Short positions in Treasury futures were historically high just two months ago, and now they are 50% higher. Many of these short positions were put on over the last six months while the 10-year Treasury yield has hovered in its current 2.8-3.0% range. Yield moves meaningfully below that level could squeeze short positions, pressuring shorts to buy Treasury futures to cover their positions, which could pressure rates downward further. (LPL)
The Wall Street Journal reports that the unemployment rate for Americans ages 16-24 is at its lowest since 1966. The unemployment rate is 9.2 percent, down from 9.6 percent last year. However, the share of young people looking for work is below the peak hit in 1989.
Barron’s says that the “combination of last winter’s brutal cold and this summer’s droughts has hurt” the wheat crop. Prices will reach “levels not seen since 2012,” with the USDA predicting global wheat production will fall to 730 million tons.
ValueInsured Modern Homebuyer Survey found that in Q3 2018 only 48 percent of Millennials see value in buying a home, a decrease from 54 percent in Q2. Housing “confidence and enthusiasm of Millennials has plummeted to a record low.”
With Northwest Quadrant Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor I am Troy Reinhart.