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It is Inauguration Day!  Stock market are open today so free markets and democracy are the call of the day.

December housing starts leapt 11.3% to an annual rate of 1.23 million units.   November's starts were revised up to a 1.10 million-unit rate. (Commerce Department)

Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by 15,000 to 234,000 for the week. Claims for the previous week was 249,000. (Labor Department)

General Electric reported fourth-quarter profits of 46 cents per share on sales of $33.1 billion. Oil and gas revenue fell 22%, power systems revenue rose 20%, renewable energy revenue jumped 29%, and aviation rose 7%. (IBD)

Procter & Gamble, maker of Tide and Pampers reported profits of $7.88 billion, or $2.88 per share. Up from $3.21 billion, or $1.12 per share, a year earlier. P&G had sales of $16.85 billion. The company has been focusing on core brands, and sold 41 of its brands last year, including Clairol and Covergirl brands.  (Reuters)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when I will talk to our tax guru Greg Fowler and trusted insurance advisor Don Klippenes.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Januarys National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell 2 points. It stands at 67. The index was at 61 a year ago. All three of the index's components fell. Current sales conditions fell three points, sales expectations in the next six months fell two points, and buyer traffic fell one point. (CNBC)

Industrial production rose 0.8% in December.  With the cold weather the month saw the biggest jump in utilities since 1989. Industrial production fell at an annual rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing output edged up 0.2% and mining production was flat. Industrial capacity in use rose 0.6% in December to 75.5%. (Reuters)

Consumer prices climbed 0.3% in December. The CPI rose 2.1% in 2016 and was up 1.4% in 2015. Last month, gas climbed 3%, food prices were unchanged for a sixth straight month and the cost of food consumed at home dropped for an eighth consecutive month. (Reuters)

Rail carrier Union Pacific reported Q4 results. They had profits $1.39 per share up 6% from last quarter.  They had revenue of $2.0 billion, up 2%.  For all of 2016 profits were $5.07 per share a decline of 8%. Revenue totaled $7.3 billion, down 10%. (PR Newswire)
    
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Goldman Sachs had profits of $5.08 a share on revenue of $8.17 billion in Q4. A jump in trading helped spur the growth, with revenue from bond-related trading soaring 78.3%.  Goldman in 2016 employed 34,400 workers, 6.5% lower than last year. Goldman in Q4 had $1.5 billion in share buybacks. (CNBC)

The Ringling Bros. circus is closing after more than 100 years in operation. Before dimming the bright lights the Ringling Bros., will perform 30 shows between now and May. The cast of the circus is between 250 and 300 persons, with three performing units. The circus visits about 115 cities each year. Ringling Bros. was founded in 1884. The family ran the circus until 1967 when it was sold to Feld Entertainment. (CNN).

Target says same store sales declined 1.3% in the November-December period. The company expects fourth-quarter comparable sales to fall between 1.0% 1.5%.  Target saw December online sales growth of more than 40%. (Reuters)

S&P 500 is up 4 and the NASDAQ is up 8. MSCI International Index is lower.

Oil is down 90 cents at $51.59 a barrel. U.S. shale production will snap a three-month decline in February per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as drilling activity increases with crude prices at 18-month highs.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Retail sales increased 4% in the holiday shopping season, better than expected. The number is higher than the 10-year average of 2.5% growth. Online shopping increased 12.6%. (National retail Federation)

The Index of Consumer Sentiment hit 98.1 in January. That is equal to December. (University of Michigan)

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in December. The producer price index increased 1.6% in 2016. That's the biggest 12-month gain since September 2014, but still historically low. The biggest gains came in wholesale gas prices, up 7.8%. (Labor Department)

More consolidation in the tobacco world. British American Tobacco is buying the remainder of rival Reynolds American it doesn't already own.  The purchase price is a sweetened $49.4 billion. British American Tobacco already owns 42% of Reynolds American. (Reuters)

Growth in the phone market is not done yet. A new IHS Markit study says the global smartphone install base will grow 50% over the next four years to six billion devices.  Those smart phones will generate an estimated $355 billion in revenues.  

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Earnings season starts today with the big banks.  Leading the way is Bank of America. They reported profits of 40 cents per share on revenue $19.99 billion. Net interest income increased 6% to $10.3 billion in the fourth quarter, while loan balances climbed by $19 billion to $915.9 billion. Bank of America's net charge-off ratio improved to a historic low of 0.39%. Total mortgage production rose 29% year-over-year. (CNBC)

China's exports decreased 6.1% in December.  For all of 2016 Chinese exports dropped 7.7% the biggest decline since 2009. Chinese imports declined 5.5%. (CNBC)

Your federal tax refund will most likely be delayed this year.  You will have to wait a few weeks longer to get your check as the IRS cracks down on fraud.
Tax filing starts January 23rd. Direct deposit e-filers historically received their refunds within 21 days. Now it will be more like 35 days. (AP)

Apple's iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus and iPhone 6s accounted for 31% of smartphone sales in the US for the three months ended Nov. 30. (Recode)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will talk about a President Trump and your stocks.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



While the popular media seems obsessed with Dow 20,000 they are missing the real news. The Nasdaq hit another record yesterday working on its longest winning streak since early 2015. The S&P 500 closed just 2 points off a new high yesterday. (CNBC)  

J.M. Smucker is raising prices of its packaged coffee such as Folgers and Dunkin' Donuts by an average of 6%. Smucker is the biggest coffee roaster in the US. It is seeing sustained increases in green coffee costs. K-Cup pods were excluded from the price increase. (Reuters)

Wholesale inventories rose 1.0% in November. The largest gain in two years as inventory investment supports economic growth in the fourth quarter. Wholesale stocks of farm products surged 5.0%, petroleum climbed 2.7%, and machinery inventories fell 0.2%.(Reuters)

U.S. crude production is expected to rise by 110,000 barrels per day in 2017 to 9 million. US crude overall production was 8.95 million bpd last week, the most since April of last year. Domestic crude inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels last week. (Reuters)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The S&P 500 declined yesterday. The large-cap index fell just 0.0002 percent, the smallest move in almost two decades. (CNBC)

Wal-Mart will be giving hundreds of workers the boot in a fresh round of job cuts. The cuts will impact both store workers and employees at the company's headquarters. Many of the layoffs will be in its human resources department. This is the latest in a series of cuts as the company cuts expenses. In September, it cut 7,000 back-office jobs and in October 2015 it cut hundreds of positions at headquarters. (WSJ)

Taco Bell has come to Shanghai China. With more than 1,000 restaurants to be added by 2022. Yum China previously operated a handful of Taco Bell Grandes, but all closed by 2008. The China menu is different from America and include a shrimp and avocado burrito, spicy fried chicken, and Mexican fries. With more than 1.3 billion people and a huge emerging middle class, China represents massive growth opportunities for restaurant chains.  (WSJ)

Ford, the only US automaker not to be bailed out with your tax dollars, says they will not make as much money in 2017 as they did in 2016. Ford declared a special dividend of 5 cents per share in addition to its regular quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Since the election of Donald Trump small business optimism has rocketed to its highest level since 2004. The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism jumped to 105.8, an increase of 7.4 points. Leading the charge was “Expect Better Business Conditions,” which shot up from a net 12% in November to a net 50% in December. The other two big movers were “Sales Expectations” -  jumping by 20% and “Good Time to Expand,” up by 12%.

Oregon’s third largest bank, Eugene-based Pacific Continental, is merging with Tacoma, Washington based Columbia Bank in a deal valued at $644.1 million. The combined bank will have $12 billion in assets and more than 150 branches in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. The deal is expected to close in mid-2017. (Portland Business Journal)

So much for holiday cheer. Hostess Brands is recalling its limited edition white peppermint Hostess Twinkies, because of Salmonella contamination. (CNBC)

Oil is up 15 cents at $52.15 a barrel. Last week, U.S. companies added oil rigs for a 10th week in a row, for a total of 529. Analysts project the U.S. rig count could rise to 850-875 by year end. (Baker Hughes)

Gold is down $3 at $1182 a Troy ounce. Gold has been on a roller coaster since the election of Donald Trump, first plummeting and then regaining ground. Gold has seen eight consecutive weeks of outflows selling, the longest outflow streak in three years. That is $6 billion selling out of gold in about two months. (CNBC)  

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Companies start reporting Q4 earnings this week. The S&P 500 is expected to increase profits by 6.1% in the quarter. (Thomson Reuters).

The December average hourly wages climbed 10 cents to $26. That is a 2.9% annualized gain. The average work week was unchanged at 34.3 hours. (CNBC)

Investors bought $2.4 billion in U.S.-based stock funds last week. That is the second straight week of inflows. Taxable bond funds took in $1.2 billion during the week, following three straight weeks of withdrawals. (Lipper)

The British pound tumbled to $1.21 pounds to the dollar a two-month low. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she is not interested in keeping "bits of membership" of the EU as part of their Brexit. (Reuters)

Yum China, spun off by its U.S. parent last year, is relaunching Taco Bell in China, after an almost 10-year absence. It opens a new Taco Bell in Shanghai today. (PR Newswire)

The iPhone celebrates its 10th birthday today.  (Mashable)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



The big government monthly job report says the economy added 156,000 new jobs in December.  The private sector added 144,000 of those jobs – the balance were new government additions.  Unemployment rate is 4.7%. (Labor Dept.)

Employers cut 33,627 jobs in December in the US, up 25% from November's low.  Layoffs this December was up 42% from last year, which was the lowest monthly total in over 15 years. In 2016, companies posted 526,915 job cuts, down 12% from 2015. The top 5 job-cutting sectors of 2016 – energy, computer, retail, industrial goods, and financial. Texas, California, Arkansas, New York, and Illinois were the hardest states hit by layoffs. (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)

Stanley Black & Decker is buying Sears Craftsman tool brand for $900 million. Sears will continue to offer Craftsman-branded products through a perpetual license from Stanley Black & Decker. Stanley Black & Decker expects Craftsman to generate about $100 million of for the next 10 years. (Reuters)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when we will share with you the true secrets of building wealth.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



President-elect Donald Trump has selected Jay Clayton to head the Securities and Exchange Commission. Clayton worked on the high-profile initial public offering of Alibaba and is partner at Sullivan & Cromwell, specializing in public and private mergers. (CNBC)

Macy's had disappointing holiday sales and released the locations of 68 of the 100 stores it plans to close. Macy's sales fell 2.1% during the holiday season. The store closures are an attempt to reverse the downward slide in sales at its established stores. None of the new closures announced are in Oregon. Of the 68 stores closing, three were shuttered mid-year 2016, 63 will be closed in early spring, and two will be closed in the middle of the year. The retailer currently has 730 Macy's stores. Macys is down 10%. (Reuters)

Shares of Kohl's are down 14% as comparable same store sales were down 2.1% in November and December. The retailer lowered its earnings expectations for fiscal 2016 to $2.92 to $2.97 share, versus a previous guidance of $3.12 to $3.32 a share. (MarketWatch)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



As the stock market rallies since Donald Trump was elected President, some are trying to lead you to making a silly move and sell your well diversified portfolio in a quest to enter the market timers hall of fame – that empty room in Padauka, KY -- don’t fall for it. No one can time the market the facts prove it.  But that is not stopping  Morgan Stanley from saying it's time to start thinking about getting out, possibly timed for Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20,. (CNBC)

The ISM's manufacturing index had a very strong December hitting 54.7, up a sharp 1.5 points from November for the best score in 2 years. New orders hit 60.2 for another 2 year high and up 7.2 points. Production up 4.3 points to 60.3, employment up 8 tenths to 53.1, and export orders at 56.0 which is a 2-1/2 year high. (Econoday)

Oil prices continue to move higher as demand increases and supply sees some constraints. This year is anticipated to bring the highest gasoline prices since 2012. US drivers could be collectively pay $52 billion more at the pump than they did in 2016. (USA Today)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



First trading day of 2017, but let’s look back one more time at 2016. The NASDAQ was up 7.5% for the year and the S&P500 was up 9.54%.   The small cap Russell 2000 jumped a whopping 19.48% and the international index fell 1.88%.  The 10-year Treasury bond climbed 0.18% to close the year at 2.45%. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Steel will restart production at an idled plant and call back about 202 employees from layoff. It will restart the Keetac plant in Keewatin, Minnesota, more than 18 months after the company idled the facility. The Bloomberg Americas Iron/Steel Index soared 86% in 2016. Its biggest annual rise since 2003. (Bloomberg)

An Oregon business icon has passed. Bill Danner, the namesake of the Portland-based boot manufacturer died Christmas Eve. He was 97. He and his brother took over the struggling Danner Shoe Mfg. Company in 1945 from their father.  Bill Danner bought out his brother's stake selling the brand in 1983 to businessman Eric Merk. In 1994, LaCrosse Footwear bought Danner and Japanese ABC-Mart bought the businesses in 2012. Danner still operates out of its Portland headquarters. (OregonLive)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Happy New Year!

Markets are closed today to celebrate the holiday. But in the spirit of the new year let's reflect on last year and the lessons learned.

Markets have been on a tear sense the election. We are certainly due for a market correction. On average the market corrects at least 10% once or twice a year. But this does not mean the end of the world.

Stock markets started 2016 with about a 15% decline. It was the worst start to a year on record. But despite that record bad start to the year, markets gained double-digit returns for the entire year.

Lesson learned? Investors don't try to time the market, they believe in time in the market. We always say the market timers Hall of Fame is an empty room in Paducah Kentucky. It is almost certain that someone that sold in January 2016 and went to cash got back into the market later at a higher price. Not a good move.

Having a high-quality, well diversified portfolio is the answer to these corrections that inevitably come and go.

Make this your wealth building new year resolution. Don't try to be a market timer – be is smart investor and ride out the rough patches and be rewarded.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Consumer Confidence Index hit 113.7 in December. Its highest level since August 2001. The increase in consumer confidence was due solely to increasing expectations which hit a 13-year high. Consumers' assessment of current conditions declined slightly.  Those saying business conditions are "good" was essentially flat at 29.2%. and those saying they are "bad" moved up from 15.2% to 17.3%. Those saying jobs are "plentiful" dipped to 26.9% and those saying jobs are scarce climbed to 22.5%. (The Conference Board)

 

Consumer spending in the final days of the Christmas shopping season offset a slow start.  Early holiday promotions and expectations among consumers that deals would always be available took a toll. Spending over the Thanksgiving weekend in November fell 3.5% from a year ago.  Brick-and-mortar sales in the week ending 12/24 rose 6.5% year-over-year.  November through Christmas Eve retail sales were up 4%.  (Reuters)

 

We should expect this in our consumption culture. More than half of Americans say they don't like at least one of the gifts they got for Christmas. The average cost of that unwanted gift is about $31 or $9.5 billion in total. Only one-quarter exchange the items, 20% regift them, and fewer than 5% donate their them to charity. (CNBC)

 

S&P 500 is up 1 and the NASDAQ is up 11. MSCI International Index is flat.

Oil is down 25 cents at $53.64 a barrel.

Gold is up $2 at $1141 a Troy ounce.



Today marks the start the year's final week of trading.  To prove you can’t judge a book by its cover 2016 stock markets got off to its worst start in history, but is now on pace to end the year with double-digit gains. (CNBC)

 

During the last days of the holiday shopping season consumers shifted their buying to online sources in record numbers. The primary beneficiary of this trend appears to be Amazon. Slice Intelligence found early online purchases going to the e-commerce giant Amazon with a 36.9% share of the market. Best Buy was second with a 3.9% market share followed by Target, with a 2.9%, Wal-Mart, with a 2.7% and Macy's, with a 2.5%. (CNBC)

 

The Index of Consumer Sentiment hit 98.2 in December. That is up from 93.8 in November. That is its highest level since January 2004. The report says 18% of consumers mentioned an expected favorable impact of Trump's policies on the economy. That's twice as high as the prior peak of 9 percent in 1981 when Ronald Reagan took office. (University of Michigan)

 

S&P 500 is up 1 and the NASDAQ is up 5. MSCI International Index is down 0.35%.  Oil is up 21 cents at $53.23 a barrel. Gold is up $10 at $1143 a Troy ounce. 



The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated further from the elusive 20,000 milestone, losing its drive ahead of the Christmas break.  US stocks are trading without much direction as we get closer to Christmas on very low trading volume.
 
The U.S. economy grew faster than previously thought between July and September, its best performance in two years, buoyed by stronger consumer spending, the government reported Thursday.  The Commerce Department said the economy expanded at a seasonally adjusted 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter. This is above the government’s prior estimate of 3.2% due to upward revisions in consumer spending and business investment.
 
U.S. jobless claims jumped to the highest level since mid-June, the government said Thursday.  The Labor Department said jobless claims in the week ending Dec. 17 rose a seasonally adjusted 21,000 to 275,000. Economists had expected claims of 258,000.
 
Consumer spending growth in November slowed as incomes stagnated, and following several strong months of spending gains.  Personal incomes were unchanged for the month, and outlays rose 0.2%, the Commerce Department said Thursday.  The government also reported that inflation was unchanged in November. The median forecast among economists in a MarketWatch survey was for a 0.1% monthly increase.



U.S. stocks pulled back slightly on Wednesday as the “Santa rally” that has pushed equities to records stalled for the moment, keeping the Dow Jones Industrial Average just short of the 20,000 milestone.

Existing home sales were 15.4% higher than a year ago, and would have been even higher if there wasn’t somewhat of a housing shortage.  Currently there is only a 4 month supply of houses nationally at the current pace of sales, which is pushing prices higher.  The median price for a single family home nationally is $234,900 which is 6.8% higher than November of 2015.

FedEx posted profit on an adjusted basis of $2.80 per share for its second quarter, up from $2.58 a year earlier but below analysts forecast of $2.90/share. The company saw operating margins slide in its latest quarter, offsetting gains on expanding volumes tied to an e-commerce boom. Shares of the company, up 35% over the past 12 months, fell 3% to $193.49.

7-Eleven beats Google and Amazon to the first regular commercial drone delivery service in the U.S.  7-Eleven, the world’s largest convenience store chain, shared new numbers from its drone delivery experiment today. Seventy-seven customers in Reno, Nev., have now received items ordered from 7-Eleven delivered to their doorsteps via drone.  All 77 flights were from one store to a dozen select customers who live within a mile of the shop. 7-Eleven has partnered with the drone maker Flirtey for its delivery pilot.



Modest stock returns yesterday put the Dow within striking distance of the psychologically important milestone of 20,000, but meager trading and a lack of market-moving events, such as economic data, may provide little impetus for a breakout into the record books. Seasonally low trading volume can make stocks more susceptible to big swings.
Nike shares surged on news the athletic apparel giant topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter. Nike shares rose 3.5% to $53.61. The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of 50 cents a share on revenue of $8.18 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 43 cents a share on revenue of $8.09 billion.  Results would have been even better if it hadn’t been for the strong US Dollar.
2016 was a banner year for the US economy. Housing prices overall have now fully recovered from their lows during the financial crisis, consumer confidence is up and stocks are at all-time highs.  But Oregon stood out from the rest as the most economically improved state in 2016, according to new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.  The Beaver State edged out Utah with a 12.43 point jump in its coincident index, a metric showing the current state of economic activity within a particular area.

To satisfy antitrust concerns, Walgreens and Rite Aid will sell 865 Rite Aid stores to Fred’s Pharmacy for $950 million in cash.  “The agreement is being entered into to respond to concerns identified by the (Federal Trade Commission) in its review of the proposed acquisition of Rite Aid by Walgreens Boots Alliance, which was announced in October 2015.  Fred’s operates stores in 15 southeastern states. The deal makes sense for Fred’s to buy some Walgreens operations because the management team at Fred’s knows the Walgreens operations and its real estate quite well. Fred’s CFO Rick Hans was a top finance and real estate executive at Walgreens for more than 25 years and helped develop more than 250 Walgreens stores.

2017 may be the year to travel to Europe as the Euro approaches parity with the US Dollar.  The euro now stands at 1.03 vs the greenback.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones


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