saw the S&P 500 Index gain 417%, while the current bull market is up approximately 320%—so you can’t call this the greatest bull market…yet. (LPL)

The S&P 500 Index made a new all-time high yesterday its first since January 26, 2018 (LPL)

Treasury yield curve flattens back to decade lows. The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields is now back below 25 basis points. This bout of flattening is mainly being driven by a modest decline in longer-term yields over the past two weeks (as opposed to a rise in short-term yields). With market expectations pricing in a 90% chance of a September rate hike and a 55% chance of a subsequent December hike, upward pressure on the front end of the curve has not waned, despite risk-off sentiment leading to long-end bidding. (LPL)

Nabisco-parent Mondelez has redesigned the packaging of its animal crackers, showing the animals roaming free instead of in cages, after pressure from PETA. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



S&P 500 earnings growth is now tracking to +24.6% year over year for the second quarter. Revenue growth is tracking to +9.4% year over year. (LPL)

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in July, its 26th consecutive monthly gain.  The LEI, which is a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers' new orders, stock prices, and weekly unemployment claims), shows that the economic expansion is still intact and healthy. The LEI is up 6.3% year over year. The longer-term trend in the LEI is especially important, as the LEI has turned negative YOY before every economic recession dating back to the 1970s. (LPL)

Guinness is opening the $90 million Guinness Open Gate Brewery & Barrel House Aug. 3 near Baltimore, its first U.S. brewery in more than 60 years. The attraction is expected to host 300,000 visitors a year. (CNBC)

Constellation Brands who for seven decades has made its money off beer, wine and whiskey, sees its future in marijuana. They will spend about $3.8 billion to boost its stake in Canadian grower Canopy Growth Corp., betting legalization will gain traction around the world and especially in the U.S. (FBN)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                     
 



The S&P 500 Index posted its most volatile week since early June. The index was up about 0.3% for the week, posting and average daily move of 0.7% over the period. The S&P 500 has closed within 2% of record highs for 12 consecutive trading days, the longest such streak since September 2017.  (LPL)

Economic data a mixed bag. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business outlook survey fell to 11.9, a 21-month low. Housing starts grew 0.9% last month (missing expectations of 7.4% growth) after declining 12.3% in June, indicating cooling in U.S. new-home construction. Applications for unemployment benefits fell to 212k last week. The 4-week rolling average for jobless claims is now 214k, hovering near its lowest point of the economic cycle. (LPL)

Intel, Oregon’s largest employer, has purchased a three-year-old Seattle artificial intelligence startup called Vertex.AI. The terms of the deal were not disclosed.
(Oregonian)

SodaStream the Israeli-based at-home carbonated drink-maker agreed to be bought by U.S. beverage giant PepsiCo for $3.2 billion in cash, or $144 per share. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



Concerns about global trade and Turkey shouldn't be dismissed as misplaced or paranoia. Though mostly currency driven, we have seen some signs of fundamental deterioration recently in the form of earnings estimate reductions for the MSCI EM Index. Specifically, over the past three months, EM estimates for the next 12 months have come down by 3.9%, while comparable S&P 500 estimates have risen 3.5%. (LPL)

Wholesale used-vehicle prices climbed 1.51% last month. The increase in prices lifted the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 136.9, the highest level ever recorded by the auto auction company. The index is also up 5.1% in the past year.

The Wall Street Journal reports the USDA monthly world Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, forecast that US soybean production will reach a record-high 4.6 billion bushels in 2018-19.

Bloomberg says Amazon captured around five percent of retail spending in the US last year, excluding cars, car parts and restaurants and bars. Rival Walmart took around 10 percent of such spending. With Amazon’s revenue increasing its share of that spending may rise to six percent this year.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



U.S. stocks halted a multiday tumble yesterday, with the three main equity benchmarks advancing as Turkey’s currency slide abated, allowing investors to focus instead on a healthy domestic economy and strong corporate results.

The National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index rose 0.7 points in July to 107.9. The NFIB said it was the second-highest level in history and just under the 1983 peak.   The single most important issue flagged by small businesses were concerns about the quality of available labor.

The debt burden of U.S. households is the smallest it’s been in nearly 16 years.  Household debt — including mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans and other credit, is $13.29 trillion, which relative to disposable income is the lowest it’s been in 16 years.
Home improvement retailer Home Depot reported earnings and revenue that beat expectations and upped their outlook. It is the continuation of a trend that has persisted for a few years: in the face of lean housing inventory and little new supply on the horizon, Americans are increasingly choosing to take matters into their own hands.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, I’m Tyler Simones



U.S. stocks closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 down for a fourth straight session as the ongoing turmoil in Turkey dampened investors’ appetite for riskier assets.

Don’t look now, but on August 22, 2018, this current bull market in stocks will top the 1990s bull market as the longest ever. However, be aware that the 1990s bull market saw the S&P 500 Index gain 417%, while the current bull market is up approximately 320%—so you can’t call this the greatest bull market…yet.

2nd Quarter earnings season is entering the final stretch. With more than 90% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported second quarter results, year-over-year earnings growth for the index is tracking to an impressive +24.4%, nearly 4% above expectations as of June

Shares of the food distribution giant Sysco were sharply higher yesterday after the food distribution giant reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations.  Sysco’s stock has rallied 33% over the last 12 months.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones



Turkey’s problems are spilling over into the broader markets this morning, as the Lira touched an all-time low against the dollar and plunged 13% overnight as Turkish president Erdogan called on citizens to convert their dollars and gold into Lira.  The Euro also touched a 13 month low against the dollar over concerns of European Banking exposure to Turkey.  

In Delaware, US Federal Judge Leonard Stark has authorized the seizure of Citgo Petroleum to satisfy a Venezuelan government debt owed to a defunct Canadian gold miner.  The ruling could likely set off a scramble among Venezuela’s many unpaid creditors to wrest control of its only obviously seizable U.S. asset, as Venezuela’s oil production continues to plummet.  

With us GDP growing at a 4.1% clip last quarter and the job market solid, consumer inflation has become the wild card for economists. The latest figure, which could be the highest in more than six years, will be released this morning by the Labor Department. Expectations are for CPI to have increased 2.3% Y/Y, and headline CPI (including food and energy) to have reached a 3% Y/Y pace for the first time since December 2011.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.



U.S. stocks closed mostly lower yesterday following a batch of weak earnings reports from high-profile firms such as Walt Disney and Snap.  However, the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to a fifth session as technology shares outperformed the broader market.

China just announced they are slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment, the Chinese commerce ministry said, as the world's largest economies escalated their trade dispute.

The CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, famously tweeted earlier this week that he was considering taking the company private.  Now the Securities and Exchange Commission has made inquiries to Tesla over Elon Musk's going-private tweet, including examining whether the chief executive's statement was factual and why the disclosure was made on Twitter rather than on an official filing.  We are sure to hear more about this in the future.

As we near the end of earnings season, two trends are clear: Profits have gone through the roof, helped by lower corporate income taxes. But sales have also increased remarkably, and that trend started before the tax cuts went into effect.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, I’m Tyler Simones
 



The S&P 500 Index posted its second highest close ever yesterday, less than 0.5% away from a new all-time high. The S&P 500 has now gone 133 trading days (over six months), without a new high. Since the bull market started in March 2009, this is now the second longest stretch without a new high (the longest was May 2015 until July 2016). (LPL)

10-year hits the 3% wall. The 10-year Treasury yield has run up against the psychological 3% level yet again. After closing barely above 3% last Wednesday for the first time since May 22, the 10-year yield has steadily inched back down, currently trading near 2.95%. (LPL)

Tariffs are having little impact on overall earnings guidance. Forward four quarter estimates have impressively risen 0.6%. With less than 100 S&P 500 companies left to report (47 coming this week) suggests tariffs have had little broad impact on companies' outlooks. (LPL)

The Wall Street Journal reports employment in the manufacturing sector has increased since the end of the last recession in 2009, and growth has increased over 2018. Factory hiring is more than twice as strong this year as it was during January- July 2017.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



With 404 S&P 500 Index companies having reported second quarter 2018 earnings results, a solid 79% have exceeded earnings targets, delivering robust 23.5% year-over-year growth on a nearly 3% upside surprise. Revenue growth of 9.2% is a solid 1.1% above expectations. (LPL)

S&P 500 on its hottest streak of the year. The S&P 500 capped its fifth straight positive week. The first such streak since the week ending Dec. 22, 2017. Five-week winning streaks are a rare feat of strength for the S&P 500: the index has posted 8 five-week winning streaks since February 2013 (and five 6-week winning streaks over that same period). The S&P 500 gained 0.8% last week.  (LPL)

More trouble for Wells Fargo. According to the Wall Street Journal it is under scrutiny from federal regulators over the bank's purchase of tax credits designed to fund low income housing.

The laws of economics still apply. Supply and demand rule the day. Oregon report enforcement found nearly 70 percent of the legal recreational marijuana grown goes unsold. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



The Labor Department  says a record 155,965,000 people were employed in July, the 11th record-breaker since President Trump took office 19 months ago. The unemployment rates for adult men (3.4 percent) and Whites (3.4 percent) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.1 percent), and Blacks (6.6 percent) showed little or no change. The unemployment rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 4.5 percent. The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent in July, was unchanged. Hourly earnings rose by 7 cents to $27.05. For the year, hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or 2.7 percent.

Milwaukie, Oregon-based Bob's Red Mill Natural Foods says that Bob Moore will give up the CEO title 40 years.
Dennis Vaughn, the company's chief operating officer and vice president of operations, will take over as CEO. Moore, 89, founded the company in 1978. (PBJ)

Forbes contributor Jon Bird says consumers are “turning a blind eye to the environmental cost of online retail, particularly when it comes to packaging.” For instance, Blue Apron “sends out around 8 million meals a month, each one containing two six-pound ice packs,” and the “freezer pack waste is about 192,000 tons per year.”

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The US economy added 157,000 jobs in July according to the US Department of Labor. The unemployment rate stands at 3.9%.

Global manufacturing activity is slowing. Markit's global purchasing managers' index slipped to a still expansionary 52.7. Eurozone activity held steady. China's reading slowed for the second straight month, which reflects some impact from ongoing trade disputes. (LPL)
The official ISM Manufacturing Index in the U.S. came in at 58.1 in July, adding to evidence that tariffs and risk of escalation are beginning to impact US manufacturers. However, this reading is still quite strong. (LPL)

U.S. and EM still look like better bargains than Europe. The S&P 500 Index is trading at a reasonable 16.5x earnings estimates for the next four quarters, 2% above the post-1995 average. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, at 11.5x, is trading 3% below its average for this period. Europe, at 14x, is trading 12% above its 23-year average which, given that market's relatively more defensive sector mix, is expensive.

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio. Check listings at www.financialfocusrasdio.com .

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



U.S. stocks traded mostly lower yesterday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled another imminent rate increase.  Fresh worries over the U.S.-China trade friction dampened investor sentiment although positive results from Apple buoyed the tech sector and helped the Nasdaq to keep a foothold in positive territory.


According to the payroll company ADP companies in the private sector added 219,000 new employees to their payrolls in July, showing that firms are managing to fill a record number of job openings despite growing shortages of skilled labor.


According to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, 80% of the S&P 500 stocks that have reported second-quarter earnings so far have topped profit expectations, well above the historical average of 67%.


Car maker Tesla reported 2nd quarter earnings losing more than expected.  Tesla said they lost $718 million, or $4.22, in the quarter, compared with $336 million, or $2.04 a share, in the year-ago period.  The company continues to have a very high cash burn rate.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, I’m Tyler Simones



US Stocks traded lower yesterday, led lower by the tech heavy NASDAQ which closed at it's lowest level in 3 weeks.
 
Shares of heavy equipment maker Caterpillar traded higher yesterday after the company reported 2nd quarter earnings that rose from a year ago which was a surprise as investors had expected the recently imposed tariffs to hurt CAT's earnings.
 
Shares of the food company Tyson Foods traded sharply lower after the company cut their full year profit guidance on trade uncertainties related to tariffs and volatility in commodity prices.
 
And according to the National Association of Realtors, pending homes sales in the US rose 1% in June which was better than expected.  The housing market increasingly appears to be running on fumes as demand continues to overwhelm supply.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones



US Stocks closed lower Friday, but were higher on the week thanks to a slew of good earnings reports from some of America's biggest companies.
 
This week will be another busy week for the markets as investors get the July jobs report on Friday and Apple, Tesla and hundreds of other companies earnings reports this week.  All told investors will have to digest 12 major economic reports this week that could be market movers.
 
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week as the have said the economy is growing strongly and inflation is at their 2% target making more rate hikes this year likely.
 
US Consumers are paying more for products from R.V.'s to soda as tariff's on metal and parts are putting pressure on US manufacturers. US Steel and aluminum prices are up 33% and 11%.
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones
 



The Commerce Department said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6 percent last month. Business spending on equipment has risen since the fourth quarter of 2016. Business spending on equipment is being supported by the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion income tax cut package, which came into effect in January.

Mattel lost 56 cents per share last quarter. The toy maker’s revenue also missed forecasts, hurt by the Toys R Us liquidation. The company will be cutting 2,200 jobs or about 22 percent of its global non-manufacturing workforce. (CNBC)

U.S. economy remains the standout. The dip in Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index last month (to 51.6), coupled with stronger readings and slight increases month over month in the U.S., continue to point to the U.S. as the global growth leader. However, Europe's reading (55.1), which is in line with the U.S. (55.5), did stabilize after a sizable drop earlier this year while broader data in Europe has improved in recent months relative to expectations. (LPL)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio. Check listings at www.financialfocusrasdio.com .

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



Manufacturing data shows solid growth, but evidence of tariff impacts have started to emerge. The U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data was 55.5. However, average prices charged grew at the fastest pace on record amid increases in input costs, as survey respondents noted higher raw material and fuel costs. Suppliers' delivery times were also the longest on record amid low inventory and capacity constraints, showing that supply chain constraints are causing significant disruption. While manufacturing growth has been strong this year, the surge in prices and supply chain disruptions could curb further economic activity. (LPL)

The Commerce Department reports new home sales dropped 5.3 percent month, the lowest level since October 2017. The median new house price fell 4.2 percent to $302,100 in June from a year ago. There were 301,000 new homes on the market in June, up 1.7 percent from May. Supply is just over half of what it was at the peak of the housing market boom in 2006. Nearly two-thirds of the houses sold last month were either under construction or yet to be built.

The Mortgage Bankers Association says volume was 12.6 percent lower than a year ago. Mortgage applications to purchase a home is 2 percent higher than last year.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



It is the busiest week of earnings season. The Dow has a three-day losing streak, but the S&P 500 is coming off its first gain in three days and the Nasdaq saw its first gain in four sessions yesterday. (CNBC)

Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 Index earnings for the quarter, setting up a second-straight quarter of 20+ growth. Should results come in ahead of expectations, it would mark the 37th consecutive quarter of earnings exceeding expectations. Tax cuts, strong manufacturing activity, a weaker U.S. dollar and higher oil prices all point to strong results. With 87 S&P 500 companies having reported, the season is off to a good start: 84% of companies have exceeded earnings estimates. (LPL)

Papa John’s has adopted a shareholder rights plan which would be implemented if a shareholder amasses a 15 percent stake in the company. The plan is designed to prevent a shareholder from gaining control of the pizza chain and is seen as a move to thwart founder John Schnatter from taking control. (CNBC)

Alphabet reported a profit of $11.75 per share. Revenue rose 25 percent yoy, helped by a 58 percent jump in paid clicks. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



President Trump said he is ready to go with tariffs on $500 billion in Chinese imports in an effort to drive an agreement. Tariffs on just $34 billion in Chinese goods have been implemented thus far, with $16 billion coming soon and an additional $200 billion previously threatened. With China only buying about $130 billion in U.S. goods, Chinese retaliation would have to come in other forms, such as regulatory actions, boycotts, currency devaluation, U.S. Treasury sales, or other non-tariff actions. These latest developments may bring the tit-for-tat closer to its end, though resolution may take the bulk of the summer. (LPL)

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of our favorite economic indicators, painted a continued strong backdrop for future economic growth, as it rose 0.5% month over month and 5.8% year over year. While the yield curve has been getting all the attention recently, the LEI has a solid track record of predicting recessions. (LPL)

Cal-Maine Foods, the nation’s largest egg producer posted a quarterly profit of $1.48 per share. Cal-Maine said the market may see additional pricing pressure to due to an expected increase in the U.S. laying hen flock and potential excess egg supply. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



Business confidence remains strong based on the latest survey data from the National Federation of Independent Business. The percentage of small business owners indicating it is a good time to expand dipped slightly from May to June but remains above the peaks of the past three decades. Strong data from the Institute for Supply Management tells the same story, even though all Federal Reserve (Fed) districts cited concerns about the continued tightening of the labor market, inflationary pressures, and tariffs in the Fed's Beige Book. (LPL)
 
The Dream on Hold, a study by RENTCafe reports that families are “being squeezed into rental properties.” Data shows that homeownership by families decreased by nearly 3.6 million over the last decade, while the number of families living in rentals increased by 1.9 million. 
 
More than 12.8 million Americans are currently working in the US manufacturing industry. The last time that many Americans were working in manufacturing was back in December 2008. (Breitbart)
 
RLK and Company, which owns Timberline Lodge has purchased Summit Ski Area which sits just off U.S. 26 in Government Camp. Neither party disclosed the purchase price. (OregonLive)
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.    
 


Industrial production in June rose 0.6%, reversing a 0.5% decline in May. Manufacturing output climbed 0.8%, the most in four months and capacity utilization continued to rise. The rebound in industrial production is a signal of economic growth and could help lift the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Currently, the Bloomberg consensus for the second-quarter GDP is 4.0%. (LPL)
 
According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers equipment sales in the first half of 2018 are up sharply over last year, led by a 20.5% increase in combine sales. Total tractor sales for 2018 so far are up 6.5% compared to the first half of 2017.
 
Berkshire Hathaway eliminated its own restrictions on buying back the company’s stock. A new policy allows buybacks to be authorized when Berkshire’s Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger feel the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value. (Reuters)
 
The Commerce Department said U.S. homebuilding fell to a nine-month low in June and permits declined for a third straight month. Housing starts fell 12.3 percent. Building permits dropped 2.2 percent. Single-family homebuilding decreased 9.1 percent. Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment plunged 19.8 percent.
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 


The Eager Report says entrepreneurs registered 301 new businesses in Bend in June a 21% increase over registrations in June 2017. Bend continued to lead the way in large city business registrations, with one business registered in February for every 303 residents, the highest rate of business registration among larger Oregon cities. Statewide, the average was a new business for every 690  residents.
 
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis foreign investors spent $259.6 billion to acquire, launch, and expand businesses in the United States in 2017. That's down from a historic high of $439.5 billion in 2015. The largest of last year's foreign investment came from Canada, followed by the United Kingdom and Japan. (CNN)
 
Investment in the global energy sector totaled $1.8 trillion in 2017, marking a 2 percent drop from the previous year. A drop in spending on power plants offset a moderate increase in money flowing into the electric grid. (CNBC)
 
The USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. It estimates soybean stocks for 2018-19 at a record 580 million bushels, up about 50 percent from its previous estimate.
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



The Labor Department said U.S. producer prices increased 0.3 percent in June. In the last 12 months the PPI is up 3.4 percent, the largest gain since November 2011. Inflation is gradually rising against the backdrop of a labor market that is near or at full employment.

Oregon placed 19th in the CNBC best states for business, that is down two spots from last year. The report says, “The Beaver State has a great economy, but heavy regulation holds back business success.” In the factors considered Oregon did not score any A’s and got an F for cost of living and D+ for business friendliness.

Workers are leaving their jobs at the fastest rate since the Internet boom and they are landing higher pay and more satisfying work as a result. According to the Labor Department, 3.4 million Americans quit their jobs in April. Workers are emboldened by the strong economy and low unemployment.

Trucking companies increased rig orders by 18.5% in June over May, according to data from ACT Research. Big rig orders are driving factory backlogs to their highest levels in almost twenty years, and the June 2018 rig orders are roughly double the number ordered the previous June.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index for June was the sixth-highest reading in survey history. The index saw a 0.6-point decrease to 107.2. Since December 2016, the Index has averaged 105.4, significantly above the 45-year average of 98 and nearing the all-time high of 108.0 in July 1983.
 
Bizwomen reports customers who tried but were unable to purchase a product at a physical store because it was out of stock account for more than 20 percent of Amazon’s North America sales. IHL Group found Amazon Prime members who can’t find what they want in a store are 52 percent more likely than other consumers to buy what they need online.
 
NFIB reports the share of US firms with open positions rose to 36 percent in June, matching November 2000 as the highest in monthly records back to 1973. Twenty-one percent of small-business owners said finding qualified workers was their biggest problem, also near a record level.
 
Kah-Nee-Ta Resort & Spa, owned by the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs is closing and will permanently lay off 146 employees. The closure includes the lodge, spa, hotel and RV park. (PBN)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



One of the most popular market-related discussions recently is on the yield curve. The reason being the yield curve (as measured by the 2-10 year Treasury spread) is at its flattest level since right before the financial crisis. Also, the past nine recessions have all been preceded by an inverted yield curve. It is important to note that the yield curve is not currently inverted, but that hasn't stopped the masses from focusing on it. Here's the catch, looking at the past five recessions shows that a recession didn't officially start until an average of more than 21 months after the yield curve initially inverted. The S&P 500, meanwhile, added an average of nearly 13% over this timeframe and was higher in every single instance.
(LPL)

Shopping malls across the U.S. haven’t been this empty in six years. The mall vacancy rate for the second quarter is 8.6% up from 8.4% in Q1. Retailers such as, Sears, J.C. Penney and Toys “R” Us have all announced closures this year. (LINKedin)

Pepsi reported quarterly earnings. Their snack business, which includes brands like Doritos and Tostitos, grew 4 percent. Its North American beverage business, which includes Gatorade and its namesake cola, dropped 1 percent. Total revenue rose 2.4 percent. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Ford's slump in China intensified, with vehicle sales tumbling 38 percent in June and the automaker recording its worst ever first-half there as buyers shunned its aging models. (Reuters)

Roughly 70 percent of all Chinese fireworks entering the United States come here under the control of a Chinese businessman who has used his influence to raise prices and block competitors. The average daily fireworks containers shipped from China to the US in April and May of 2018 was 108. That is 241 million pounds of fireworks. (Wash. Post)

Home prices jumped 7.1 percent annually in May, according to CoreLogic. That's the biggest jump in four years. The median price of an existing home sold in May was $264,800. The supply of homes for sale has been dropping on an annual basis for the past 36 months.

Manufacturing remains a bright spot. The June ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 60.2, better than last month. The bottom line is the trade concerns didn't appear to slow down manufacturing. Manufacturing is about 10% of the overall gross domestic product. (LPL)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The U.S. and China slapped levies on $34 billion of each other’s exports, the first tangible shots in a trade battle that both sides are bracing to fight for months—if not years.  The new levies took effect after midnight Eastern Time in the U.S. In response, a commission of China’s State Council said it applied tariffs on 545 items “including agricultural products, vehicles, and aquatic products,” according to state-run Xinhua News Agency.  (WSJ)
 
A better than expected jobs report this morning: the unemployment rose to 4% in June, ticking up from 3.8% from the month before. While economists had expected the jobless rate to hold at that level--the lowest since 2000--the increase was largely due to 601,000 Americans entering the labor force. (FT)
 
The EU is preparing a new list of duties against the U.S. in case President Trump moves ahead with tariffs on European cars, FT reports. It reportedly includes levies worth €18B, which will target staples like ketchup, as well as frozen fish, raisins, suitcases and adhesive bandages.
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.



Oregon tech company Radisys, has been sold for $74 million to Reliance Industries Limited. Radisys sells communications networking equipment. Radisys had 600 employees at the end of last year. Just 50 were left at its Hillsboro headquarters. (Oregon Live)

The State of Oregon projects that Central Oregon will have fastest job growth in the state over the next ten years. If you've tried to hire a contractor lately, you won't be surprised to learn that the biggest job growth is projected in construction. (Eager Law)

Boeing is acquiring the commercial aircraft arm of Brazilian plane maker Embraer for $4.75 billion. (Reuters)

Amazon says its annual Prime Day will begin on July 16 and run for 36 hours. Prime Day will include deep discounts at Whole Foods. (CNBC)

Oregon is beer happy so this may have some appeal. The typical alcohol content in beer is between 4 and 8 percent, but for $200 per bottle, Samuel Adams offers a deluxe beer that packs 28 percent alcohol content. That translates to 56 proof, the same as Amaretto. The brew is illegal in 15 states. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Welcome to the third quarter. Historically the third quarter can be tricky for stocks, but especially so during a midterm year. In fact, going back to 1896 and the start of the Dow, this is the second worst quarter of the four-year presidential cycle. (LPL)

The shortened holiday week will likely see below-average trading volume with traders heading to beaches and barbecues. But that does not mean the economic calendar is quiet. In fact, quite the opposite with the ISM manufacturing data and the jobs report on Friday. (LPL)

The 2018 2Q Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, found that surveyed economists and real estate experts expect the U.S. will enter a recession in 2020. (FBN)

Too early to think of Christmas? Not for Kohl’s, which is getting a jump on finding seasonal workers for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. Faced with a tight labor market, the retail giant says it’s the earliest it has ever started searching for seasonal employees. Although Kohl’s hasn’t disclosed how many workers it plans to hire, about 70,000 additional workers were employed for the 2015 and 2016 seasons. (LinkedIn)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Toys R Us closed its doors in the U.S. on Friday. The defunct company still must sell its intellectual property. (CNBC)

Nestle is being urged by investor Daniel Loeb’s Third Point hedge fund to split into three divisions. They want Nestle to split into separate beverage, nutrition, and grocery units. (CNBC)

Kroger the parent company of the Fred Meyer is about to test a fleet of driverless cars designed to lower delivery costs. Customers will be able to order groceries from a mobile app. After the order is placed, a driverless vehicle will deliver the groceries at a curb, requiring the customers to unload. The vehicles will be opened with a numeric code. (Oregon Live)

Oregon workers earning the minimum wage got a raise yesterday. The minimum wage in the Portland climbed 75 cents, to $12 an hour. In Deschutes and Lane County minimum wage climbed to $10.75 and hour. In the rest of eastern Oregon minimum wage rose to $10.50 an hour. Sunday's increase is the second in a series of annual hikes approved in 2016. Oregon has one of the highest minimum hourly wages in the nation. (Oregon Live)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



More trade tensions are in the making on reports that Justin Trudeau will mark Canada's 151st birthday on Sunday by imposing tariffs on about C$19.4B worth of U.S. imports and providing aid to trade hit industries. The proposed tariffs will target metals, whiskies, mustard, toilet paper, washing machines, motorboats and maple syrup, in response to the American levies on Canadian steel and aluminum that went into effect a month ago.  (SA)

The debut of Walgreens into the Dow Jones Industrial Average this week marks the worst performance of any new entrant in the past decade. Shares are down more than 11% in the past three days - trimming more than 44 points off the index - after the company replaced GE. Walgreens also tumbled along with other drug retailers yesterday as Amazon made its entry into the industry by acquiring online pharmacy PillPack. (FT)

It's official! Twenty-First Century Fox shareholders will vote on Walt Disney's (NYSE:DIS) revised $71B bid for Fox's entertainment assets on July 27. The date effectively sets a deadline for Comcast to come back with a higher bid. Disney has already won DOJ approval for the deal on condition it sells 22 of Fox's regional sports networks. (WSJ)

S&P 500 futures are up 10 and NASDAQ futures are up 26. The MSCI international index is up 2/5 of a %.
Oil is up $.02 at $73.47 a barrel.
Gold is up $1 at $1252 a Troy ounce.
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.

 



The debt load for U.S. corporations has reached a record $6.3T, this according to S&P Global, as Wall Street investors brace for a stricter rate environment even as cash hoarding reaches a peak. The good news is that U.S. companies have a record $2.1T in cash to service that debt, however most of that cash is in the hands of a few giant corporations. (S&P)

 

Amazon is building out its own last-mile delivery service, pushing further onto the turf of shipping partners UPS and FedEx. The new program, called Delivery Service Partners, will let entrepreneurs run their own local delivery networks of up to 40 delivery vans emblazoned with Prime logos. (SA)

 

Today beings part 2 of the Fed’s annual bank stress tests, when lenders will learn whether they can boost buybacks and dividends to shareholders. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley barely squeaked by on the first part last week, and some analysts remain concerned about Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank.  The results come as the S&P 500 Financials Index fell for a 13th straight day on Wednesday - the longest losing streak on record - amid trade war worries and rising interest rates. (WSJ)

 

S&P 500 futures are down 2, and NASDAQ futures are down 9.  The MSCI international index is down about 1/5 of a %.

Oil is down $.23 at $72.53 a barrel. 

Gold is down $3 at $1253 an ounce.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, I'm Josh Fenili.



LEI continues to support a strong economy. The Leading Economic Index jumped 0.2% in May, after being up 0.4% each of the past two months. This index comprises 10 components (e.g., jobless claims, factory orders, and confidence) to show a picture of future economic health. This is key indicator we use as a warning sign for a pending economic slowdown, and fortunately we see little reason to expect a recession over the next 12 months. Year over year, this index is up +6.1%, well above the negative year-over-year signal that has preceded every recession going back to the early 1970s. (LPL)

 

Banks pass stress tests. Round one of the Federal Reserve's required testing for banks deemed "systemically important" to determine how they'd fare under severe economic conditions showed all 35 institutions received a passing grade for required capital minimums; though a few firms cleared the hurdle by a relatively small margin. (LPL)

 

UPS and the Teamsters have reached a tentative agreement on a new five-year labor contract. The prior agreement expires on July 31. (CNBC)

 

General Electric near a sale of its industrial engine unit to private equity firm Advent International. (CNBC)

S&P 500 is down 11 and the NASDAQ is down 60. The MSCI international index is lower.

Oil is up 31cents at $68.90 a barrel.

Gold is up $1 at $1271 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Mid Oregon Credit Union has acquired Bend-based High Desert Bank. High Desert Bank opened 2007. Its five employees have been offered jobs at Mid Oregon. Mid Oregon has seven branches in Central Oregon. (Bulletin)

OPEC may ramp up production. OPEC and Russia meet today in Vienna amid speculation that Saudi Arabia will get its 600K barrel/day output increase. Though likely, disagreement among several key members and the inability of secondary players to reach production targets introduce uncertainty. We see countervailing forces keeping oil prices largely range-bound near current levels, but strong global demand, geopolitics, and U.S. infrastructure bottlenecks offer the potential for a reversal of recent weakness. (LPL)

Foreign stocks getting cheaper. Recent underperformance by international stocks has helped those stocks get cheaper. On a forward price-to-earnings basis, the price-to-earnings multiple on the MSCI EAFE (developed international benchmark) has dropped from 15 to 13.7 this year. However, stronger earnings in the U.S. have led to a bigger drop in U.S. stock valuations, from 18.2 to 16.5. (LPL)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Americans applying for government disability benefits is plunging, evidence that a stronger economy is pulling people back into the job market (NY Times)

The 334.3 million mobile phones shipped during the first quarter of 2018 was a 2.9 percent decline year over year and was led by China, which declined to a level not seen since 2013. (IDC)

The National Association of Realtors say existing home sales slipped 0.4 percent last month. It was the second straight monthly decline in sales. Existing home sales, which make up about 90 percent of U.S. home sales, dropped 3.0 percent on a year-on-year basis in May. They have declined for three straight months.

Darden Restaurants', owners of the Olive Garden, saw quarterly results top Wall Street expectations. Darden earned $174.5 million, or $1.39 per share, up almost 41%. Revenue increased to $2.13 billion. Sales at Olive Garden restaurants open at least a year rose 2.4% in the quarter.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Commerce Department said U.S. homebuilding surged to near an 11-year high in May up 5% from last month. Building permits fell 4.6%, the lowest level since September 2017.

Barron’s reported fewer than half of US consumers look past the first five options, or the first page of results, at least half the time when searching for products on ecommerce sites.

Research published by Cowen & Co. found the amount of retail overlap between traditional retailers and online commerce continues to trend upwards. Cowen found that 87 percent of Target shoppers also visited Amazon, while 83 percent of Walmart consumers also shopped on the online platform.

The combined wealth of the world's millionaires rose for a sixth straight year, topping $70 trillion for the first time ever in 2017 thanks to an improving global economy and strong stock market performance. (USA Today)

General Electric is being dropped from the Dow after being included in the 30-stock index for 111 years. It will be replaced by drugstore chain operator Walgreens Boots Alliance. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 


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