The payroll company ADP reported private payrolls expanded by 455,000 in March which was the lowest since August of 2021. ADP’s report for March indicated that hiring was spread evenly around sectors, with leisure and hospitality adding 161,000 to lead the way.

There are now a record 5 million more job openings than unemployed people in the U.S.  An increasing number of Americans quit their jobs in February, while the gap between available positions and the unemployed grew even wider, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The Job Opening and Labor Survey showed that 4.35 million workers left in February, an increase of 94,000 from the previous month. The elevated level of quits is part of what some term the “Great Resignation,” in which workers have been able to leave their current positions for better opportunities.

The bond market is sending a signal that we are headed for a recession.  The yield between the 10 Year Treasury Bond and the 2 Year Treasury Bond inverted yesterday.  The last 9 times that has happened the US economy headed into a recession 12 months later.