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With 92% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported, third-quarter earnings growth is tracking to an impressive 28.1% year-over-year increase, the highest since Q4 2010. Revenue results have also been very good, supported by strong economic growth. S&P 500 revenue has increased 8.5% year over year. (LPL)

 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies rose for the 8th straight week to 442.1 million barrels. October’s core US CPI reading came in at 2.1% Year-over-Year, aided by moderate housing price pressures from rentals. More significant price changes were concentrated in volatile categories such as energy and food. (GS)

 

The IRS announced tax code parameters for 2019, implementing a new method for making inflation adjustments, resulting in higher tax payments, and government revenue, over time. The move erodes some of the benefits for the Trump tax cut. (WSJ)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



It may seem extreme, but it is about average. Last Thursday the S&P 500 gained more than 1%, making it the 50th time so far in 2018 that the index has gained or lost at least 1%. This is well above the historically calm 2017, in which the S&P 500 moved 1% only eight times. On average, the S&P 500 has moved 1% about 50 times each year since 1950. (LPL)

 

Ride-hailing service Uber's losses ticked up to nearly $1 billion during the third quarter and annualized growth is continuing to slow, according to the private company's self-reported financials for Q3. (CNBC)

 

Columbia Helicopters will retain its Aurora headquarters and all its 850 employees following its sale to the Bristow Group, based in Texas. Bristow paid $560 million, $492 million in cash and the remainder in stock. (Oregon Live)

 

Oregon State graduate Pat Egan will become chief executive officer of Warren Buffett’s See’s Candies in 2019 after working at a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. utility, NV Energy. He will be only the third CEO since Berkshire acquired See’s more than 40 years ago. (Bloomberg)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.
 



Retail sales reverse two-month slide. Retail sales rose 0.8% in October. The U.S. consumer is the healthiest in years, aided by fiscal stimulus and modestly accelerating wages, and strong consumer demand will drive output going forward. (LPL)

 

Tensions are heating up over U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed plan for the country's exit from the European Union. European stocks have dropped 1% over the past two days, and global equities could endure volatility amid Brexit-related headlines. (LPL)

 

Trade and auto disruptions weighed on the German economy. The German economy contracted during Q3 as gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk by 0.2%. Weak auto sales were largely to blame. (LPL)

 

Japan's economy was dragged down by temporary factors, as GDP slipped 1.2% during Q3. Weather disruptions were mostly to blame, including an earthquake, typhoons, and torrential rain. (LPL)

 

Levi Strauss plans IPO that values company at up to $5 billion. The 145-year-old American icon is looking to raise between $600 million and $800 million. (CNBC)

 

The S&P 500 is down 15 and the NASDAQ is down 64. MSCI International index is lower.

Oil is up 97 cents at $57.41 a barrel.

Gold is up $2 at $1217 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.          



The S&P 500 closed down yesterday, its fifth straight day of losses. It's now in the red for the month of November. 

Does market volatility seem more elevated than you are used to? Through the first half of 2018, the market saw 39 days in which it experienced a 1%+ move—more than double the number of days for all of 2017. (Capital 360)

 

With 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, S&P 500 Index profit growth is tracking to an impressive 27.9% year-over-year increase, the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2010. Sales growth is tracking to an 8.5% year-over-year increase. The strong top line performance, clearly boosted by a strong U.S. economy, is particularly impressive given there is no direct benefit from the lower corporate tax rate. (FactSet).

 

Hazelnut growers in Oregon were anticipating harvesting 52,000 tons of hazelnuts but instead processors say they are looking at between 46,000 to 48,000 tons, which is higher than last year's 32,000 tons and still a record. Hazelnut acreage has doubled in Oregon over the past decade, up to 72,353 acres. (Oregon Live) 

 

Chick-fil-A will begin delivering from more than 1,100 of its restaurants around the United States. (USA Today)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



Stocks pause after back-to-back weekly gains. After rebounding from October's volatility spike over the past two weeks, investors used negative headlines tied to a few bellwether firms in the U.S., along with political tensions in Europe and Washington as reasons to take some gains off the table. (LPL)

 

Emerging markets equities have started to show some signs of life, having bounced nicely off of the 10/29 lows (+6.8%, slightly ahead of the S&P 500 Index). (LPL)

 

Oil struggling after plunging 7 percent yesterday, with surging supply and perceived falling demand. WTI has lost over a quarter of its value since early October. (Reuters)

 

Small business owners delivered another near record month of optimism in October. The index shed a modest 0.5 points for a 107.4 reading. Meanwhile, the percent of owners with one or more unfilled job openings was at a 45-year, all-time high level. (NFIB)

 

Kellogg is selling its Keebler, Famous Amos and fruit snacks businesses. It is consolidating its morning foods, snacks and frozen foods business units.  (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



The number of women-owned businesses is on the rise. Four in 10 companies in the U.S. are now majority-owned, operated, and controlled by women, according to CNBC.

 

The Wall Street Journal reported that US companies are raising prices on their products after years of low inflation. Food makers, manufacturers, and airlines are among the firms that have announced price increases.

 

According to the Stanford Center on Longevity one-third of baby boomers had no money saved in retirement plans in 2014, when they were on average 58 years old. Among boomers with positive balances, the median savings was around $200,000.

 

One-third of homeowners over the age of 65 were still paying off a mortgage in 2012, compared with less than a quarter of people in 1998 — and the median amount they owed nearly doubled to $82,000 from $44,000. (Stanford Center)

 

The number of people aged 60 and older with student debt quadrupled between 2005 and 2015, to 2.8 million from 700,000. (Stanford Center)


With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 5 percent for the week to the lowest level in two years. Purchase applications were 0.2 percent lower than a year ago. Mortgage applications to refinance fell 3 percent last week and are 33 percent lower than a year ago.

 

Trump critic and Wall Street foe, Rep. Maxine Waters, will take control of the House's financial services committee. She has been the top Democrat on the banking panel since Barney Frank retired in 2013. (CNBC)

 

Kraft Heinz is selling its Canadian natural cheese unit to Italy's Parmalat for $1.23 billion. (CNBC)

 

The Girl Scouts has filed a trademark infringement lawsuit against the Boy Scouts of America after the Boy Scouts decided to drop "Boy" from its namesake program and start welcoming older girls. The Girl Scouts, founded in 1912, are trying to avert an erosion of its brand and membership. (CNBC)

 

The S&P 500 is down 10 and the NASDAQ is down 54. MSCI International index is lower.

Oil is down 92 cents at $59.75 a barrel.

Gold is down $7 at $1218 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                     



Stocks end sharply higher yesterday, following closely watched midterm elections that saw Democrats take control of the House and Republicans retain their hold on the Senate.  The surge in stocks marks the best post-midterm election rally for the S&P 500 and Dow in more than three decades.

 

Shares of industrial stocks including 3M and Caterpillar rose as some investors viewed the split Congress as a potential mitigator to Trump’s aggressive trade policies.  Shares of big tech companies are also climbing as the specter of regulatory crackdowns against giants including Amazon and Apple fizzled with a divided Congress.

 

The number of job openings in the U.S. fell in September just a month after setting an all-time high, but companies are still scrambling to find workers and offering higher pay and benefits to attract them.  Job openings slipped to 7 million on the last day of September from a record 7.3 million in August.  Even after the decline, job openings still exceed the 6.1 million Americans officially classified as unemployed.



Earnings growth surpasses prior two quarters. With about 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings growth is tracking to a 27.1% year-over-year increase, up from 25.2% last week and highest since Q4 2010. Meanwhile earnings expectations have held up well. Despite tariffs, S&P 500 earnings estimates for the next 12 months have only been reduced by 0.4% since October 1, less than the average earnings season decline. (LPL)

 

Data continue to show Chinese economy feeling tariff heat. The Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index showed activity in October fell to 50.1. Of particular interest was the sub-index of new business, which fell to its lowest level since 2008. All of which suggest the U.S. may have the upper hand as negotiations between President Trump and the President of China are poised to officially begin at the G20 summit later this month.

 

U.S. services sector still on solid footing. ISM's October non-manufacturing index came in at 60.3. Business activity and employment components were down month over month, but new orders were little changed overall. 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



U.S. stocks finished yesterday’s trading session mostly higher but weakness in the technology and internet-relate sectors limited an advance in the broader market. 

 

Shares of Apple extended their post-earnings slide yesterday, after a report suggested iPhone XR demand might be falling short of expectations.  Apple has curbed plans for additional iPhone XR production lines, while instructing assemblers to build more of the older iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus models than the company had originally ordered.  The company has “signaled disappointing demand for the new iPhone XR.


The home improvement retailer Lowe's said it will close 20 underperforming stores in the U.S. and 31 locations in Canada, as part of a strategic reassessment. The company said most employees at the stores closing will be offered similar jobs at a nearby store, as most of the stores being closed are within 10 miles of another store. 

 

And the IRS said late last week that Americans will be able to contribute more in their retirement plans in 2019.  Retirement plans like 401k’s, 403b’s, and IRA’s will have higher contribution maximums starting in 2019.



The S&P 500 increased 1% last Thursday, its third straight gain of 1% or more, the first such streak since June 2016. That streak ended Friday as markets closed down. The S&P 500 hasn't been up 1% on 4 consecutive days since 1982. (LPL)
 
Europe continues to struggle to produce inflation. Core consumer prices (ex. food and energy) rose just 1.1% in October in the Eurozone on a year-over-year basis. Considering the amount of time the Eurozone has employed highly accommodative monetary policy, it is surprising inflation has stayed this stubbornly low. Low inflation and low interest rates in Europe reflect continued lackluster economic growth. (LPL)
 
According to Capital One’s Fall 2018 Small Business Growth Index, the “majority of small business owners are optimistic and satisfied with the current small business environment, but at the same time are facing a number of challenges and are concerned about how new governmental policies will a?ect them.” 
 
This will make Mrs. Reinhart happy with just 50 days till Christmas Starbucks is now offering six holiday beverages. This comes about a week earlier than previous years.
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                  
 



The US Department of Labor says the economy added 250,000 new jobs in October. The unemployment rate stands at 3.7%. 

 

Despite a strong finish to October with a Halloween rally, the S&P 500 suffered its worst month in over seven years with a 6.9% decline. In addition to snapping its 6-month win streak, the S&P 500 fell 16 days for the month, tying the most down days for any month since October 2008. But as has been the case virtually all year, U.S. equities held up better than their overseas counterparts. For the month, the MSCI EAFE Index fell 7.9%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index slid 8.7%. A strong dollar, weaker economic growth, and political risk, particularly in Italy, weighed on European equities, while trade tensions and related weaker economic data dragged broad EM equities including China lower. (LPL)

 

U.S. productivity grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter. It marks a slowdown from the previous quarter but is still better than the weak gains seen for most of this nine-year expansion. Labor costs accelerated but still remained at a low level. (CNBC)

 

Don’t forget to join us this weekend on this great station for Financial Focus Radio. Saturday at 10am and Sunday at 1pm

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



Oregon is losing another publicly held company from the State. Electro Scientific Industries, has sold to MKS Instruments of Massachusetts for $1 billion in cash. The $30-a-share price is a little more than double ESI's closing stock price Monday. ESI employees about 220 personal in Oregon.  ESI reported sales in its fiscal second quarter were $85.9 million, up from $71.0 million a year ago. (PBJ)

 

 ADP report hints to strong payrolls gain. U.S. jobs grew 227,000 last month, the strongest increase since February. (LPL)

 

Labor costs increase. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) grew 0.8% in the third quarter. Year-over-year, the ECI rose 2.8% through last quarter, its largest increase of the cycle. Wages represent up to 70% of business costs. (LPL) 

 

China manufacturing hits two-year low. China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, is hovering just above the 50.0 threshold dividing economic expansion and contraction. New export orders fell for a fifth straight month due to tariffs implemented earlier this year. The continued slowdown comes despite government efforts to shore up growth, buoy sentiment, and boost liquidity. (LPL) 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



Happy Halloween. It is the last trading day of what is been a very volatile October. October 2018 is on pace to be the biggest down month in a decade. (CNBC)  

 

While it has been a rough October for equities, there is a piece of good news for investors: During midterm years, the S&P 500 has gained from the October lows until the end of the year every single year since World War II. That is 18 out of 18 years, with an average gain of 10.6%. (LPL)

 

Earnings results better than headlines suggest. With nearly half of the S&P 500 constituents having reported third quarter results, the numbers have been excellent overall. According to Thomson Reuters, 78% of companies have exceeded consensus earnings estimates, putting the index on track for a 25.2% year-over-year increase in earnings. Resilient earnings estimates amid the stock market decline have left the S&P 500 valued at roughly 15 times next 12 months estimates, similar to the attractive levels reached during the late 2015-early 2016 market correction. (LPL)


Rate hike in December still likely, but odds falling. Fed fund futures currently show investors expect the Fed to increase short-term interest rates when it meets in December. No hike expected at November meeting. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



Markets were on a wild ride yesterday as they swung more than 2% intraday. The Dow Jones industrial moved almost 1000 points from its high to its low of the day. Remember volatility is normal even though October has really been extraordinary in its ups and downs. Well diversified long-term investors should not be concerned. (Yahoo Finance)

 

The once great General Electric is under more pressure. The integrated company slashed its dividend to one cent per share. (SeekingAlpha)

 

Coca-Cola’s diet soda sales grew by double digits last year boosting the company’s profit on the bottom line. Increased sales were led by the new Coca-Cola Zero Sugar brand. (CNBC)

 

Just 56 days till Christmas and Walmart, is expecting its best Christmas shopping season ever. The company will be rolling out the “check out with me” option at all stores on Black Friday. This new mobile app will also include a store map. For you thrifty shoppers Walmart won’t be matching Target to give free two day shipping with no minimum purchase required. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



The Wall Street roller coaster is selling tickets again today as U.S. stock index futures post steep declines after a selloff in Asia and Europe. It follows a strong session for the three major U.S. indices, though global stocks are still on track to record their worst weekly losing streak in five years. The latest snapshot of the American economy has just been released, annualized 3rd Quarter growth came in at 3.5%, beating expectations. That puts GDP on track for its best yearly performance since 2005, but marks a falloff from the white-hot 4.2% growth rate recorded in Q2. (SA)

 

FAANG stocks and other tech shares are under pressure this morning following disappointing quarterly reports from Amazon and Alphabet.  While revenue growth soared at its cloud unit, Amazon's revenue and Q4 holiday season outlook fell short of expectations. Google also beat on earnings, but sales came up short, while CEO Sundar Pichai confirmed 48 employees were terminated over the past two years for sexual misconduct. (SA)

 

China's currency weakened to its lowest level in a decade on Friday, against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical tension and uncertainty over the country's trade impasse with the US.  Pressure from ongoing trade tension with the US is weighing on the renminbi, as any reduction in demand for Chinese goods would shrink appetite for the currency. (FT)

 

S&P 500 futures are down 31, and NASDAQ futures are down 147. The MSCI international index is down 1/3 of a %.  

Oil is down $.81 at $66.52 a barrel.

Gold is up $4 at $1236 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.



Investor sentiment shifted during the European trading day thanks, in part, to upbeat forecasts for fourth-quarter demand from German carmaker Daimler, and strong earnings from the third quarter from French peer Peugeot. US futures have also been buoyed by Twitter, which announced strong earnings in a pre-market report.  The volatility gripping markets comes just ahead of Amazon and Google's parent Alphabet announcing results after the closing bell today, following on from a string of disappointments from the semiconductor sector. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is on track to post its weakest monthly performance since October 2008, while the S&P 500 has more than wiped out all of this year's gains. (FT)

 

Despite the carnage, earnings news has still been resoundingly positive.  81% of S&P 500 companies have beat on EPS, and 63% have beat on revenue.  We're still on track for 22% year-on-year earnings growth, and 7.5% growth on the top line.  This isn't a prediction, but for those believers in the "peak earnings" narrative, the average US recession doesn't occur for 4 years until after peak earnings. Tesla, Merck, Microsoft, Conoco Phillips, and Visa all higher on earnings beats. (Thomson Reuters)

 

The European Central Bank has signaled that market turmoil and mounting risks to the eurozone economy will not sway policymakers from withdrawing one of the most important strands of their crisis-era stimulus, after Mario Draghi confirmed plans to halt the expansion of its quantitative easing program by the end of this year.  Euro is higher on the news, a welcome sign for US multinationals.  (FT)

 

S&P 500 futures are up 20, and NASDAQ futures are up 88. The MSCI international index is down 1/3 of a percent.  

Oil is up $.43 at $67.25 a barrel.

Gold is up $4 at $1235 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.



Boeing shares are rising this morning as the company reported strong third-quarter earnings on the back of a robust defense business and more efficient commercial aircraft production. The company also raised its 2018 earnings forecast, in what looks to be a record year for revenue.  The aerospace giant reported adjusted earnings of $3.58 a share, topping Wall Street expectations by 11 cents. Third quarter revenue came in at $25.15 billion, which was over $1 billion more than analysts' forecast. (CNBC)

 

Apple is planning to launch its upcoming TV subscription service in more than 100 countries, pushing into more markets of competitors Netflix and Amazon. The service could debut in the U.S. early next year, with the global rollout coming in the following months, according to The Information. Apple device owners will get free access to the company's original programs.  (SA)

 

October is famed for sudden eruptions of equity woe, but the current version is playing out in slow-motion style. Japan is down almost 9 per cent and China off 7.5 per cent, while Europe's Stoxx 600 index has slid 7.6 per cent and today sits at its lowest point since late 2016. In the US, the S&P 500 is not that far from erasing its gains for the year, while global equities are on course for their worst month since May 2012, when fears of a global slowdown and the eurozone debt crisis delivered a punch across the jaws of investors. (FT)

 

S&P 500 futures are down 4, and NASDAQ futures are up 3. The MSCI international index is up less than a 1/10 of a%.

Oil is up $.25 at $66.68 a barrel.

Gold is down $7 at $1230 a Troy ounce.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.

 



Well it's a busy morning for earnings - shares of 3M fell more than 5% in premarket trading after its quarterly earnings and revenue missed expectations.  The company also trimmed its full year outlook.  Caterpillar also dropped more than 5% following the release of its results.  Higher input and freight costs contributed to the disappointing numbers, the stock is now down almost 16% for the month. (CNBC)

 

All in all, earnings season has actually been quite positive so far.  This is the busiest week of the earnings season, with more than 150 members of the S&p500 set to report.  Of the companies that have reported thus far, 80% have topped analyst estimates. 

 

On the positive side of the ledger, Lockheed Martin raised full-year earnings guidance as it reported stronger than expected third-quarter numbers, partly due to rising production of the F-35 fighter plane.  United Technologies raised its full-year earnings guidance for the third time this year as it reported higher than expected third-quarter earnings on strong aircraft and equipment demand.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.



Italy said on Monday its plans for a sharp increase in public spending would not threaten the EU's financial stability, in its formal response to Brussels' strong criticism of its budget plans.  The economy minister, insisted the budget - which defies EU fiscal rules - was needed to restart growth in the eurozone's third-largest economy after a decade of economic stagnation.  Yields on Italian debt fell sharply overnight as Moody's left the country's credit rating above "junk" status. (FT).  

The Shanghai Composite closed up 4.1%, on track for its best day since March 2016, following a Friday jump spurred by signals of government support in the wake weaker quarterly growth figures. President Xi further vowed "unwavering" support for non-state firms over the weekend, while the country's stock exchanges committed to help manage share-pledge risks and the government released a plan to cut personal income taxes. (SA)

 

Finally, in local news, price reductions are becoming more common for single-family homes in Bend.  The average number of list-price reductions jumped 18% from 706 per quarter in 2017 to 833 per quarter through the third quarter this year, according to Central Oregon Association of Realtors data.  (Bulletin)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.
 



Target is adding space to its toy business for the holiday season, as it tries to win more toy sales after Toys R Us went out of business earlier this year. (CNBC)

 

US industrial production grew by 0.3% in September. An increase in mining sector activity-which includes oil and natural gas extraction-which has been trending up with oil prices since 2015, helped U.S. industry output increase for a fourth straight month in September. Manufacturing output, the largest component of the index, continued to expand last month also rose for a fourth straight month. (LPL)

 

Housing starts for September that came in modestly below analyst forecasts and prior month figures. Hurricane Florence is credited with disrupting activity in the Southeast, which accounts for about half of starts and fell 13.7% from the prior month; expect Hurricane Michael to impact next month's report. On the positive side, permits for single-family homes were up 2.9% month over month, the biggest gain in a year, suggesting builders have a steady pipeline that could contribute to growth in the fourth quarter as consumer demand, helped by a solid job market and lower taxes, as well as post-storm rebuilding, overshadows headwinds including rising mortgage rates and property prices. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



Job openings hit a record 7.14 million in August, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This indicates companies could face inflationary pressures ahead with a tight labor market. The total number of hires also reached a new record of 5.78 million. Openings dwarfed the total level of workers looking for jobs, which stood at 6.23 million for that month and fell to 5.96 million in September.

 

The National Association of Home Builders index rose one point in October to 68. Anything above 50 is considered positive. The index was unchanged from October 2017. This comes as lumber prices are falling driving down the cost of building a home.

 

Walmart has purchased online lingerie retailer Bare Necessities for an undisclosed amount. (CNBC)

 

A record net 37 percent of biz owners reported raising overall compensation in hopes of hiring and retaining employees in the tight labor market. This surpasses the previous record of a new 35 percent in May 2018. Competition for workers is pushing up compensation as there are more job openings than job seekers. (NFIB)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



The U.S. Postal Service has proposed a 9 to 12 percent increase in fees for the shipping service used by Amazon (CNBC). 

 

Weakness in restaurant receipts weighed on retail sales last month, which fell 0.1% from August, well below consensus estimates for a 0.6% increase. However, the 1.8% drop in consumer spending at restaurants may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence, and broad strength across most other categories suggests consumption remains strong. Also, retail control-group sales, which are used to calculate gross domestic product, and exclude food services, auto dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations, topped estimates with a 0.5% rise month over month. (LPL)

 

Earnings season kicked off Friday. S&P 500 Index companies are expected to report their ninth consecutive increase in profits and third consecutive quarter with an increase of over 20%. We expect strong earnings gains to be driven mostly by solid economic growth, particularly manufacturing, and tax cuts. In addition, higher oil prices should give energy sector profits a boost and the interest rate environment has gotten better for financial companies. This week, 54 S&P 500 companies will report quarterly results.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



For retail investors who are rattled by the upcoming midterm elections. Since 1946, a year after every single midterm election the S&P 500 has been higher. That is 18 for 18. (LPL)

 

Banks kicked off their third-quarter earnings season Friday with mostly well-received results. Loan demand outside of housing is healthy, while consumer credit trends (charge-offs and provisions for loan losses) were solid. (LPL)

 

The S&P 500 lost 5.3% over the two day selloff last week, extending its losing streak to six days. August 2015, Brexit, and early February 2018 had worse two-day stretches. Along the way, the S&P 500 closed beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time in six months. 

 

Amazon will hire 2,000 people in Portland area this fall as it opens new warehouses and delivery centers. 
(Oregonian)

 

Just 75 days till Christmas and USA Today says the “holiday hiring season is in full swing,” noting retailers expect “to hire between 585,000 and 650,000 temporary workers this holiday season, up from last year’s 582,500.” Amazon expects to hire more than 100,000 seasonal employees across the country during the holiday.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



October is known for spectacular crashes (1929, 1987, and 2008), but in reality it's about average in terms of returns. What it really should be known for is volatility. Incredibly, no month has seen more 1% changes (up or down) than the month of October for the S&P 500 going back to 1950. The economy is in excellent shape. By historical standards, interest rates are still fairly low. Pullbacks are normal. Stocks have three to four pullbacks each year (5-10% drops) and at least one 10-20% correction. (LPL)

 

The Consumer Price Index came in weaker than expected. The data show prices rose 2.3% in September vs. the year-ago period, below the 2.7% figure in the prior month. (LPL)

 

International Paper is increasing its dividend by 5.3%. That brings it to $0.50 per share. (CNBC)

The end may be near. Sears has contacted banks in an attempt to arrange financing to allow it to file for bankruptcy after 125 years in business. (CNBC).

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



After reaching new record highs just a week ago, markets are selling off hard. Let’s put this in perspective yesterday markets were down about 3% and are down 4% from their all-time highs. While it is been a swift move downward it should not be unexpected. As I reported last month the S&P 500 went over 3 trading months without a 1% move either up or down. That is now in the past.

 

Volatility is a normal and expected part of the market. We do not view this market turn down as the beginning of the end, but rather a normal anticipated and healthy correction in the market. You just have to look back to last January to see how markets react in a rising interest rate environment. 

 

If you have a well diversified portfolio of high quality stocks and bonds this recent market action should give you no concern.

 

September saw the Producer Price Index-a measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services-increase by 0.2% month over month. Despite the recent softness, prices at the producer level have been ticking higher since early-2016, though most of the increases have been absorbed by businesses instead of being passed along to consumers thus far. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



After returning from the Columbus Day holiday, bond traders bid up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note above 3.25%, a level not seen since 2011. Though higher interest rates tend to weigh on stocks, on the positive side, higher yields benefit savers, who have had significant difficulty finding places to park cash. Also, stocks haven't historically been negatively impacted by higher rates until the 10-year reaches ~5%. (LPL)

 

Though it ticked lower from August's record high, at 107.9, the NFIB Small Business Index came in at its third-highest level in the survey's 45-year history and is the longest streak of small business optimism in history, helped by the recent tax cuts and fiscal policy changes. Among the highlights, a record percentage of small business owners reported raising compensation, and data showed a pickup in investment spending and expectations for higher sales volumes. (LPL)

 

The Kaiser Family Foundation released report found “insurers in the individual health insurance market performed better financially in the first six months of 2018 than they have in all of the years of the Affordable Care Act.”

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



The Nobel economics prize was awarded to Americans William Nordhaus and Paul Romer for transforming our understanding of long-term growth factors, including climate and technology changes. (NY Times)

 

Debra Perelman has been appointed the first female Chief Executive Officer of Revlon. Perelman, 44, has worked at Revlon for 20 years. Her father owns about 87% of Revlon. (CNN)

 

Chinese stocks plunged and the yuan fell nearly 1% versus the dollar after markets reopened following a week off. The slide came despite the central bank cutting the required reserve ratio for the fourth time this year to boost growth; lenders may reduce the amount of cash they hold by 1% beginning October 15th. It's still not clear if the extra liquidity can put a floor under the market, which is down more than 15.0% year to date. (LPL)

 

The XHB, the popular homebuilders-tracking ETF, just posted its longest losing streak ever, falling for 13 consecutive sessions amid a breakout in U.S. Treasury yields that injected new risk into the rate-sensitive group. The XHB has tumbled 9 percent in just one month, entering into a bear market. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



It is a question of pay for performance or pay by the hour. Amazon cut stock options incentive-based bonuses for employees when it raised its minimum wage to $15 per hour, but workers will be better compensated under the new policy. 350,000 employees, including 100,000 seasonal workers, will have their hourly pay rate raised to $15 per hour. (FBN)

 

Barnes & Noble is looking to sell their business after many people have approached them with interest. (CNBC)

 

Yamhill County winery, Domaine Serene Vineyards and Winery has filed a lawsuit against Kansas City whiskey maker J. Rieger & Co. to stop using the brand name "Monogram".  The winery claims it secured its rights to be the sole user of Monogram in its industry after it registered the name with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office in 2006. (Oregonian)

 

Costco reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.36 on $44.41 billion in revenue, slightly higher than expected.  (Yahoo)

 

A rare 60-year-old Macallan whisky fetched $1.1 million at an auction last week. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



The Department of Labor says the US economy added 137,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, lowest level since December 1969.

 

Dutch Bros Coffee will add 500 more coffee stands over the next five years, with funds gained after selling a minority stake two private equity firm. Founded in Grants Pass in 1992, Dutch Bros now has 300 locations in seven states. (Oregonian)

 

When I was younger they were the leader of the pack. Now there a penny stock. Sears share price has fell below $1 for the first time in the company's history. Sears has lost $11.7 billion since 2010, its last profitable year, and sales have plunged 60% in that time. It has fewer than 900 stores, down from a combined 3,500 US stores when Sears and Kmart merged in 2005. (Money)

 

The fast food chain Burgerville has discovered they are part of a security data breach. Customer using debit or charge card between September 2017 and 2018 are at risk. The company first learned of the data breach on August 22 from the FBI. (AP)

 

Join us this weekend for Financial focus with you when we will discuss “why is my account trailing in the markets?”

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.     



US Stocks rose slightly yesterday as investors got a slew of good economic data about the labor market and the non-manufacturing sector.
 
The payroll company ADP reported that the private sector in the US soared in September as employers added 230,000 jobs in which is the most in any month since February.  The gains were well above what economists had expected.
 
The institute for supply management survey of non-manufacturing firms climbed to a 21 year high, it's highest level in this current 9 year expansion.  The survey of business executives pointed to the strongest US growth last month in more than 2 decades.  The biggest challenge for businesses right now is finding skilled workers.
 
With all of the good economic data bonds across the yield curve sold off as the 10 year Treasury Note yield reached it's highest level since 2011 and the 30 year reached it's highest yield since 2014.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones
 



US Stocks as measured by the S&P 500 traded slightly lower yesterday on lingering trade war worries.

Shares of Pepsi gained 0.5% in heaving trading, after the beverage and snack giant reported fiscal third-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations.  However, the company cut their full years EPS outlook for the rest of the year.

Shares of Amazon fell 1.7% after the giant online retailer said it was raising its minimum wage to $15 an hour for all U.S. employees, effective Nov. 1.

According to the personal-finance website WalletHub, Bend is the fourth-fastest growing city in the U.S. this year, based on a study that looked at a variety of factors.  Bend ranks 4th in growth for all US cities and is the 2nd fastest growing small city in the US behind Ft Myers FL.

Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones



US Stocks traded higher on the first day of the 4th quarter after the U.S. and Canada reached an 11th-hour deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement.  This brings Canada into a new trilateral agreement that Mexico had agreed to weeks ago.

 

General Electric it has replaced its chief executive, after just over a year in the role, and investors were so ecstatic they shrugged off a profit warning and a plan to take an impairment charge of close to $23 billion.  GE’s stock gained 7% on the news in very active trading.

 

Shares of Tesla Motors soared yesterday as a surprise settlement with the SEC over the weekend allowing the companies outspoken CEO Elon Musk to retain his CEO role.  The stock got another boost from a report that Musk told employees that the company was “very close” to turning a profit.  Tesla shares jumped more than 16% on the news.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones


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US Stocks ended last week lower but had the best performing quarter since the 4th quarter of 2013, with the S&P 500 gaining 7% in the 3rd quarter.
 
Geopolitical events and the start of earnings season will drive trading in the week ahead.  Italy's anti-establishment government significantly widened its budget deficit for the next year, a move the will certainly anger the European Union.
 
American Homeowners now have a record $6 Trillion in equity in their homes, a figure boosted by surging home prices and a trend of people staying in their homes longer.  That $6 Trillion number is 21% higher than the pre-financial crisis peak in 2006.
 
California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill yesterday mandating that all publicly traded companies with headquarters in California must have at least one woman on their board of directors by the end of the year.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones  



New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 4.5% in August. Growth last month matched the strongest pace in a year. However, orders excluding transportation reflect a slowdown in manufacturing as escalating trade anxieties increasingly weigh on U.S. firms. Excluding transportation, durable goods rose 0.1% in the month. Capital expenditures, measured by new nondefense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and parts), declined for the first time since March. Shipments of these capital goods, which contribute directly to gross domestic product, grew 0.1%.  Unfilled orders ticked up to a record $1.18 billion amid growing tariff-induced supply chain disruptions. (LPL)

 

Amazon is expanding its grocery delivery service from Whole Foods stores to more cities across the U.S. The service is available in Milwaukee, Omaha, Detroit, Jacksonville, Madison, Orlando, St. Louis, Ann Arbor, Tampa and Tulsa. (CNBC)

 

Is this like rats leaving a sinking ship? J.C. Penney CFO Jeffrey Davis is resigning to pursue a new opportunity, after less than a year and a half on the job. (CNBC)

 

Join us on this great station this weekend for Financial Focus Radio, the truth and wealth building. Check out the website financialfocusradio.com for day and time.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.   



If you think markets have been relatively calm lately you are right. The S&P 500 Index has now gone 64 consecutive days without a 1% change either up or down, the fourth-longest streak since 1990.  (LPL)

 

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3 percent for the week and were 4 percent higher on the year.  Applications to refinance a home loan increased 3 percent for the week and are 34.5 percent lower than one year ago.

 

Retailers Could Hire Over 700,000 Seasonal Workers This Holiday Season. Retailers are expected to hire more than 700,000 seasonal workers for the December holidays. The most since 2015, according to a Challenger Gray Christmas analysis of federal jobs data. 

 

Business Insider reported that with the holiday season approaching, “retailers are scrambling to figure out how to win over workers.” Target, which “is seeking 120,000 workers this season, up by 20% from the year before,” is offering “all new hires, including part-time seasonal workers...a $12-per-hour minimum wage.” JCPenney is offering paid time off and even offering 401(k) benefits for some, Kohl’s is giving seasonal workers a 35 percent discount on purchases. 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



Consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2000. The Consumer Confidence Index reached 138.4 according to the Conference Board. 

 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose for a sixth straight day yesterday, its longest streak of gains since May, to 3.10%. Investors around the world have pivoted back into risky assets recently, boosting the MSCI All-Country World Index to its second straight weekly gain last week (and fourth in five weeks). The 10-year yield's resilience is especially impressive given it's trading a few basis points away from a 7-year high. (LPL)

 

Home prices continued to rise at a slower pace in July. Prices have been increasing at a slower rate since April. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index reported a 6% annual gain in July, down from 6.2% in the previous month. 

 

Inspire Brands is buying drive-in fast-food chain Sonic for  $2.3 billion in cash including assumption of debt. Inspire already owns more than 4,700 Arby's, Buffalo Wild Wings and Rusty Taco restaurants. Arby's purchased Buffalo Wild Wings in November 2017. Sonic will become a privately-held subsidiary of Inspire Brands and will continue to operate as an independent brand. (CNBC) 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.      



The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) monetary policy meeting is the highlight of this week, culminating in a policy decision and a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. An interest rate hike later this week is almost a foregone conclusion, so investors will likely focus more on the Fed's projections for future policy and economic growth. (LPL)

 

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.4% in August and 6.4% year over year. The LEI, which is a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers' new orders, stock prices, and weekly unemployment claims), shows that the economic expansion is still intact and healthy. The LEI also has turned negative year over year before every economic recession dating back to the 1970s. (LPL)

 

Walmart is warning that new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports may prompt the retailer to raise prices. (Reuters)

McDonald's raised its quarterly dividend to $1.16 per share from $1.01, a rise of 15 percent. The restaurant chain has now increased its dividend for 42 straight years. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



The Dow finally joined its index peers in record territory, rising nearly 1% Thursday to close at a fresh record high after a 237-day drought. The Dow has lagged the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 this year amid escalating trade tensions, which have weighed on shares of larger, multinational U.S. companies. The S&P 500 also closed at a record high Friday, its sixth in the last month.(LPL)

 

Existing home sales remained unchanged at 5.34 million in August, the lowest level since March 2016. Year over year, existing home sales fell 1.5%, the sixth straight decline for the data. Existing home sales, which account for 85-90% of total home sales, are a prime signal of a cooling U.S. housing market, an area of the economy that still hasn't fully recovered since the financial crisis. Housing is an important part of output, accounting for approximately 15% of gross domestic product if you include the money spent on construction, maintenance, and rent. (LPL)

 

Embattled Wells Fargo is slashing its workforce by five to ten percent over the next three years, as the bank aims to reduce costs by $4 billion by 2020. Wells Fargo currently employs around 264,500 workers. (CNBC)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.  



Amazon is considering opening 3,000 of its cashierless stores by 2021 according to Bloomberg. It currently has three locations — known as Amazon Go — open in Seattle. It just opened a new location in Chicago.

 

Higher risk appetite has boosted longer-term yields as investors pivot to stocks from government bonds (leading to lower Treasury prices and higher yields). The 10-year yield has closed above 3% for three straight days for just the second time since July 2011. The 10-year yield is also close to crossing its seven-year closing high. (LPL)

 

USA Today reported, “Americans’ incomes are rising, and a declining share of households are mired in poverty” in “a sign that the healthy economy is lifting Americans across the financial spectrum.” Median US household income rose 1.8 percent to an all-time high of $61,372, according to the Census Bureau. 

 

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its global growth forecast to 3.7% through the end of 2019, down from its March projection of 3.9%. The OECD highlighted increasing downside risks to the global economy, including narrowing growth in major global economies and higher uncertainty around monetary policy normalization and trade restrictions. (LPL)

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



Inconsistent housing recovery evident in August data. Housing starts, or the number of new housing units that have started construction, grew 9.2% in August. On the other hand, building permits declined 5.7% month over month, their biggest slide since February 2017. The NAHB homebuilders' sentiment index remained unchanged at a 10-month low in August. The housing recovery continues to flash conflicting signs, even as consumer sentiment has climbed in other areas of the economy. Housing is an important part of output, accounting for approximately 15% of gross domestic product. (LPL) 

 

After nearly a decade of little to no increases in Social Security benefits, the Senior Citizens League, a senior advocacy organization, forecasts benefits will jump by 2.8 percent in 2019 – the largest increase in seven years. That would boost the average beneficiary’s check by $39 per month. The cost of living adjustment was 2 percent in 2018.

 

Avon Products (AVP) was recently approached by Brazilian cosmetics company Natura Cosmeticos about a possible takeover, according to sources quoted by Dow Jones.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      



A record-low 12% of Americans currently cite some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the U.S., down from 17% last month and one percentage point below the previous low of 13% recorded in May 1999. Mentions of the economy as the top problem reached 86% in February 2009, the highest in recent decades. (Gallup)

 

According to an American Action Forum analysis, the Trump Administration scrapped federal regulations at a record pace this year and saved taxpayers $1.3 billion, double the goal set by the president.

 

With just 97 days till Christmas the Wall Street Journal says retailers are struggling to fill seasonal positions ahead of the annual holiday rush, with the number of job openings surpassing the number of hires between March and June for the first time in ten years. Some retailers have started hiring holiday workers earlier this year, offering higher wages and extra perks, and hosting large recruiting fairs.

 

Average fund fees paid by investors decreased 8% in 2017. Morningstar's annual study of U.S. open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds looks at the largest one-year decline ever, and how it saved investors roughly $4 billion in fund expenses. 

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 3% yesterday, testing what has been a psychological level for the yield this year. The 10-year yield has trended higher after it jumped 7 bps -- the most on a jobs report day since January 2017 - on September 7, when the August jobs report showed average hourly earnings grew at their fastest pace of the cycle. Calming global conditions have also helped lift longer-term Treasury yields. (LPL)

 

Eighty-two percent of American meals are prepared at home -- more than were cooked 10 years ago, according to researcher NPD Group Inc. The latest peak in restaurant-going was in 2000, when the average American dined out 216 times a year. That figure fell to 185 for the year ended in February, NPD said. (Bloomberg)

 

US capital expenditures are on the rise, with the $341 billion spent this year, putting it on pace to set a 25-year high. Companies are using the windfall from last year's tax cuts to spend freely, and first-half earnings rose some 25 percent for the S&P 500. (CNBC)

 

Share buybacks total more in 2018 than capital expenditures, the first time at least a decade, according to Goldman Sachs.

 

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



U.S. stocks rebounded nicely last week amid the recovery in global equities. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight gain Friday, its longest winning streak since before the February sell-off. Positive developments in emerging-market countries and U.S. trade officials' efforts to arrange a new round of trade talks with China have boosted the MSCI All-Country World Index to five straight days of gains. (LPL)

After a mixed set of Chinese data on credit and lending conditions last week, the overall picture remains stable. Retail sales rose a solid 9% year over year. Industrial production expanded by 6.1%. (LPL)

Retail sales climb for a seventh month, their longest streak of gains since 2014. Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.1% last month. Consistent growth in retail sales reflects the health of the U.S. consumer, emboldened by fiscal stimulus implemented earlier this year. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP, so it is an important barometer for overall economic health. (LPL)

Amazon is investigating suspected data leaks and bribes of its employees. The actions were designed to give an edge to independent merchants who sell their products on Amazon. (WSJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Labor Department said that consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in August as declines in healthcare and clothing costs offset increases in the price of gasoline and rents.

According to the JOLTS report the number of U.S. job openings increased to 6.94 million in July, a record high. Higher job openings signal a healthy labor market with motivated employers. The more interesting was the quit rate, or voluntary quits as a percent of separations, which climbed to a 17-year high. An increasing number of workers quitting their jobs can put upward pressure on wages, boosting inflationary pressures in the economy.

Cross marketing and media content are all the rage. Mattel is launching a theatrical film division to produce features based on its popular toys like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and other brands. (CNBC)

Hershey is buying Pirate Brands, the makers of the very yummy Pirate’s Booty from B&G Foods for $420 million in cash. (CNBC)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio when Tyler and I will talk about the burning question, “should retirees worry about inflation”.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The Labor Department said U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent in August. Its first drop in 1-1/2 years, as declines in the prices of food and trade services offset an increase in the cost of energy. YOY PPI rose 2.8 percent.

Wells Fargo's plan to reimburse customers who had improperly been sold auto insurance was rejected by regulators. The bank must do more to make sure it has located and compensated every affected driver. (Reuters)

According to Goldman Sachs and Conde Nast’s 2018 Top Brands & Retailers Millennials Love report, Amazon is the leading destination for millennial men, with men ranking the site as their “favorite place to shop” in nearly every category. Men “tend to stick with what they know and like, rather than seek out new products, therefore they turn to Amazon as their one-stop shop.”

Sometimes good marketing ideas go wrong. As part of a Domino's Forever Campaign in Russia, the company offered 100 free pizzas each year for 100 years to customers that got tattoos of the brand's logo on visible parts of their body. Due to the surging number of people getting the tattoo Domino's curtailed the number of accepted winners to 350. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August reached 108.8, a new record in the survey’s history. Small business plans to create new jobs and job openings hit a 45-year high. The survey showed new records of small business owners who believe now is a good time to expand.

On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped the most on a jobs report day since January 2017 after August data showed average hourly earnings grew at their fastest pace of the economic cycle. Accelerating wage growth has re-ignited inflation expectations. (LPL)

ValueInsureds Modern Homebuyer Survey says 63 percent of respondents predicted home prices will see a correction within two years, the highest share since Spring 2016. Asked what will lower home prices, fifty-four percent said rising mortgage rates, 33 percent said the reduction in homeownership incentives under the 2017 tax reform, 16 percent said a stock market correction, and 11 percent said trade wars.

Schmidt's Deodorant, owned by consumer products giant Unilever, will close its Northeast Portland factory and lay off all 57 employees. Workers will lose their jobs effective October 31st. (Oregonian)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



So much for sell in May and going away. The S&P 500 Index has now posted five consecutive monthly gains. This rare feat is actually quite bullish: the S&P 500 has been up a year later in 24 of the 25 times this has happened. The most recent occurrence was actually a year ago, and the S&P 500 gained 17.4% over the ensuing 12 months. (LPL)

Last week, emerging market (EM) stocks officially entered a bear market, posting a 20% decline from their late-January peak. (Yahoo Finance)

On September 14, 2008, the day before Lehman failed, if you had bought the S&P 500 index you be up 130%. You would have been underwater underwater even three years later. But in the last 10 years the S&P 500 is up 130 percent and has posted an annual total return of 11 percent. A 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has returned 8 percent over the same 10 years. This is a great example of it is time in the market, not timing the market that counts. (CNBC)

Starbucks' Frappuccino is getting a makeover. The U.S. coffee giant is putting its drink on a diet, looking to reduce its high sugar levels, which have scared away health-conscious consumers and hurt sales. (WSJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



September has historically been a troublesome month for U.S. stocks. In fact, it has the lowest average return out of all 12 months going back to 1950. So far, September 2018 is off to a tough start, with the S&P 500 down all four days so far this month. Only twice in history has the S&P 500 fallen the first 4 days of September, in 1987 and 2001. (LPL)

 

Nonfarm payrolls rose 201K in August, The unemployment rate (3.9%) remained near its lowest level since 2000. Overall, job growth is slowing, which is expected this late in the cycle, but the labor market remains solid. Average hourly earnings rose 2.9% year over year, its fastest pace of growth in this economic cycle. (LPL)

 

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM's) Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index climbed to 58.5 in August, one of its highest readings of the economic cycle. Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of manufacturing health, rose to a 14-year high last month. With the services and manufacturing sectors firing on all cylinders, the U.S. economy could be poised for another strong quarter of economic growth. (LPL)

 

Costco says same store sales rose 9.5 percent in August. (Yahoo Finance)

 

S&P 500 is up 14 and the NASDAQ is up 37. The MSCI international index is lower.

Oil is up 29 cents at $68.04 a barrel.

Gold is down $3 at $1198 a Troy ounce.

 



The Labor Department says the US economy added 201,000 jobs in the month of August. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.9%. This in conjunction with yesterday’s unemployment report of 203,000 new claims, the lowest level since 1969, shows just how red-hot the job market is.

The Great Oregon Wine Co. has purchased Duck Pond Cellars. The price wasn’t disclosed. Great Oregon is owned by Integrated Beverage Group. Duck Pond, focused on pinot noir and pinot gris. (PBJ)

U.S. trade deficit in July widened by $4.3 billion, the most since March 2015, to $50.1 billion. The U.S. trade deficit has widened for two straight months after $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports were implemented in early July. The widening deficit is further evidence of tariffs' economic drag, which we estimate will weigh on gross domestic product growth this year. (LPL)

Nation’s Restaurant News says 67 percent of restaurant operators “cited increased competition for workers as a key driver in rising costs.”

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio. Tyler and I will discuss this week’s big tech selloff.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Doug Fisher, vice president of Intel's software group and a senior Oregon executive is retiring. Fisher, 57, is an Oregon State University graduate and has worked for Intel for 23 years. (Oregonian)

Delta Dental of California is investing $155 million for a 50 percent ownership stake in Portland-based health insurer Moda. Moda lost $10.1 million in the first half of the year.
Moda's lines of business include health and dental insurance, as well as a specialty pharmacy. (PBJ)

Mortgage Bankers Association says applications to purchase a home increased 1 percent for the week and were 2 percent higher than a year ago.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to a 14-year high of 61.3%.

The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch for August shows a continued decrease in the rates of small business jobs and wage growth, it also reveals that weekly hours worked are on the rise. The top regions for employment growth and wage growth, respectively, are the South and West.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



It's hard to believe, but we are officially in the month of September. Although this means football and cooler weather, it also means a historically poor month for stocks. Since 1950, September has been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500. The good news is when the S&P 500 starts September above its 200-day moving average (like 2018), the returns have been much better. (LPL)
 
The overall trend in CEO optimism has remained largely unchanged, maintaining favorable levels over the past year. In Q2 2018, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 104.1.
 
American Outdoor Brands reported an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share. The parent company of Smith & Wesson was helped by new products and reduced discounts. The company said it would have stronger than expected growth for the current quarter. (CNBC)
 
Uber will start operations in Eugene and Springfield next Thursday. (ERG)
 
Kah-nee-ta Resort & Spa will close for good on today eliminating 146 jobs. Kah-nee-ta opened in 1964. (Oregonian)
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



We start a new month of trading this morning. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher in April, May, June, July, and August only 5 times. 2018 was the 6th time. The good news? In the past instances the final 4 months have never been lower and the usually tricky September is actually quite strong. (LPL)

Personal income rose 0.3% in the month, reducing year-over-year growth to 4.7%. (LPL)

Core personal consumption expenditures (excluding food and energy), the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.0% year over year in July, matching the Fed's target for the first time since 2012.

A federal agency has ruled that Canadian paper imports don't hurt American producers. This eliminates tariffs that had raised prices and squeezed margins at struggling newspapers. (Bloomberg)

The Portland headquartered General Steel Drum company has acquired North Coast Container of Cleveland, Ohio. General Steel Drum is owned by the Stavig family. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. (PBJ)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



It is the last trading day of the month of August. The S&P 500's incredible summer rally continues, as U.S. stocks are on track to post their fifth straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 has also performed surprisingly strong this month, as its 3% gain is its second-biggest rally in August since 2000. (LPL)

The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high for four consecutive days this week. The longest such streak since six in a row to start 2018. The all-time record for consecutive new highs was 12 in a row in 1929, while in more recent times there was a streak of 11 in 1964. Interestingly, this is the first time the month of August has seen four consecutive new highs since 1987. New highs in August are somewhat rare, as since 1950, no month has "fewer" new highs than August. (LPL)

Consumer spending grew 0.4% month over month in July, boosting its year-over-year growth to 5.2%, the strongest pace since October 2014. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. (LPL)

Join us this weekend on this great station for Financial Focus Radio, the truth can wealth building. This way people talk about the coming bear market.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Same store sales at Dick's Sporting Goods stores tumbled 4 percent during the latest quarter. Dick's raised its profit outlook for the full year. Dick's said online sales increased 12 percent during the quarter. (Reuters)

The Mortgage Bankers Association said total home loan application volume decreased 1.7 percent last week.

Tailored Brands said it expects second quarter earnings to be better than expected. The parent of the Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank clothing chains also said Chief Executive would retire at the end of September. (CNBC)

GDP revision reinforces solid second-quarter growth. Gross domestic product growth was revised up to 4.2%. The contribution to output from business spending was 0.15% higher and the contribution from net exports was 0.11% higher. This puts us on track for GDP growth in 2018 to be at or above 3%. (LPL)

Hood River-based, Tofurky, the vegetarian food-maker, is suing Missouri to defend its right to describe its products with meat terminology such as "sausage" and "hot dogs. The Missouri Cattlemen's Assoc supported the new law banning plant based products from using the terms. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      

 



The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 133.4 in August, its highest level since October 2000.
Consumers expecting business conditions will get better over the next six months increased to 24.3 percent.

In June, home prices nationally rose 6.2 percent year-over-year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. That is down from the 6.4 percent annual gain in May.

Campbell Soup will announce this week that it does not plan to sell the entire company, according to sources quoted by the New York Post.

Data for July showed the U.S. merchandise trade deficit widened to $72.2B, its biggest m-o-m increase since March 2015. Last month's growth in the trade deficit was driven by a sharp decline in exports, reflecting the impact of imposed tariffs over the past few months. (LPL)

Record short position, those speculating on the direction of rates in 10-year Treasury futures, has increased to its biggest size on record.

Oreo's parent company Mondelez announced that its two newest iterations of the cookie, hot chicken wing and wasabi-flavored, are now available in China. (Fortune)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                    



Outstanding earnings season by many measures. Second quarter numbers were strong even without the boost from the new tax law, while guidance was generally positive despite tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. With just 15 index constituents left to report, S&P 500 Index earnings rose 25% year over year, nearly matching the 26% growth rate from the quarter before. Even without the boost from tax cuts (estimated 6-7%) earnings growth came in at a still-outstanding 18-19%. (LPL)

The S&P 500 just made its first new high in 7 months last Friday. Since 1950, the S&P 500 had gone more than 6 months without making a new high 18 other times. What happened after that first new high was made? It was higher a year later 17 times. (LPL)

Oregon has been a smoky place this summer and it comes with a cost. Wildfires have cost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival $2 million in lost revenue because of smoky conditions. (AP)

Oregon hazelnut farmers anticipate a bumper crop this fall and projects Oregon production will double over the next few years as newly planted planted acreage reaches maturity. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



The Commerce Department said orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased 1.4 percent in July. Core capital goods orders increased 7.2 percent on a year-on-year basis.
 
If you were looking for relief on your state tax deduction you are going to be disappointed. The Treasury and IRS issued new rules to block high tax states' attempts to circumvent the new $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions. (CNBC)
 
Procter & Gamble (PG) has applied to trademark millennial-friendly internet acronyms including "LOL," "WTF," "FML" and "NBD" for use on soap and cleaning products. (NY Post)
 
In the midst of the China currency and economic concerns of 2015, three years ago was the first time that the Dow ever fell 1,000 points. It didn't close down 1,000 points and on a percentage basis this wasn't the largest drop ever, but it was still a harsh reminder that volatility can come at any time. Only two other times in history has it dropped 1,000 points during the day and both of those were this past February. On a percentage basis, the Dow was down 6.62% at the lows three years ago today. The largest ever was 25.33% during the Crash of '87. (LPL)
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Short positions in Treasury futures were historically high just two months ago, and now they are 50% higher. Many of these short positions were put on over the last six months while the 10-year Treasury yield has hovered in its current 2.8-3.0% range. Yield moves meaningfully below that level could squeeze short positions, pressuring shorts to buy Treasury futures to cover their positions, which could pressure rates downward further. (LPL)

The Wall Street Journal reports that the unemployment rate for Americans ages 16-24 is at its lowest since 1966. The unemployment rate is 9.2 percent, down from 9.6 percent last year. However, the share of young people looking for work is below the peak hit in 1989.

Barron’s says that the “combination of last winter’s brutal cold and this summer’s droughts has hurt” the wheat crop. Prices will reach “levels not seen since 2012,” with the USDA predicting global wheat production will fall to 730 million tons.  

ValueInsured Modern Homebuyer Survey found that in Q3 2018 only 48 percent of Millennials see value in buying a home, a decrease from 54 percent in Q2. Housing “confidence and enthusiasm of Millennials has plummeted to a record low.”

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



Today the current bull market tops the 1990s bull market as the longest ever. However, be aware that the 1990s bull market saw the S&P 500 Index gain 417%, while the current bull market is up approximately 320%—so you can’t call this the greatest bull market…yet. (LPL)

The S&P 500 Index made a new all-time high yesterday its first since January 26, 2018 (LPL)

Treasury yield curve flattens back to decade lows. The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields is now back below 25 basis points. This bout of flattening is mainly being driven by a modest decline in longer-term yields over the past two weeks (as opposed to a rise in short-term yields). With market expectations pricing in a 90% chance of a September rate hike and a 55% chance of a subsequent December hike, upward pressure on the front end of the curve has not waned, despite risk-off sentiment leading to long-end bidding. (LPL)

Nabisco-parent Mondelez has redesigned the packaging of its animal crackers, showing the animals roaming free instead of in cages, after pressure from PETA. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



S&P 500 earnings growth is now tracking to +24.6% year over year for the second quarter. Revenue growth is tracking to +9.4% year over year. (LPL)

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in July, its 26th consecutive monthly gain.  The LEI, which is a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers' new orders, stock prices, and weekly unemployment claims), shows that the economic expansion is still intact and healthy. The LEI is up 6.3% year over year. The longer-term trend in the LEI is especially important, as the LEI has turned negative YOY before every economic recession dating back to the 1970s. (LPL)

Guinness is opening the $90 million Guinness Open Gate Brewery & Barrel House Aug. 3 near Baltimore, its first U.S. brewery in more than 60 years. The attraction is expected to host 300,000 visitors a year. (CNBC)

Constellation Brands who for seven decades has made its money off beer, wine and whiskey, sees its future in marijuana. They will spend about $3.8 billion to boost its stake in Canadian grower Canopy Growth Corp., betting legalization will gain traction around the world and especially in the U.S. (FBN)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                     
 



The S&P 500 Index posted its most volatile week since early June. The index was up about 0.3% for the week, posting and average daily move of 0.7% over the period. The S&P 500 has closed within 2% of record highs for 12 consecutive trading days, the longest such streak since September 2017.  (LPL)

Economic data a mixed bag. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business outlook survey fell to 11.9, a 21-month low. Housing starts grew 0.9% last month (missing expectations of 7.4% growth) after declining 12.3% in June, indicating cooling in U.S. new-home construction. Applications for unemployment benefits fell to 212k last week. The 4-week rolling average for jobless claims is now 214k, hovering near its lowest point of the economic cycle. (LPL)

Intel, Oregon’s largest employer, has purchased a three-year-old Seattle artificial intelligence startup called Vertex.AI. The terms of the deal were not disclosed.
(Oregonian)

SodaStream the Israeli-based at-home carbonated drink-maker agreed to be bought by U.S. beverage giant PepsiCo for $3.2 billion in cash, or $144 per share. (CNBC)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart. 



Concerns about global trade and Turkey shouldn't be dismissed as misplaced or paranoia. Though mostly currency driven, we have seen some signs of fundamental deterioration recently in the form of earnings estimate reductions for the MSCI EM Index. Specifically, over the past three months, EM estimates for the next 12 months have come down by 3.9%, while comparable S&P 500 estimates have risen 3.5%. (LPL)

Wholesale used-vehicle prices climbed 1.51% last month. The increase in prices lifted the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 136.9, the highest level ever recorded by the auto auction company. The index is also up 5.1% in the past year.

The Wall Street Journal reports the USDA monthly world Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, forecast that US soybean production will reach a record-high 4.6 billion bushels in 2018-19.

Bloomberg says Amazon captured around five percent of retail spending in the US last year, excluding cars, car parts and restaurants and bars. Rival Walmart took around 10 percent of such spending. With Amazon’s revenue increasing its share of that spending may rise to six percent this year.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



U.S. stocks halted a multiday tumble yesterday, with the three main equity benchmarks advancing as Turkey’s currency slide abated, allowing investors to focus instead on a healthy domestic economy and strong corporate results.

The National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index rose 0.7 points in July to 107.9. The NFIB said it was the second-highest level in history and just under the 1983 peak.   The single most important issue flagged by small businesses were concerns about the quality of available labor.

The debt burden of U.S. households is the smallest it’s been in nearly 16 years.  Household debt — including mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans and other credit, is $13.29 trillion, which relative to disposable income is the lowest it’s been in 16 years.
Home improvement retailer Home Depot reported earnings and revenue that beat expectations and upped their outlook. It is the continuation of a trend that has persisted for a few years: in the face of lean housing inventory and little new supply on the horizon, Americans are increasingly choosing to take matters into their own hands.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, I’m Tyler Simones



U.S. stocks closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 down for a fourth straight session as the ongoing turmoil in Turkey dampened investors’ appetite for riskier assets.

Don’t look now, but on August 22, 2018, this current bull market in stocks will top the 1990s bull market as the longest ever. However, be aware that the 1990s bull market saw the S&P 500 Index gain 417%, while the current bull market is up approximately 320%—so you can’t call this the greatest bull market…yet.

2nd Quarter earnings season is entering the final stretch. With more than 90% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported second quarter results, year-over-year earnings growth for the index is tracking to an impressive +24.4%, nearly 4% above expectations as of June

Shares of the food distribution giant Sysco were sharply higher yesterday after the food distribution giant reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations.  Sysco’s stock has rallied 33% over the last 12 months.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I’m Tyler Simones



Turkey’s problems are spilling over into the broader markets this morning, as the Lira touched an all-time low against the dollar and plunged 13% overnight as Turkish president Erdogan called on citizens to convert their dollars and gold into Lira.  The Euro also touched a 13 month low against the dollar over concerns of European Banking exposure to Turkey.  

In Delaware, US Federal Judge Leonard Stark has authorized the seizure of Citgo Petroleum to satisfy a Venezuelan government debt owed to a defunct Canadian gold miner.  The ruling could likely set off a scramble among Venezuela’s many unpaid creditors to wrest control of its only obviously seizable U.S. asset, as Venezuela’s oil production continues to plummet.  

With us GDP growing at a 4.1% clip last quarter and the job market solid, consumer inflation has become the wild card for economists. The latest figure, which could be the highest in more than six years, will be released this morning by the Labor Department. Expectations are for CPI to have increased 2.3% Y/Y, and headline CPI (including food and energy) to have reached a 3% Y/Y pace for the first time since December 2011.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management a Registered Investment Advisor I am Josh Fenili.



U.S. stocks closed mostly lower yesterday following a batch of weak earnings reports from high-profile firms such as Walt Disney and Snap.  However, the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to a fifth session as technology shares outperformed the broader market.

China just announced they are slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment, the Chinese commerce ministry said, as the world's largest economies escalated their trade dispute.

The CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, famously tweeted earlier this week that he was considering taking the company private.  Now the Securities and Exchange Commission has made inquiries to Tesla over Elon Musk's going-private tweet, including examining whether the chief executive's statement was factual and why the disclosure was made on Twitter rather than on an official filing.  We are sure to hear more about this in the future.

As we near the end of earnings season, two trends are clear: Profits have gone through the roof, helped by lower corporate income taxes. But sales have also increased remarkably, and that trend started before the tax cuts went into effect.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, I’m Tyler Simones
 



The S&P 500 Index posted its second highest close ever yesterday, less than 0.5% away from a new all-time high. The S&P 500 has now gone 133 trading days (over six months), without a new high. Since the bull market started in March 2009, this is now the second longest stretch without a new high (the longest was May 2015 until July 2016). (LPL)

10-year hits the 3% wall. The 10-year Treasury yield has run up against the psychological 3% level yet again. After closing barely above 3% last Wednesday for the first time since May 22, the 10-year yield has steadily inched back down, currently trading near 2.95%. (LPL)

Tariffs are having little impact on overall earnings guidance. Forward four quarter estimates have impressively risen 0.6%. With less than 100 S&P 500 companies left to report (47 coming this week) suggests tariffs have had little broad impact on companies' outlooks. (LPL)

The Wall Street Journal reports employment in the manufacturing sector has increased since the end of the last recession in 2009, and growth has increased over 2018. Factory hiring is more than twice as strong this year as it was during January- July 2017.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



With 404 S&P 500 Index companies having reported second quarter 2018 earnings results, a solid 79% have exceeded earnings targets, delivering robust 23.5% year-over-year growth on a nearly 3% upside surprise. Revenue growth of 9.2% is a solid 1.1% above expectations. (LPL)

S&P 500 on its hottest streak of the year. The S&P 500 capped its fifth straight positive week. The first such streak since the week ending Dec. 22, 2017. Five-week winning streaks are a rare feat of strength for the S&P 500: the index has posted 8 five-week winning streaks since February 2013 (and five 6-week winning streaks over that same period). The S&P 500 gained 0.8% last week.  (LPL)

More trouble for Wells Fargo. According to the Wall Street Journal it is under scrutiny from federal regulators over the bank's purchase of tax credits designed to fund low income housing.

The laws of economics still apply. Supply and demand rule the day. Oregon report enforcement found nearly 70 percent of the legal recreational marijuana grown goes unsold. (AP)

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 



The Labor Department  says a record 155,965,000 people were employed in July, the 11th record-breaker since President Trump took office 19 months ago. The unemployment rates for adult men (3.4 percent) and Whites (3.4 percent) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.1 percent), and Blacks (6.6 percent) showed little or no change. The unemployment rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 4.5 percent. The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent in July, was unchanged. Hourly earnings rose by 7 cents to $27.05. For the year, hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or 2.7 percent.

Milwaukie, Oregon-based Bob's Red Mill Natural Foods says that Bob Moore will give up the CEO title 40 years.
Dennis Vaughn, the company's chief operating officer and vice president of operations, will take over as CEO. Moore, 89, founded the company in 1978. (PBJ)

Forbes contributor Jon Bird says consumers are “turning a blind eye to the environmental cost of online retail, particularly when it comes to packaging.” For instance, Blue Apron “sends out around 8 million meals a month, each one containing two six-pound ice packs,” and the “freezer pack waste is about 192,000 tons per year.”

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



The US economy added 157,000 jobs in July according to the US Department of Labor. The unemployment rate stands at 3.9%.

Global manufacturing activity is slowing. Markit's global purchasing managers' index slipped to a still expansionary 52.7. Eurozone activity held steady. China's reading slowed for the second straight month, which reflects some impact from ongoing trade disputes. (LPL)
The official ISM Manufacturing Index in the U.S. came in at 58.1 in July, adding to evidence that tariffs and risk of escalation are beginning to impact US manufacturers. However, this reading is still quite strong. (LPL)

U.S. and EM still look like better bargains than Europe. The S&P 500 Index is trading at a reasonable 16.5x earnings estimates for the next four quarters, 2% above the post-1995 average. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, at 11.5x, is trading 3% below its average for this period. Europe, at 14x, is trading 12% above its 23-year average which, given that market's relatively more defensive sector mix, is expensive.

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio. Check listings at www.financialfocusrasdio.com .

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.



U.S. stocks traded mostly lower yesterday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled another imminent rate increase.  Fresh worries over the U.S.-China trade friction dampened investor sentiment although positive results from Apple buoyed the tech sector and helped the Nasdaq to keep a foothold in positive territory.


According to the payroll company ADP companies in the private sector added 219,000 new employees to their payrolls in July, showing that firms are managing to fill a record number of job openings despite growing shortages of skilled labor.


According to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, 80% of the S&P 500 stocks that have reported second-quarter earnings so far have topped profit expectations, well above the historical average of 67%.


Car maker Tesla reported 2nd quarter earnings losing more than expected.  Tesla said they lost $718 million, or $4.22, in the quarter, compared with $336 million, or $2.04 a share, in the year-ago period.  The company continues to have a very high cash burn rate.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, I’m Tyler Simones



US Stocks traded lower yesterday, led lower by the tech heavy NASDAQ which closed at it's lowest level in 3 weeks.
 
Shares of heavy equipment maker Caterpillar traded higher yesterday after the company reported 2nd quarter earnings that rose from a year ago which was a surprise as investors had expected the recently imposed tariffs to hurt CAT's earnings.
 
Shares of the food company Tyson Foods traded sharply lower after the company cut their full year profit guidance on trade uncertainties related to tariffs and volatility in commodity prices.
 
And according to the National Association of Realtors, pending homes sales in the US rose 1% in June which was better than expected.  The housing market increasingly appears to be running on fumes as demand continues to overwhelm supply.

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones



US Stocks closed lower Friday, but were higher on the week thanks to a slew of good earnings reports from some of America's biggest companies.
 
This week will be another busy week for the markets as investors get the July jobs report on Friday and Apple, Tesla and hundreds of other companies earnings reports this week.  All told investors will have to digest 12 major economic reports this week that could be market movers.
 
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week as the have said the economy is growing strongly and inflation is at their 2% target making more rate hikes this year likely.
 
US Consumers are paying more for products from R.V.'s to soda as tariff's on metal and parts are putting pressure on US manufacturers. US Steel and aluminum prices are up 33% and 11%.
 
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management I'm Tyler Simones
 



The Commerce Department said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6 percent last month. Business spending on equipment has risen since the fourth quarter of 2016. Business spending on equipment is being supported by the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion income tax cut package, which came into effect in January.

Mattel lost 56 cents per share last quarter. The toy maker’s revenue also missed forecasts, hurt by the Toys R Us liquidation. The company will be cutting 2,200 jobs or about 22 percent of its global non-manufacturing workforce. (CNBC)

U.S. economy remains the standout. The dip in Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index last month (to 51.6), coupled with stronger readings and slight increases month over month in the U.S., continue to point to the U.S. as the global growth leader. However, Europe's reading (55.1), which is in line with the U.S. (55.5), did stabilize after a sizable drop earlier this year while broader data in Europe has improved in recent months relative to expectations. (LPL)

Join us this weekend for Financial Focus Radio. Check listings at www.financialfocusrasdio.com .

With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.                                      
 


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